Framing the dual challenge
BP has just launched its latest Energy Outlook.
With so much happening in the energy world - and at such a fast pace - it’s impossible to predict the future. But the Energy Outlook provides a structure and a discipline to our thinking as we consider tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities.
More than in previous editions, this year’s Outlook brings into sharper focus how the industry is changing. And it shows how our future is framed by the dual challenge of providing more energy with fewer emissions.
Scale of the dual challenge
I was struck by new analysis of the relationship between improved access to energy and better living conditions.
The Outlook found that 80% of the world’s population currently live in countries with relatively low energy consumption. And, we know that increases in energy consumption tend to go hand-in-hand with significant improvements in people’s quality of life.
In 20 years’ time, even with energy consumption rising by a third, 75% of the world’s population might still be living in countries with relatively low energy consumption levels.
Meanwhile, the report projects that, on current trends, carbon emissions could grow by almost 10% by 2040, while they need to fall by around half to be consistent with the Paris goals.
I think that gives a sense of the sheer scale of the both sides of the dual challenge.
New scenarios
As always, the Outlook looks at a range of possible scenarios of how the energy transition might evolve. This year the team has also explored some new themes that are high on the global agenda:
- One of these is what could happen in a world with more barriers to trade – something that could certainly interrupt the global flow of energy.
- Another considers how the possible impact of increasing controls on the use of plastics -- an issue receiving growing public attention.
- And in transport, it looks at the likely combined impact of applying a whole range of measures designed to reduce carbon emissions.
Animation
There’s clearly a huge amount to discuss in this report, which you can find here, and much to learn.
I urge you to read the report. And to get you started, we have put together a two-minute animation, highlighting the main findings that you can see here.
We welcome your feedback, so please let us know what you think using the comments below.
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RBM Kpk & Afghanistan Export, Sustainability Ambassador Team Pakistan ????
5 年The key challenge would be the massive change in environment that has already been started. Can not predict future in existing outlook and energy structure
Bring JOY to work!!
5 年Thoughts and take aways: Behavior Management. Workforce. Diversity. Inclusion.
Consultant at TILII India
5 年Disquieting that the report projects that with current trends, carbon emissions could grow by almost 10% by 2040, while they need to fall by around half to be consistent with the Paris goals. A lot more needs to be done by policy makers for our blue planet to survive. Reminded of that sweet saying: We live on a blue planet that circles around a ball of fire next to a moon that moves the sea, and you don’t believe in miracles?
Senior Production Operator at BP
5 年While oil took almost 45 years to go from 1% of global energy to 10%, and gas took more than 50 years. It is satisfying to see that based on the report, renewables are expected to do so within 25 years.