The Fourth Turning

Today at a Glance:

• Gen X is a cohort we don't hear too much focus on. While Gen Z and Gen Alpha are undoubtedly your future consumers, catering to Gen X is critical as there are opportunities on the table today
• Regulation, Tokenization, and Security are the key themes that Biota uncovered from her three days at Permissionless in Austin
• Capital One Venture X Business is the new charge card that has entered the Small Business space and is dialing up the heat in an already hot space

The Fourth Turning is a fantastic book, albeit dense, and as I was going through Carol Wong-Li 's Marketing to Gen X report, a number of the characteristics of Gen X described in this book appear to be validated by Carol in our consumer research. It is fascinating how each generational archetype is associated with certain traits and roles during the different turnings in the cycles of history. Per Strauss and Howe, the authors of the book, in a period of crisis and upheaval (fourth turning), the "Nomad" generation (Gen X) is seen as playing a critical role in challenging and reforming existing institutions and norms. A few key characteristics outlined are:

1. Adaptive - Pragmatic, resourceful, and adaptable
2. Skeptical of Institutions - Skeptical of large institutions and authority figures
3. Individualistic - Self-reliant and independent
4. Problem Solvers - Innovative with their solutions
5. Catalysts for Change - Shake up and reform institutions

Armed with these cliff notes, it may fascinate you to review Carol's full report and data as the majority of these characteristics are validated. It'll also give you a fantastic lens to view this generation as you prepare your marketing for this audience. While a somewhat smaller cohort, still an extremely important one to bear in mind.

I am surprised that Gen X (1965-1979 i.e., ages 44 to 58), are currently two-thirds renters. It makes sense once you think that this generation has had historically high home prices, limited housing stock, and lately high-interest rates. Also, there has been a prolonging of single living as well as a postponement of parenthood.

A third of Gen X parents have adult children living in the household.

Opportunities for brands lie in:

• Helping this cohort stick to a budget
• Helping this cohort play catch-up on savings

Next, Biota Li Macdonald was in Austin last week attending Permissionless, DeFi's largest conference in the U.S. with over 7000 crypto enthusiasts. The three clear themes that emerged:

• Regulation - It seemed like every session brought up the lack of regulatory clarity or acknowledged the need for responsible regulation. Claire Ching of crypto exchange Gemini called out that there’s never been such application filing demand as there has been with the Spot Bitcoin ETF, with the growing list including legacy vanguards like BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, and Franklin Templeton (the latter who announced their filing in the middle of Permissionless). The long-awaited introduction of a Spot Bitcoin ETF could propel crypto into mainstream acceptance by improving investment accessibility for institutional players. Just as gold soared in mainstream popularity after the debut of the gold ETF, there's similar potential for Bitcoin which will pave the way for other digital assets.
• Tokenization - With tailwinds like FedNow causing instant payments to trend this summer, there’s even more momentum behind the representation of real-world assets on the blockchain, especially in the form of stablecoins which are another form of securitized treasuries. From Visa piloting the use of the USDC stablecoin to pay merchants via the Solana blockchain, to PayPal’s May Zabaneh speaking to the launch of their own stablecoin PYUSD and the opportunities for instant settlement, the case for product-market fit is growing.
• Security - Like what we’re currently seeing in financial services marketing, security was also a much-discussed theme, with many of these latest innovations having much broader applications to consumer privacy and the financial services space. With generative AI top of mind, “proof of personhood” on the blockchain has growing relevance. “Zero-knowledge proofs” will enable verification of all types, including citizenship, without a person needing to reveal any identifying information thus protecting data privacy. In addition, “account abstraction” has huge UX and security implications that allow consumers to benefit from interacting with the blockchain while mitigating some of the risks, such as enabling users to control their crypto wallets without the need for private keys. As MoonPay’s Keith A Grossman pointed out, “nobody cares how a toilet works,” and in the future, tech like the blockchain will live hidden on the backend but revolutionize the customer experience.

Though crypto is a year into its bear market, the industry continues to grow and develop. For those who attended Permissionless, the broader takeaway is still to be bullish on crypto in the long term.

We've been monitoring the Small Business space in-depth for some time via Omni's Business Dashboard and while we've known it's been heating up for over a year, Capital One just pushed the reading to "super hot". Andrew Davidson 's LinkedIn post captures the details better than I could have worded it.

As ever - Anuj