The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Future of Work

Influencing Factors (Social, Technological, Ethical)

Society, and the world we have come to know it, have undergone several dramatic changes over the past few hundred years. These changes, or revolutions that represent major turning points in the way we live and work, are typically brought on by the emergent new technologies that represent new efficiencies in a process. Most researchers would say we are now in the fourth industrial revolution or 4IR for short. Like the revolutions before this one, it is a time of social, technological, and ethical change that has a sweeping impact on the way we work and function as a society (Yorks et al., 2020). While advancements drove the previous revolutions in agriculture, steam, and mechanization, the 4IR is driven primarily by cognitive technologies such as artificial intelligence or AI (Yorks et al., 2020).?

Technological capacity and AI are fueling advancements in numerous areas such as crypto-currencies, augmented reality, bio-computing, engineering, and edge computing capabilities. Even stranger concepts such as smart fabrics and organic computing are currently being conceived in labs worldwide. Many of these have ideas have moved from the realm of science fiction to science experiments.

The advancements from 4IR will profoundly impact the way we function, interact with one another, and work over the next several decades. By 2027, we can expect every process in place across 60% of all professions to be AI-enabled (Miller, 2019). By some numbers, this will result in the disappearance of 70% of the current S&P companies (Miller, 2019).

This is because most of the work we do is mundane and repeatable. It's performed by doing a series of well-understood and documented steps, one after another, in a never-ending sequence. As with the advancements of the previous revolutions, AI and robotics will allow companies to maximize the value of digital and physical tasks through automation (Miller, 2019). This means most back-office, administrative, and manufacturing functions no longer need human interaction (Miller, 2019). When was the last time you saw all the staffed checkout lanes open at the grocery store? Why do we have to checkout or even shop at all?

Consider the concept of Cognitive Engagement, which according to Miller (2019), is when AI directly interacts with humans to accomplish a task. Most of us recognize the eCommerce recommendation engines with their "you may also like" prompts at the checkout, but we've only begun to scratch the surface of what is possible. Cognitive engagement agents are available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, to take on the menial work required to serve and empower customers (Miller, 2019).

Companies should begin to understand these advancements and incorporate them into their processes. It's common for companies to look at the costs of new technology without paying attention to their ability to generate new revenue streams or even new business models (Bryan Hancock et al., 2020). The pace and nature of change make point-in-time predictions impossible (Bryan Hancock et al., 2020). However, the outcome of these new models and processes will help stave the social, political, and business challenges that come with massive unemployment and growing income inequality (Bryan Hancock et al., 2020).

COVID19 Pandemic Influence

The world after COVID19 is a very different place. Before the pandemic, the most significant disrupters of work stemmed from new technology and evolving trade linkages (Lund et al., 2020). COVID took the world by surprise when, for the first time, physical proximity became a critical factor in the way we work (Lund et al., 2020). The virus has broken longstanding technological and cultural barriers, forever changing, for many people, the way we think of work and where that work takes place (Lund et al., 2020).

As a result, the world was forced to embrace new, hybrid models of work which are likely to persist well into the future (Lund et al., 2020). Not everyone will benefit from these new ways of work, though. We now know that certain professions are better suited for remote work than others. The highly educated and highly compensated workforce tends to have tremendous success when working remotely (Lund et al., 2020).

Research shows that more than 20% of the workforce could effectively work from home three to five days out of the week with little to no negative impact on productivity (Lund et al., 2020). This would profoundly affect transportation, travel, and consumer spending, especially in urban economies (Lund et al., 2020). The impact to state and local taxes, as well as revenues for the restaurants, bars, hotels, and other services that cater to office workers, will see significant declines as three to four times fewer office workers make their daily commute (Lund et al., 2020).

General consumption patterns are changing for the first time as well. Gasoline and auto sales are down as workers settle into their home offices, and the commercial real estate market is experiencing contractions like never seen before (Lund et al., 2020).

The lasting shock and fear from COVID have left the world in a state of PTSD that may take decades to overcome. While some professions will return to some semblance of normalcy, many will be changed forever. Jobs that require closer physical proximity will see the most significant long-term impact (Lund et al., 2020). Those in the service industry, especially those less skilled roles, can expect to see multiple cycles of disruption as they attempt to combat the waves resulting from new variants of the virus (Lund et al., 2020). Likewise, warehousing, transportation, and manufacturing jobs may see significant disruption from eCommerce and automation (Lund et al., 2020). These changes will create a ripple effect as businesses adapt and business models change (Lund et al., 2020).

Communities everywhere are reeling as unharnessed workers flee urban centers. Significant public and private investment will be needed to support this migration considering, even in the most advanced economies, 20% of rural households still lack internet access (Lund et al., 2020).

Robots and AI in the Workplace

As the 4IR and pandemic become more pervasive, businesses will likely turn to varying levels of automation, up to and including robotics, to weather the changes from these external forces. Grocery stores were investing in self-checkouts long before the pandemic hit, and we can expect to find ourselves working in closer proximity to machines in the days to come. However, as we interact with machines more and more, we must consider what social and ethical implications these interactions will have (de Graaf, M. M. A, 2016). It's annoying when the Kroger self-checkout yells at you to place your item in the bagging area, but a life-size robot yelling at you is an entirely different level of disturbing. These may be machines, but their interaction algorithms were designed with human-to-human interaction rules in mind (de Graaf, M. M. A, 2016). As robots and machines become more like us, our perception of these interactions will have a more significant emotional influence on how we interact with the world around us (de Graaf, M. M. A, 2016).

