French elections: In search of a lost majority
FEPS Europe
The Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) is the think tank of the progressive political family at EU level
In the electoral night of 9 June, after the outcome of the European elections, President Macron made an unexpected announcement, calling for snap national elections. He considered them essential, after the?Rassemblement National?emerged as the first party in the EP elections, winning a third of the votes. In parallel, his own party?Ensemble?had lost close to half of its seats and, simultaneously, the?Parti Socialiste?made an improbable revival, doubling its seats. Many analysts wondered if the presidential gamble was a reckless one, or one able to revitalise French democracy.?
Two thirds of French citizens voted on 30 June and 7 July, electing 577 deputies of the new?Assemblée Nationale. Despite the concerns about the success of the far right in the first round, in the end, it was the left-wing New Popular Front that won 180 seats. It was followed by the presidential?Ensemble?with 159 MPs and the National Rally and its allies collecting 142 MPs. For a majority, 289 seats are required in the French parliament, but the constitution leaves space for interpretation. So, there are several solutions for forming a new government. However, this electoral triathlon heavily hindered President Macron's position internally and externally. This change is bound to be an important factor during the ongoing negotiations around the EU top positions and work plan for the legislative period 2024-2029.
One message that resonated across the continent is that the radical right can be halted and that the centre-left's revival is always possible. The expectation is that the parties forming the victorious New Popular Front will be determined to remain united. However, it is evident that France's new political landscape, the practice in the French Parliament, not used to having three blocks and -the nature of the alliance that the left created as an alternative to both Macron and Bardella, will make it challenging for them to deliver the change they had promised.
By calling a snap general election three weeks ago, President Macron had wished to 'clarify' the political situation. He certainly did not get what he was hoping for. His 'Ensemble' coalition came second and lost 72 seats. His two political opponents – the New Popular Front (NFP, a left-wing coalition) and National Rally (RN, far right) fared well in many respects.
The 2017 presidential election marked a major shake-up in French politics, with the election of the youngest president of the 5th Republic, who had entered politics two years earlier. In just a few months, Emmanuel Macron shattered the party system that had gradually taken hold in France over the previous forty years. In the face of the great anxiety gripping part of Western society due to the populist wave that has led to Brexit and then the election of Donald Trump, he had brilliantly succeeded in opposing an 'elite populism' and offering an alternative to the more traditional populism embodied by Marine Le Pen on the right and Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left.
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When President Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve the French National Assembly, he chose the shortest timeline allowed by the French constitution. This was meant to make it impossible for all left-wing and green parties, which had just fought against each other in European elections, to rally together. But in five days, they built the ‘New Popular Front’ – a reference to the 1936 Popular Front. They decided on who would run in which constituency, agreed on a common programme with strong social and ecological priorities, that would end seven years of Macron’s conservative-liberal policies. And on Sunday, the second round of general elections, with the highest turnout in four decades, brought a surprise: the left wing came first in the general elections.
By Philippe Marlière , Armin Puller, Ruxandra Ivan and Robert Manwaring ?
The?publication series ‘Next Left Country Case Studies'?is an outcome of the work within the Next Left Research Programme by FEPS and?Karl-Renner-Institut.
The series explores the state of?Social Democracy in France, Austria, Romania and Australia, by looking at their political history, policies and prospects. It then shares the best practices for the Social Democratic movement to move forward on a global scale.?
In 'Perspectives on the French Parti Socialiste’s downfall',?Philippe Marlière?analyses the French Socialist Party, focusing on the party’s turbulent history from its formation to its present state of constantly fleeing electorate.
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