France’s Role in the Creation of Modern Cambodia and Laos: A Counterfactual Analysis
The modern states of Cambodia and Laos exist largely due to French colonial intervention in Southeast Asia. Before France established its protectorates over these territories in the 19th century, Cambodia was a weak kingdom struggling under the dominance of Siam (modern Thailand) and Vietnam, while Laos was fragmented and largely under Siamese control. Without French intervention, these territories might have been absorbed into neighboring powers, altering the map of Southeast Asia as we know it today. This essay explores France’s role in securing Cambodian and Laotian independence and presents alternative scenarios had France not intervened.
Cambodia: A Kingdom on the Verge of Absorption
By the early 19th century, Cambodia was caught in a power struggle between its two dominant neighbors: Siam and Vietnam. Following centuries of decline from its Khmer Empire peak, Cambodia was effectively a vassal state, oscillating between Siamese and Vietnamese control.
When France arrived in the mid-19th century, Cambodia’s King Norodom (Ang Duong’s son) sought French protection to escape domination by both Siam and Vietnam. In 1863, France established Cambodia as a protectorate, forcing Siam to relinquish its influence in 1867. This intervention effectively preserved Cambodia as a distinct political entity, preventing its full annexation by either neighbor.
Laos: A fragmented and peripheral region
Unlike Cambodia, Laos was not a unified kingdom but a collection of loosely affiliated principalities, remnants of the former Lan Xang Kingdom (1353 - 1707). After Lan Xang collapsed, its successor states - Luang Prabang, Vientiane, and Champasak - became tributaries of Siam.
Siamese Control (18th - 19th Century): By the early 19th century, Laos was under firm Siamese rule, with Vientiane being destroyed in 1828 after a failed rebellion by King Anouvong. Siam deported much of the Lao population to the Korat Plateau (in modern Thailand), leaving Laos depopulated and economically weak.
French Intervention (1893): France, seeking to expand its Indochinese colony, used the pretext of Siamese “encroachments” on Vietnamese tributary states to force Siam to cede all Lao territories east of the Mekong. This action effectively created modern Laos, separating it from what is now northeastern Thailand.
Alternative scenarios without French colonialism
If France had not arrived in the mid-19th century, the political fate of Cambodia and Laos would have been dramatically different. The following scenarios explore plausible outcomes based on historical trends.
Scenario 1: Absorption into Thailand (Siam)
One of the most likely outcomes is that both Cambodia and Laos would have been fully incorporated into Siam. By the mid-19th century, Siam was already exerting strong control over these territories:
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Had Siam retained control, modern Cambodia and Laos might not exist as independent states. Instead, the Khmer and Lao peoples would be ethnic minorities within a larger Thai kingdom. However, Siam’s control over Cambodia could have led to resistance from the Khmer, especially given their distinct cultural identity.
Scenario 2: Absorption into Vietnam
Alternatively, if Vietnam had managed to consolidate its dominance over Cambodia before the arrival of France, Cambodia could have been absorbed into the Nguy?n Dynasty’s expanding territory. Emperor Gia Long and Minh Mang had already integrated parts of southern Cambodia into Vietnamese administration, renaming areas like Prey Nokor into Saigon.
Laos, however, would have been less likely to fall under Vietnamese control due to its distance from Vietnam’s core territories.
Scenario 3: A buffer zone between Siam and Vietnam
Another possibility is that Cambodia and Laos would have continued as buffer states between Siam and Vietnam, but with fluctuating levels of autonomy. If neither power fully annexed them, Cambodia and Laos might have remained in a similar position to 19th-century Burma - nominally independent but under strong external influence.
This scenario assumes that neither Siam nor Vietnam could decisively conquer the region, leading to prolonged instability and shifting alliances. Over time, European colonial influence (perhaps from Britain rather than France) might have still played a role in shaping these states.
Scenario 4: Chinese intervention and influence
Although China historically exercised suzerainty over Vietnam and exerted influence in the region, it did not directly control Laos or Cambodia. However, in the absence of French colonialism, a weakened Vietnam and a fragmented Southeast Asia could have led China to expand its sphere of influence, possibly through tributary relationships rather than direct colonization.
A Chinese-influenced Cambodia and Laos might have seen governance structures similar to Vietnam’s historical relationship with the Qing Dynasty - formally independent but subordinate to Chinese hegemony.
The existence of modern Cambodia and Laos as independent states is largely a result of French colonial intervention in the 19th century. Before French arrival, Cambodia was on the brink of being absorbed by either Siam or Vietnam, while Laos was already under Siamese control. Without France, it is likely that Cambodia and Laos would have been divided between their stronger neighbors, with Siam annexing most of Laos and Cambodia, while Vietnam could have controlled Cambodia’s southern regions.
While colonialism imposed significant changes, France inadvertently preserved the territorial integrity of Cambodia and Laos, ensuring their survival as distinct nations. Had France not intervened, the ethnic and political landscape of Southeast Asia might look vastly different today, with Cambodia and Laos possibly existing only as cultural regions within larger states rather than as sovereign nations.