Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

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In Dubai, sandstorms are commonplace. However, they have never been as intense as the ones unleashed, a few days back, by the confrontation of visions from participants to the 28th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference, better known as COP 28. In 30 years, this is the first time that a COP is organized in a petrostate, and it was precisely the future of petrol along with gas and coal the most controversial topic at the negotiations.

The combustion of fossil fuels to produce electricity and propel transport is responsible for over 75% of CO2 emissions that cause climate change. However, COP agreements have never considered goals or agendas to phase them out.

In Dubai, the 196 parties to the Paris Agreement of climate change reviewed progress on its implementation. However, the conclusions were not encouraging. Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and this year will set a new record according to Global Cabon Project. While most of the countries have committed to net zero their emissions by 2050, their short-term goals are not in line with the emissions reduction required to stabilize the increase of temperature to 1.5°C by the end of the century, as established in the Paris Agreement. The latest assessment from the United Nations Environment Program concludes that the sum of the pledges from all countries put forward so far projects a 2.9°C increase in temperature, considered catastrophic.

The difference between the level of CO2 emissions reduction needed to reach 1.5°C and the apocalyptic 2.9°C currently projected is explained by the planned fossil fuel production for the next 3 decades. The 20 largest country producers of petrol, gas and coal plan to produce over twice the amount needed to reduce emissions at the level that would set the world in the 1.5°C pathway. This is why reaching and agreement on fossil fuels in Dubai was so important. But the diplomatic challenge was daunting. For decades, countries have disagreed significantly on when and by how much to reduce fossil fuels or if it is even necessary to do so.

At COP 28, over 80 countries including the United States, the European Union and some of the most vulnerable countries to climate change supported a voluntary target to phase out unabated fossil fuels on a given date. South Arabia, Iraq, Russia and other petrostates opposed to such a target because it would contravene the spirit of the Paris Agreement where each country is free to choose the best way to reduce its emissions. In other words, to comply with their emission reduction targets, countries can increase their use of clean energy or apply technologies to capture and sequester CO2 (CCS).

The International Energy Agency claims that the development of CCS technology will not be deployed with the speed required to meet the Paris Agreement targets. Hence, it recommends halting the exploration and development of new petrol, gas and coal fields; along with tripling the installed capacity of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency around the world by 2030.

While the final text of COP28′s Global Stocktaking did not set a target for the phase-out of fossil fuels as it was demanded by the most vulnerable countries to climate change, for the first time in the history of climate negotiations it set a target for transitioning away from fossil fuels. It also included a goal to triple the installed capacity of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.

COP28 demonstrated that even petrostates are open to a parading change for the benefit of global good. Mexico is a petrol producer and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change at the same time. Maybe this time we are ready for a change of paradigm.

Article originally published at Reforma news: https://www.reforma.com/combustibles-fosiles-2023-12-17/op262293?pc=102

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