A framework for what comes next

On approximately Day 30 and counting of staying at home due to COVID-19 for much of the US, it feels both too soon and not soon enough to think about what comes next. It makes sense to do for the sake of being more prepared coming out of the quarantine than we were going into it, as well as to give minds stuck in stasis something to look forward to.

And yet, the crystal ball is incredibly foggy these days, as witnessed by stock indices viciously oscillating daily. When we at long last emerge from our front doors, how will the world be different? Which changes will stick, and what will revert back?

The predictions business is a tough racket, so let me avoid being the Professor Trelawney of the LinkedIn set. However, I will offer a few questions that I think can help frame up how the post-quarantine world will likely look, especially if applied to specific situations by experienced and informed minds in those areas.

1.What did we learn was really needed vs. what we could do without?

Aka "the storage test." As we make things temporarily inaccessible to declutter or facilitate a move, we inevitably realize that we didn't need half the stuff (or more... sometimes much more)... never missed it, didn't really use it in the first place, just felt like we should have it around out of habit, sentimentality, obligation, or to feed our inner hoarder.

This holds true for the processes we build into our personal and business routines: trips and conferences, requirements and procedures, resources and fixtures. Some of it we needed, and some not so much. We'll want to bring back or maintain the essential and consider ditching the ceremonial.

A few examples:

• What we really need: regular 1:1 and team connectivity, routines to help keep work and life from blurring, strong coordination and communication (especially when things are changing rapidly), the ability to reallocate resources quickly, programs to help those most in need, business continuity plans and supplies for emergencies
• What we can do without: co-location and physical presence for many jobs and processes, many subscriptions / vendors / events that had been essentially set to auto-renew, work uniforms and formality

2.What aspects turned out to be significantly better or worse?

One of the defining characteristics of mankind is our ability to adapt. We take that natural survival instinct that every living being has, and we ratchet it up to the nth degree incredibly quickly (although too often with little regard for the surrounding environment).

In a month, we have adapted a lot, to be able to shelter and stay 6+ feet away from others. We have converted from physical to virtual everything we could. We changed long-standing practices across society and our economy, as well as in specific sectors (e.g., no change fees for airlines).

When the physical becomes possible again, we'll see conscious choices to reject or accept the changes based on what registered as better or worse (for key decision-makers, for customers and/or consumers, and for the overall ecosystem). A few themes in this version for "for better or worse":

• Significantly better: flexibility, greater accessibility of content, time and opportunity to reinitiate past relationships and strengthen current ones, innovation out of necessity, a blossoming of content amid unlocked libraries and readily accessible tools to create, motivation to accelerate digital transformation and embrace change, reduced environmental impact
• Significantly worse: operational challenges for essential goods and services that require physical presence, stock-outs and extreme scarcity, physical and psychological limitations to pursuing new experiences, lack of job mobility, people who can't cope with change being left behind

3.What material changes made would be too costly and/or time-consuming to reverse?

As a parent, I might have used the admonition "Your face could get stuck that way," once or twice... yesterday. While concept #2 above assumes optionality, some of the steps we and others have taken to adapt to COVID-19 might not leave us with a choice when the crisis subsides.

You can consider a few lenses to diagnose where we've crossed the rubicon:

• Legal / contractual: e.g., renegotiated agreements to better protect from "black swan" risks
• Operational: e.g., virtualization of some candidate assessment and onboarding processes could be more efficient and scalable, the middlemen in some processes can be cut out altogether
• Economical: e.g., bankruptcies and severely weakened competitors leading to consolidation in some sectors
• Consumer / customer expectations: e.g., the truncation or even elimination of media windowing, as consumers expect immediacy and found the home theater was an acceptable substitute to the movie theater

4.Did the catalyst for change rise to the level of an existential threat, and is it still present?

Finally, stepping way back from all the small changes, we can ask ourselves whether anything will fundamentally change on the whole. The other side of mankind's adaptability is our penchant to look past the trauma and toward normality - selective memory as a coping mechanism. This isn't the first time we've lived in extreme times; witness world wars, terrorist attacks, and even prior pandemics, no matter how damaging or lethal. There's a reason why history tends to repeat itself.

What's required to catalyze change on a broad scale is an existential threat, wherein if we don't change, we will cease to be. A month of home confinement for much of the global population proves COVID-19 achieved this condition in the minds of many. The real test, though, will be once isolation ends. How will we regard the threat: a powder keg against which we must practice constant vigilance, or just another Wikipedia reference?

While on the margins a lot will change because of COVID-19, the answer to that final question will determine how close the new normal will really be to the old normal.

The views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of my current or past employers. If you would like to read more of my writing, you can follow me here on LinkedIn and/or on Twitter at @chrislouie.

You can also read a few of my other LinkedIn posts:

• 12 Questions Managers Should Ask Themselves For an Inclusive Hiring Effort
• Embracing "Why" is Key to D&I
• Writing My Way [in]