FPL: Seagulls on the hunt?

A few days ago, Malph Minns had tagged me in a post about FPL.(https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/malphminns_the-biggest-and-most-competitive-fpl-league-activity-7142818774218375169-QGyV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop)

To my joy he'd posted the league standings in the Sports Industry League and paid his due acknowledgments to the contenders - past and present.

As it stands while he makes this league his own at halfway stage, a 50-point lead keeps Liverpool fan Amar Singh at the top of pile while others chase in an herculean effort to wipe that gap. Will he be able to go on and win it? Dare to Dream?

Anyways, there are 18 more GW's to cover up and it is time for the 'analyst' in me to analyze and recommend a pick in each position for medium to long term duration.

As we plan to play catchup to the league leader, there is a point where we have to take punts. To do so, I intend to discuss three Brighton Hove and Albion (BHAFC) assets for the run-in as we enter the crunch stage of the season.

Why Brighton?

BHAFC face only one team with a Fixture Difficulty Ranking (FDR) of greater than 2 (FDR of 3 vs Spurs) in the next seven games till March first week.

With return of key assets such as Estupinian (￡4.9m), Mitoma (￡6.4m) and Adingra (￡5.0m) (from International duty) in some time, Brighton could might well be there and thereabouts for a Europa League or Conference League spot.

Brighton have been an hit and miss team this season, largely down to being plagued by injuries at once. But sure indeed, they are a midtable force who love the attention they get with the brand of football they play and the results they produce.

Goal Keeper (GK)

With Clean Sheets (CS) hard to come by this season for Brighton (one in 20 games - vs WHUFC in GW 20), it is hard to convince any FPL player - casual or serious to invest a transfer for a Steele (￡4.2m) or a Verbruggen (￡4.4m).

Hence, I looked at the other three positions and you might agree with some if not all.

Defender (DF)

With users looking for value in points for a defender apart from keeping a keen eye on their attacking forays, positions in final third, types of passes they make, attacking passes in the final third, movement in the attacking half, etc. A visualization portraying attacking intent gave a few results to ponder over.

Pervis Estupinan (￡4.9m) stood out stats wise with attacking returns in four of the just eight games that he has featured in.

Among all defenders, he his 5th in Expected Goal Involvements (xGI) accumulated even after missing 11 games through injury. A pass receiving rate of 63% shows his presence high up down the wing to not only receive those passes but also his involvement in build-up play. He is joint 6th (with Joao Pedro) among his Brighton team mates for Progressive passes made. With a healthy ownership of 18.9%, he is worth having a look.

Alfie Doughty (￡4.4m) from Luton Town is also another name which caught the eye in the process of getting a budget point scoring defender in a team. Remember the name!

Midfielder (MID)

With only 5 midfield places in a squad of fifteen, it is a common strategy to stack up on premium midfielders such as Son (￡9.8m), Salah (￡13.2m), Kevin De Bruyne (￡10.2m), etc but as we inch closer to squad completion it is smart to look for low value mid to high return performing midfielder. Games coming thick and fast and injuries waiting at the door step, it becomes imperative to have a squad player who is available for points. Visualization below shows a plethora of options at disposal now that Salah and Son are at international duty.

Pascal Gro? (￡6.4m) stands out of the pack with his omnipresence on the pitch besides creativity and attacking stats. The manager relying on him to fill in at right-back or left-back in times of injury embodies his importance in their high pressing setup. His seven attacking returns out of the eighteen games that he has featured in is the top most for all players within the Brighton squad.

His 154 progressive passes (Completed passes that move the ball towards the opponent's goal line at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any completed pass into the penalty area. Excludes passes from the defending 40% of the pitch) is the highest in the Brighton squad outlining his importance in the setup where the finishers might be the likes of Joao Pedro, Mitoma or Evan Ferguson, but the role of creator-in-chief lies in the humble hands of Pascal Gro?. All of which explains as to why his xGI (8.10) is highest in the Brighton squad. At a meagre ownership of 4.2%, he is one to be kept on the watchlist to track for sure, if not an immediate must have transfer.

Michael Olise (￡5.9m) is another such midfielder in the same price bracket yet to hit the ceiling but to have an eye on.

Forward (FWD)

With Kane's departure to Germany, it has forced the manager's hand to grant one spot out of the three to Erling Haaland (￡13.9m) because of the way he has demolished goal scoring records in the Premier League set for years within his first season. The second spot is mostly been occupied by the likes of either Ollie Watkins (￡8.9m), Julian Alvarez (￡7.0m), Dominic Solanke (￡7.1m) or Alexander Isak (￡7.6m). Such selections leave just enough room for a third striker. It is a blessing in disguise to have a third striker who scores regular points but is also on penalty duties. Isn't it? Visualization below shows the craft available for artists like us to maximize.

(Note: Kindly ignore the likes of Salah, Son, Richarlison, Mbuemo, Bowen, Saka, Gordon and Brennan Johnson in the viz as they are categorized as Forwards by Data publisher FBREF)

Joao Pedro (￡5.4m), a classified striker in the game on penalty duties, fits perfectly as a third striker for users who wish to explore the best out of a 3-4-3 or a 4-3-3 formation. His numbers reflect on the higher side as he has scored all of the four penalties that Brighton has been awarded and he has taken, nevertheless he is a budget option to explore.

His six attacking returns is second only to Pascal Gro? (7) within the Brighton squad. Nonetheless, his positioning and movement enables him to receive 125 Progressive passes (metric takes into consideration how many times a player receives a forward pass, that either moves up the field a total distance over ten yards, or into the penalty area. Excludes passes from the defending 40% of the pitch), which is third in the squad and top amongst his forward compatriots. Now that Brighton are suffering with injuries in attacking positions, not only his minutes but his starts look more likely than his competitors Evan Ferguson (￡5.9m) and Danny Welbeck (￡5.7m).

With VAR practically manning the entire game, chances are he might be taking more penalties by the end of the season and the fact that Brighton do not feature in the Europa league till the second week of March ensures De Zerbi does not have to focus on any competition apart from the League and the FA Cup.

Alexander Isak (￡7.6m) is another name in the hat who is one for the time when their fixtures turn from GW 23 onwards.

That's it for now. I will let you all come up with your own insights based on your experience in the game. Enjoy the season, until then, ciao!!!