FORESIGHTS-FEB,24
The recent Union Budget aligns well with key fiscal objectives. The fiscal deficit at 5.8% for FY 2024 (compared to the budgeted 5.9%), and a targeted reduction to 5.1% in the following year, demonstrates prudent fiscal management. The increase in capital expenditure by over 11% following last year's substantial allocation of 10 lakh crores underscores the government's commitment to enhancing infrastructure assets.
The restraint shown by not introducing substantial populist measures in an election year reflects a dedication to fiscal prudence. Consequently, it is anticipated that the government's borrowing will decrease by approximately Rs.1.3 lakh crores in FY25 compared to FY24.
Nonetheless, it is crucial to address a significant potential risk: the persistence of high-interest rates despite moderating inflation. Such a scenario could impede private capital expenditure, which is essential for sustaining GDP growth. Despite reduction in core inflation to 3.6% and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation to 0.27% in January, and anticipations of policy rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Federal Reserve by mid-next year, questions remain regarding the actual decrease in borrowing costs for retail and corporate entities. Factors contributing to a tight liquidity scenario may not be alleviated solely by future RBI measures.
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UNION BUDGET: CONTINUES FOCUS ON FISCAL DISCIPLINE FOR SIGHTS
The finance minister has rightly focused on fiscal discipline in the interim budget, even while continuing the focus on capex-led growth. The fiscal deficit for FY25 has been budgeted at 5.1% of GDP, lower than market expectations. Even the fiscal deficit for FY24 is estimated to be lower at 5.8% of GDP (as against budgeted 5.9%).
The thrust on capex has continued, with the central government’s capex budgeted to grow by 11% to Rs 11.1 lakh crore in FY25. The capex to GDP ratio is budgeted to rise to 3.4% in FY25 from 3.2% in FY24, compared to less than 2% in the years before the pandemic. The focus on transport infrastructure has continued, with around 47% of the total capex going into roads and railways in FY25. Moreover, in a bid to propel capex by the state governments, the outlay of ` 1.3 lakh crore as a long-term interest-free loan for capital expenditure to states has been continued.
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Key Focus Areas Infrastructure Development and Investment
Technology and Innovation
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The predominant share of EV sales in India is currently held by two-wheelers (2W) and three-wheelers (3W), collectively accounting for 90-95% of the total electric vehicles (EVs) sold in India during CY23. In contrast, the share of electric passenger vehicles (PVs) stands at 5%, while commercial vehicles (CVs) occupy a minor fraction, falling below unity within the EV domain.
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Despite the challenges confronting the EV industry – from insufficient EV charging infrastructure and concerns about battery capacity leading to range anxiety to elevated vehicle prices in comparison to internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts, and policy revisions such as those witnessed in FAME II – the growth trajectory of EVs persists across various segments, The revision in the FAME II policy during 2023 posed a setback for the growth of 2W and 3W. However, the overall expansion of the EV market remained robust throughout CY2023.
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During CY22 (CY refers to the period from January 01 to December 31), out of global fibre production of 116 million tonnes, polyester fibre accounted for a lion’s share of 54%, with the production of 63 million tonnes. In the global polyester yarn industry, China, the largest player, is 6-8 times in size than the second largest player i.e., India. Leveraging its access to cheaper purified terephthalic acid (PTA), China not only dominates the export market but also fulfils the demand of its large export-oriented textile and apparel industry. India can manufacture 4.5-5 million tonnes of polyester yarn annually and consumes over 80% of it domestically.
The zero-COVID policy implemented by China during FY23 significantly impacted its domestic consumption of textile products. Despite the Chinese economy not recovering at the anticipated pace after the opening-up of its economy, Chinese manufacturers did not curtail production in line with the slowdown in domestic demand. Instead, they started dumping polyester yarn at cheaper rates in the global markets. Consequently, there was a significant increase in Chinese imports to India during FY23 which persisted into H1FY24 as well. This not only adversely impacted the pricing power of Indian manufacturers in the domestic market but also led to a contraction in their export volumes.
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Geographical expansion underway to further financial inclusion
SFBs have been expanding their franchise continuously with a number of branches growing at a CAGR of 29% since March 2018. The branches are well spread out all over India with South India having the highest number of branches at 28% followed by the western region contributing 20%.
Diversification of advances visible but microfinance continues to dominate Advances of SFBs grew at a CAGR of 32% during the period from FY20 to FY23 as against a CAGR of 11% for the banking sector. SFBs increased its market share in advances of the overall banking industry over the past few years although the same is relatively marginal.
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Over the last few years, loans to industry lost market share from 40.6% in FY19 to 36.1% in H1FY24 and yet continued to constitute the largest segment, followed by personal loans at 31.8%, services at 14.6% and agriculture at 1.9%. Growth in industrial advances was largely contributed by the Government NBFCs (18.3% y-o-y).
According to RBI’s Financial Stability Report December 2023, the Large NBFCs (NBFC-UL) logged higher credit growth (y-o-y) of 21.9% and a better GNPA ratio of 3.4% as of September 2023 than the overall NBFC sector.
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Turnaround professional in the manufacturing and engineering domains with applications in ML and AI
9 个月Labored reports will not mitigate the imminent risks of the cascading effects of a potential fiscal contagion. Very precarious position!