Freight Forward: US Import Forecasts Revised Up

Welcome to Freight Forward, where each Monday, I’ll recap what happened in supply chains the previous week through JOC.com articles and additional sources and also what to expect for the week ahead.

I’m Cathy Roberson, a supply chain writer and researcher. For this weekly series, I serve as a research analyst for the Journal of Commerce (JOC), for whom I identify trends, provide thoughts and input into stories, and assist with air express and parcel last-mile queries.with air express and parcel last-mile queries.

Ocean Freight

• Journal of Commerce 'Newsmakers': Kuehne + Nagel’s Michael Aldwell, Lori Ann LaRocco
• Column - MPV operators largely dismissive of US shipbuilding act, Susan Oatway
• The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), expects imports for February to record a marginal gain of just 0.2% from a year ago, but that’s an upgrade from the 4.5% decline forecast in the January GPT writes Laura Robb

“Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, said in a statement accompanying the February GPT.

• The Premier Alliance comprising of Ocean Network Express (ONE), HMM and Yang Ming cleared its last regulatory hurdle after the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) completed its review of the partnership and allowed the agreement to go into effect writes Michael Angell.
• The restructuring of carrier alliances is causing a short-term capacity shift in the trans-Pacific, giving cargo owners about 20% more functional capacity this month compared with a year ago but still 8% less than in January, according to eeSea writes Laura Robb.
• The downward movement in multipurpose vessel (MPV) benchmark indicators, the Toepfer Multipurpose Index (TMI) and the One World Shipbrokers’ Market Sentiment Index (MSI), reflect the challenges facing the sector from tariffs and emerging trade wars, continued Red Sea shipping disruption and uncertain geopolitics writes Carly Fields.

• Tighter European emissions regulations have pushed multipurpose ship operators toward alternative propulsion technologies to achieve compliance. MOL Drybulk and Jumbo Maritime are the latest multipurpose vessel (MPV) operators to install power assistance technologies to improve fuel efficiency and cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions writes Keith Wallis.
• While AI is taking hold of most categories of cargo movement, the project and breakbulk sectors are lagging writes Eric Johnson.
• The large financial benefit to ocean carriers of diverting ships around southern Africa propelled Maersk to its third-most-profitable year in history, with flat volume growth offset by rates that remained significantly elevated compared with 2023 writes Greg Knowler.
• Exporters shipping low-value products from Brazil to the US are taking advantage of depressed container spot rates driven by retreating volumes, a move forwarders say will hasten a rate recovery given the minimal capacity additions expected on the trade writes Laura Robb.
• Shippers in Bangladesh who rely on feeder networks for trade flows appear to be missing out on potential supply chain gains from Gemini Cooperation’s hub-and-spoke model designed around dedicated shuttle operations writes Bency Mathew.
• Ocean carriers are employing “strategic blanked sailings” on the Asia-Europe trade lane as they manage the transition from old services to the new alliance networks, according to maritime intelligence firm eeSea writes Greg Knowler.

• So far, DSV’s acquisition of DB Schenker has received approvals from 33 regulatory bodies have been received, with the US and EC two of the three jurisdictions that are still outstanding. All 36 must give the green light before the lengthy integration process of DSV’s largest acquisition to date can begin, writes Greg Knowler.

Air

• Air Cargo News - Regarding de minimis, Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said that even with the need to pay duties, goods are still likely to be cheaper than buying them from retail stores. "China e-commerce was not set up to take advantage of de minimis loopholes - it has taken advantage of consumer demand for cheap, fast goods," he said.
• The Loadstar - Chinese New Year blurs visibility in an uncertain airfreight market

Inland

• Column - North American intermodal would escape tariffs largely unscathed, Larry Gross
• Ocean Network Express (ONE) and logistics provider LX Pantos formed a joint venture, Boxlinks, that will offer shippers the opportunity to move freight from inland US markets to the US West Coast in ocean containers rather than 53-foot domestic boxes writes Ari Ashe.
• Despite rising rail rates in Southern California, intermodal shippers saved more than 20% versus truckload on one-off business across the US in Q4, the third consecutive quarter in which spot market savings far exceeded historical norms, according to the latest Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index (ISI) writes Ari Ashe.

• Large US truckload carriers are increasingly focused on dedicated trucking because of the capacity needs of customers and a desire for more stable revenue and margins, with many companies moving greater numbers of trucks and drivers to dedicated divisions writes Bill Cassidy.

Parcel

• Supply Chain Dive - The USPS reported its FY2025 Q1 earnings (ending Dec 31) this past week. Overall revenue increased 4.1% but there was a 3.1% drop in volume and a 0.9% decline in revenue for its parcel services group.
• FedEx announced it acquired RouteSmart Technologies. According to the press release, “FedEx has been a long-standing customer of RouteSmart, using its Routing as a Service (RaaS) product in its ground operations for many years. RaaS serves as the backbone for the internal FedEx Route Optimization (FRO) tool, which the company is rolling out globally as part of its ongoing network transformation.”

“…Through this acquisition, we will use RouteSmart’s expertise and proven technology platform to accelerate the deployment of a common route optimization capability for FedEx operations that will enable our team members to work safer and smarter as they deliver superior service to our customers,” said Raj Subramaniam, president and chief executive officer, FedEx Corporation.

That's it for now. Thank you for reading! For readers interested in reading more Journal of Commerce stories, click here to subscribe. Enter code FFNL20 at checkout to receive a 20% discount on any subscription option. (Note that this is only for first-time subscribers or for upgrading a current subscription). What did I miss? Have a question? Let me know in the comments. I’ll be checking back throughout the week to answer questions, address comments, and share additional insights. In the meantime, here’s wishing everyone a good freight week ahead.

-Cathy