Free Agent Report: Aaron Connolly, a Premier League-Ready Talent on the Market

Scouted/Analysed by Constadinos Segredos

Aaron Connolly Scouting Report

Player Bio

• Name: Aaron Connolly
• Position: Striker(Complete Forward)
• Age: 24
• Height: 180 cm
• Weight: 77 kg
• Preferred Foot: Right
• Nationality: Republic of Ireland
• Market Value: €3.30M
• Current Status: Free Agent (2023-2024 season ended)

Scout Report

At 24, Aaron Connolly has emerged as a striking force to be reckoned with in the Championship league. Donning the jersey for Hull City, Connolly’s forceful presence sees him sitting in the top percentile for goal threat (80.48%) and goal efficiency (77.78%) amongst his peers in the striking role. It's a testament to his strong goal-scoring ability, consistently finding the net at an enviable rate of 91.8 goals per 90 minutes, and showcasing his dangerous potential on the pitch.

In addition to his notable goal-scoring exploits, Connolly demonstrates a strong knack for progressive carries (34.69%), demonstrating his ability to drive the ball forward effectively. However, his progressive passing (17.46%) and pass accuracy per 90 (24.59%) leave room for improvement, indicating a propensity to lose possession in the final-third. Furthermore, while Connolly stands tall as a goal threat, his assist rate is alarmingly low, sitting at a mere 10.66% per 90 minutes. Combined with his mediocre chance creation percentile (49.02%), it reveals a slight over-reliance on goal-scoring and a potential weakness in playmaking.

Still, Connolly’s ball retention percentile (65.08%) confirms his capability to hold onto the ball, but his penchant for ball recovery (19.04%) is relatively low, indicating room for enhancement in his defensive game. Best recognized for his time at Hull City, his performance has remained eye-catching, but he finds himself needing to develop a more all-rounded game to make a significant impact in higher-ranking leagues. Despite these areas for improvement, Aaron Connolly remains a potent and goal-scoring ability makes him a potent weapon any club would be thrilled to boast in their attacking arsenal.

Key Stats Overview (2023-2024)

Championship, Hull City (2023-2024)

• Non-Pen xG: 0.49
• Shots: 3.04
• xGOT: 0.50
• Shots on Target: 1.33
• xG Overperformance: -0.04
• xA Underperformance: 0.07
• Assists: 0.00
• Progressive Distance Carried: 32.22
• Dribbles: 0.59
• Dribble Success %: 38.10

Advanced Metrics

• Goal Threat: 0.78
• Goal Efficiency: 0.63
• Ball Retention: 0.70
• Chance Creation: 0.52
• Ball Recovery: 0.41
• Ball Progression: 0.65

Stat Maps

• Goal Efficiency: Displays Aaron Connolly's shooting accuracy and conversion rates in comparison to his xG and overall league metrics.
• Ball Retention: Highlights his ability to maintain possession under pressure.
• Chance Creation: Showcases his playmaking abilities from open play and set-pieces.
• Ball Recovery: Shows his contribution to regaining possession in defensive transitions.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Excellent goal-scoring ability and efficiency
• Strong progressive carrying ability, pushing forward play effectively
• Good positional awareness and knack for finding space

Weaknesses:

• Relatively low assist rate and chance creation, indicating a reliance on goal-scoring
• Inconsistent ball recovery, suggesting room for improvement defensively
• Prone to losing possession, especially in high-pressure situations

Aaron Connolly's Shot Summary

In the 2023-2024 season, Aaron Connolly took 41 shots, scoring 8 goals. This output came from an Expected Goals (xG) of 6.62, averaging 0.16 xG per shot.

• Right Foot: 4 goals from 27 shots. A 14.81% conversion rate. 0.13 xG per shot.
• Left Foot: 3 goals from 10 shots. A 30.00% conversion rate. 0.28 xG per shot.
• Headers: 1 goal from 4 headed attempts. A 25.00% conversion rate. 0.05 xG per shot.

Player Similarity: Aaron Connolly vs. Brandon Thomas-Asante

Comparison Overview

Both Aaron Connolly and Brandon Thomas-Asante have shown themselves to be effective strikers in the English Championship, displaying distinct strengths and areas for development. Below is a detailed comparison of their key attributes and performance metrics:

Strengths and Differences

Goal Efficiency and Threat:

• Aaron Connolly shows a slightly higher goal efficiency with a more consistent shot output (3.04 shots per game) compared to Thomas-Asante (2.44 shots per game). Connolly's conversion is a touch more refined, though he falls short on overperformance relative to his xG.
• Brandon Thomas-Asante provides comparable goal-scoring potential but tends to underperform relative to his expected goals metric, indicating room for better finishing.

Chance Creation and Assists:

• Brandon Thomas-Asante stands out in chance creation, offering a better assist rate (0.07 per game) compared to Connolly's lack of assists, showing his dual capability as a scorer and creator.

Dribbling and Ball Progression:

• Thomas-Asante excels in dribbling, completing 1.22 dribbles per game with a success rate of 54.40%, significantly higher than Connolly's 0.59 dribbles and 38.10% success rate. This highlights Thomas-Asante's advantage in taking on defenders and creating space through individual skill.
• Connolly's progressive distance carried (32.22 meters) is close to Thomas-Asante’s 36.89 meters, showing both players' ability to advance play from deeper positions, although Thomas-Asante edges slightly ahead in overall progression.

Ball Retention and Recovery:

• Connolly displays solid ball retention metrics but lags behind in defensive recoveries, an area where Thomas-Asante also struggles but with slightly better numbers.

Conclusion of Similarity

While Aaron Connolly and Brandon Thomas-Asante both operate effectively as goal-oriented forwards, Thomas-Asante provides a broader skill set in terms of dribbling and assisting, which adds a dynamic edge to his play. Connolly, on the other hand, offers a more specialized scoring threat with efficient shot output. Both players could be valuable assets to mid-table Premier League clubs, with Connolly suited for roles emphasizing direct goal-scoring and Thomas-Asante offering versatility in attack creation.

Conclusion

Aaron Connolly’s performance with Hull City in the Championship and his previous experience in the Premier League make him a strong candidate for a mid-table Premier League side like Fulham, Crystal Palace, or Ipswich. His strengths in goal-scoring and progressive play, coupled with some fine-tuning in defensive contributions and playmaking, suggest that Connolly is ready for the challenge and could be a valuable asset to these clubs.

Stats via scoutingstats.ai & fbref.com