Fossil Fuel Phaseout: Will COP29 be the Turning Point in the Energy Transition Goal?

The countdown to the most awaited annual climate conference, COP29 in Baku, has begun, and the world's eyes are stuck on what is set to be a pivotal moment in the battle against climate change. A year after intense debates and landmark decisions of COP28 in Dubai, where countries agreed upon pursuing a fossil fuel phaseout' for the first time, COP29 anticipates to be another significant milestone for global clean energy transition.

According to Earth.Org, last year, fossil fuels accounted for around 82% of global energy consumption, with OPEC countries producing approximately 40% of the world’s oil. As per the report from the International Energy Agency, in 2022, fossil fuel-related emissions accounted for over 423 Mt of CO2. Given the world's aim to meet the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, reducing fossil fuel dependence is a critical step forward.

One of the key themes of the event? Clean energy transition! COP29 is expected to find ways to accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, a topic that now transcends environmentalism and speaks to the very heart of global economic, social, and geopolitical structures.

The scientific part of the strategy is a no-brainer, however it is also deeply political at that, which makes it all the more challenging as well. The fact that it took 26 UN climate meetings with 198 countries before fossil fuel was explicitly mentioned in the final agreement of a COP summit shows how deeply political is the nature of the issue.?

Vulnerable and developing nations are calling for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels, with some wealthy countries in the EU and the US supporting the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels. Major business coalitions also endorse this approach. However, countries like Russia, China, and India oppose such a move. Saudi Arabia remains firmly against even a phase-down of fossil fuels, further intensifying the debate.

?

Aspects of COP28: A Quick Recap

[1]?COP28 marked a historic turning point with the 'Dubai Declaration,' the first collective call for a fossil fuel phaseout. Nations agreed that the continued reliance on oil, coal, and gas would make the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal unattainable. They set forth urgent actions in three key areas: phasing out fossil fuels, scaling up renewables, and financing the transition.

Although non-binding, the COP28 phaseout agreement sent a clear message—the world is on the brink of a renewable energy era. For example, the UAE committed to triple its renewable energy capacity by 2030. But, a major sticking point was the financing mechanisms for the transition, where developed countries faced criticism for failing to meet their $100 billion annual commitment. India called for a tenfold increase in this fund to support developing nations' energy transition needs. COP28’s discussions laid the groundwork for further action at COP29.

?

Fossil Fuels Phaseout vs Phasedown

The problem is that neither "phase-out" nor "phase-down" are clearly defined, making them subject to interpretation. This ambiguity allows different groups to shape the terms to fit their agendas, which is why the debate around them remains so contentious. In general, "phase-out" is seen as a complete reduction of fossil fuel use by 2050, while "phase-down" is a vaguer term, suggesting a decrease but without clear deadlines or targets, making the issue slippery and difficult to pin down.

?

International Cooperation and Just Transition

[2]?Talking about the just transition initiatives, the governments are expected to present plans at COP29 that ensure the transition is equitable and doesn't leave workers in the fossil fuel industry behind.

For instance, Germany has already initiated the step into transition, with offering vocational education and training (C-VET) courses for transitioning coal workers. The minimal retraining will offer an opportunity to transition these workers into the renewable energy sector. COP29 is likely to see more nations committing to similar initiatives, ensuring that communities dependent on fossil fuels aren't left in the cold.

The COP summit will focus on international cooperation, urging nations to provide financial and technical support to developing countries for an equitable energy transition. Public-private partnerships will play a key role in financing and scaling renewable energy projects. In line with the upcoming summit, recently, Azerbaijan launched the Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF), a public-private partnership aimed at investing in climate action and de-risking investments, with special facilities for concessional and grant-based support for natural disaster recovery.

Phasing Out Fossil Fuels - Is the Major COP Goal Neglected?

Fossil fuel phaseout is also seen as a global challenge that requires international cooperation. At COP29, wealthier nations are expected to announce larger financial and technology transfer commitments to help developing countries move away from fossil fuels without sacrificing economic growth.

However, looking at the current scenario, there are no major signs of progress towards this approach, as negotiations in Bonn, regarding the discussions at the COP, were slowed a bit down by the Like-Minded Developing Countries group. The group includes China, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

Even Azerbaijan, the summit's host for this year, is a bit disinterested in the implementation of the COP28's major goal of fossil fuel phaseout. Notably, the state, being one of the major users of fossil fuels, did not include any mentions of phasing out fossil fuels in the recent COP29 Presidency's agenda, which acts as a setback for the COP process.

Enhanced Renewable Energy Targets - Boosting Wind, Solar, and Hydropower

Countries are expected to outline ambitious goals for expanding their renewable energy capacities, focusing on solar, wind, and hydropower. The world is already witnessing a sharp increase in renewable energy investments, and COP29 is likely to amplify this trend further.

India, which has emerged as the fifth global leader in solar energy, is expected to announce a significant increase in its solar energy targets, aiming for 500 GW of renewable energy installed capacity by 2030.

According to the Mercom India (2024), the average cost of large scale solar projects witnessed a fall of 26% YoY in Quarter 2. This portrays that India’s solar sector is soaring, providing a blueprint for other developing nations to follow.

According to a report by Clean Energy Wire (2024), Germany, on the other hand, aims to double down its onshore wind capacity to 115 GW by 2030, and offshore wind capacity is expected to reach a minimum of 70 GW by 2045. This comes as part of the country's broader effort to move away from coal by 2038, a target that could be brought forward in light of COP29 commitments.

Transitioning to renewable energy requires massive financial resources. At COP29, discussions will be held on how to mobilize the trillions of dollars necessary to finance the global energy transition. The use of green bonds, carbon pricing mechanisms, and climate finance funds are expected to be the key points of discussion.

Countries at the summit are also anticipated to explore issuing more green bonds to finance renewable energy projects. These bonds, which are designed to raise funds specifically for climate and environmental projects, have already seen massive growth, and COP29 will likely accelerate a discussion on their adoption across both developed and developing nations.

?

Technology Development and Transfer

Technological innovation and transfer for developing and underdeveloped countries will be critical to achieving the ambitious renewable energy targets set at COP29. The conference is likely to highlight the latest advancements in energy storage, grid management, and hydrogen power, which are essential for stabilizing renewable energy systems.

?

The Final Call: All Fingers Crossed

COP29 will likely be remembered as the moment when the global community solidified its commitment to a sustainable energy future. With renewables on the rise, the energy landscape is poised for a historic transformation. The decisions made in Baku will have far-reaching consequences, influencing not only climate policy but also economic development, social equity, and international relations for decades to come.

As COP29 approaches, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The energy transition is no longer a distant goal; it is an urgent necessity. With clear commitments to ensuring a just transition, COP29 has the potential to set the course for a brighter, more sustainable future. Let’s hope the world’s leaders rise to the occasion.

?

?

?[1]It's repeating. Let us proofread our writeups before submitting.

?[2]Again the same line. Why?