As machines become increasingly human-like, we will interact with them on deeper social levels resulting in new legal, social, and ethical considerations (de Graaf, M. M. A, 2016). Consider a world where a person bonds with their robot socially. Should another person harm that robot, it may cause real emotional pain to the person who holds that bond. In a world such as this, the ethics applied to robots should be developed and used from that perspective (de Graaf, M. M. A, 2016).

While research shows there is little fear, at least in the short term, of robots and automation having a significant and detrimental impact on jobs and the workplace (Brougham, 2018), society should prepare itself for a future where humans and robots work and interact in ever more natural and social ways (de Graaf, M. M. A, 2016). Incorporating these advancements into our work and daily lives is the best way to benefit from 4IR, and if history tells us anything, we likely won't have a choice anyway. However, it's essential to understand that as automation, AI, and robots become more prolific in the workplace, the average worker will increasingly become obsolete in the day to day operations of businesses (21 jobs of the future.2017), and society will need to find new ways to account for that new life model.

Modernizing the Way We work

What role do we humans play in a world operated by automation, AI, and robots? What balance can governments provide for excess employees in a world that can function 24/7, with a greater productivity rate (Miller, 2019)? By 2030 more than a third of workers in developed countries will need to upgrade their skill sets or move into new roles (Bryan Hancock et al., 2020). Much of these workers fall into the middle class. Since middle-class wages account for the most significant percentage of overhead, most businesses will see increased profits. At the same time, society bears the cost of mass unemployment (Brougham, 2018).?

The proposed solutions include universal basic income, a guaranteed federal job, and a reduced workweek. While these make sense on the surface, a lot more than advancements in technology would need to take place for it to be successful.?

Let us consider universal basic income. Our society is based on a production/consumption model where something of value is produced, and those responsible are compensated when consumed. This model is turned upside down when individual compensation is decoupled from the act of production. Using advancements in technology as justification for universal basic income will only lead to higher unemployment and widen the income gap (Bryan Hancock et al., 2020).?

I believe the best option is to go to a reduced workweek. This will allow society to maintain its production/consumption model while buying time to find and introduce new and better solutions. While this appears to simply kick the can down the road, it offers the ability to control the convergence of these drastically different models. Furthermore, we have no proof that these advancements will result in the widespread displacement of workers. Job creation was the outcome of previous revolutions, and if 4IR follows suit, it may create more jobs than it destroys (Brougham, 2018), while universal basic income may act as a countermeasure, stifling such growth.?

Boundaryless Careers

Research shows that roughly 33% of the global workforce is unhappy at work (Miller, 2019). It also indicates when an individual has a say in designing their job, employers have smoother transitions and superb skill matching (Bryan Hancock et al., 2020). Businesses that embrace the boundaryless career concept may see increases in productivity and morale. Broughton (2018) defines a boundaryless career as the opposite of a traditional or "organizational career" that plays out through a single employment lifecycle. This would allow employers greater access to talent that is otherwise locked up in another organization while at the same time allowing employees greater say in what they do and when they do it. The current employment model is based on scarcity, where boundaryless careers stem from an abundance model.

I have experienced this myself over the years, at one point working for several different companies. It’s not much different from a consulting or freelance role. This provided me the freedom to pick and choose the projects I worked on while allowing the companies I worked with the freedom to call on me when they needed me the most. The most challenging aspects of this are finding these opportunities and obtaining benefits. If we can effectively solve the issue of healthcare and retirement savings, I see boundaryless careers gaining strong adoption over the next five to ten years.

References

21 jobs of the future: A guide to getting and staying employed for the next 10 years.?(2017). Cognizant.?https://www.cognizant.com/us/en/whitepapers/documents/21-jobs-of-the-future-a-guide-to-getting-and-staying-employed-over-the-next-10-years-codex3049.pdf

Brougham, D. (2018). Smart technology, artificial intelligence, robotics, and algorithms (STARA).?Journal of Management & Organization,?24(2), 239-257. https://10.1017/jmo.2016.55

Bryan Hancock, Scott Rutherford, & Kate Lazaroff-Puck. (2020, Jan 30,). Getting practical about the future of work.?The McKinsey Quarterly

de Graaf, M. M. A. (2016). An ethical evaluation of Human–Robot relationships.?International Journal of Social Robotics,?8(4), 589-598. https://10.1007/s12369-016-0368-5

Lund, S., Madgavkar, A., Manyika, J., Smit, S., Ellingrund, K., & Robinson, O. (2021).?The future of work after COVID-19.?().McKinsey Global Institute.?https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-after-covid-19

Lund, S., Madgavkar, A., Manyika, J., & Smit, S. (2020).?What's next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries. New York: McKinsey & Company, Inc. Retrieved from Business Premium Collection

Miller, T. (2019).?The new world of human resources and employment?(First edition. ed.). Business Expert Press.

Yorks, L., Rotatori, D., Sung, S., & Justice, S. (2020). Workplace reflection in the age of AI: Materiality, technology, and machines.?Advances in Developing Human Resources,?22(3), 308-319. https://10.1177/1523422320927299