“The foreign virus”: Racism as policy

Racism as policy: The ending of populism and the American hegemony.

"We're all living in Amerika, Amerika ist wunderbar...” Rammstein, Reise Reise.

We are in the midst of a global crisis that is still playing out. What is inevitable though is that change is here already.

I will describe how race, especially towards the Chinese, has been used as a political weapon for the first time since the 1930’s. Whilst I do not expect a similar denouement given the circumstances are entirely different, this clearly is a critical time for populism and the long term ability of Democracy to do what is best for its people.

Given the USA is currently proving an extreme example of political behaviour I will use it as the driver. However political regimes of a similar nature can be found as diversely in Brazil, Hungary, Philippines, India and the UK.

In the short and medium term, I argue that Chinese visitor numbers, covering students and tourists may be impacted. And using UK as an example, I show that ￡1.8 billion (equivalent to building 4 hospitals) is in jeopardy.

Despite this peril, I believe the outcome of this will be the ending of such populist regimes. Given America’s position as standard bearer for populism, I also see the USA as the biggest casualty in the Global cultural wars, and its position for the next 50 years will likely be quite different to the previous 50.

It is important for the European, South East Asian and South American democracies to take note of the lessons from America should they wish to maintain their cultural standing in the coming years.

Trumps zero sum playbook: Racism as government policy

In my last article I described the way COVID is being handled in the West, and that the estimated mortality could be 100 timeworse than that in China. I argued that this was due to Western norms rather than the efforts of the medical services (which are generally outstanding). This behaviour particularly around the public’s laisse fair approach to social distancing and isolation, may lead to the long-term reassessment of the sanctity of universal freedoms. This has put many Western leaders on the defense, and no more so than Trump.

Whilst initially described as a hoax, COVID mutated from “the foreign virus” quickly into “the Chinese virus”.

In parallel, from his initial dismissive stance, Trump is now positioning himself as a war president. This polemic is not accidental, Trump is playing himself as the Churchill vs the Nazis. Except this time the ruthless enemy are the Chinese via their virus proxies.

This is a very clever and disturbing play:

• Should the USA (through the tireless effort of their medics) succeed in reducing the impact of the virus, then Trump can declare victory.
• However, should the USA follow the path of Italy, then China can be scapegoated as the enemy and that each loss of American life is a hostile act.
• i.e. whatever the outcome Trump believes he can win.

This is not an accidental policy: a lot of effort both at the top level (from Trump himself) and grass roots (his Alt-right and racist base, online) is put into trying to turn the narrative that China has instigated both a cover up and conspiracy. This is reinforced by any implying anyone who questioning the veracity of these assumptions is a traitor to a foreign power.

It should be chilling to consider that it is the first time since the 1930’s that race has been used as a direct tool of government policy of a leading western nation.

Is belligerence to the Chinese really that racist?

(i) So, is Trump really being racist?

Firstly, Trump has form for racist rhetoric and so this was no clumsy accident. From describing Mexicans as rapists, telling people of colour to go home, and describing African countries as “shit-holes” there is a long list.

But let there be no doubt that using the phrase “Chinese virus” is racist. As well as being an adjective of the country “China”, Chinese is also a race. For example, on the UK census form there are 18 options for race, one of which is “Chinese”. In comparison, if Ebola was described as the “black virus” this would be undoubtedly racist. I doubt that this distinction was lost on Trump.

(ii) Chinese: a soft target for racism?

Unfortunately, Trump did not invent this racist rhetoric, he simply politicised what was developing at a grass-root level that started extensively in Europe. 

Typically, expat Chinese keep a low profile in their host country and thus tend to avoid being the target of systematic racism (which of course does exist). COVID changed that, spontaneously triggering both verbal and physical abuse that has been well reported:

“Get that mask off” / “You’re a virus” / “You’re dirty”

Sadly, many apologists felt that it was “understandable” as people were scared, coupled with the prevailing Asian stereotype of not fighting back, implying they didn’t mind it much.

Trump fed off, and by politicising racism, reinforced such rhetoric, giving his Alt-right base and others a target. To be clear, none of this is acceptable. It is racism. period. And unfortunately, there will likely be consequences from the World’s second superpower.

West vs China: An imperial Context

Before discussing what these consequences could be, negative attitudes to China have some important historical context that is largely unknown in the West, but shapes China’s world view in profound terms today.

Whilst by the 19th Century, the late dynastic period China was entering a period of relative decline and instability, this was ruthlessly exploited by European invaders. From Britain’s perspective the “Opium Wars” were the most infamous as it forced China to open its market to accept imports of opium and also famously led to the destruction and looting of the Emperor’s summer palace. The European involvement in the Boxer rebellion at the turn of the 20th century again further humbled China.

Some historians think that had WW1 not upset the political order of Europe, these invasions would have continued, and China would likely have been partitioned in a similar was as South America or Africa.

But it was not just the loss of prestige and treasure that remains an indelible mark on Chinese national psyche, it was more the resulting instability and famine that followed it. By some estimates it caused more deaths than the whole of WW2 combined (50 million). It is therefore not an exaggeration that Chinese fear instability and chaos more than anything else, and rather seek calmness and order.

This is why state control and the loss of certain freedoms, which allows for the avoidance of such instability is not seen as negative in China – indeed it is something that saves them from a troubled past.

The West’s recent relations with China have been very cordial, harmonious (and possibly greed driven), so what could have gone wrong? Some say it is down the “Thucydides Trap” a theory that through history the rising power always fights the incumbent power. I don’t accept this as it feels like a self-fulfilling prophecy, rather I feel it is down to the will of one man – Trump.

You reap what you sow: The economic costs of the cultural wars

(i) Context

I will discuss some of the political costs of the cultural wars in the next paper, but here will focus only on the direct consequences of Trump’s racist foreign policy.

In discussing this phenomenon with my Chinese friends and colleagues, a common response was “so what – we Chinese are resilient and above all pragmatic – such things are quickly forgotten once things get to normal”.

Whilst I do not wish to go contrary to firsthand anecdotes, I am not so sure given the historical context in the previous section. If this was purely racism at a grass roots level that quickly goes away, then perhaps. But as in much of what he does, Trump changed everything.

Not since the 18th and 19th century imperialism has systematic racism been directed to a leading power (and to a fifth of World’s population). Probably the last example was the late renaissance orientalism, but even then, this was directed towards great powers already in decline rather than ascent.

(ii) The starting gun of a new cold war?

It has been said that USA and China are already in a cold war. I don’t think was the case until now as it was only in the context of economic rivalry. The last cold war wasn’t economic – it was ideological. This new American belligerence, together with its ineffective leadership in protecting its people (described in next paper) may be the casus belli needed to start one.

(iii) Choose your friends, choose your side

It is possible that China will double down its investment as a direct competition to American and lesser extent European interests.

China has considerable cash reserves and whilst its economy was damaged by COVID, in relative terms to rest of world it has gained an advantage in its recovery. This may lead to an extension to the belt and road flagship foreign policy.

But in the context of a new cold war this may require 3rd countries hungry for this investment to choose a side. You are either with us or against us. This may prove a real dilemma to the UK who may need to make a choice of which friends they keep post-Brexit.

(iv) Tourists and Students – the financial impact of “go home”

UK has approximately 100 thousand Chinese students. This is about 5% of the total higher education numbers, and a quarter of the lucrative foreign student numbers. Many UK universities are also suffering from severe financial constraints, and any loss of this well-paying cohort would be very damaging.

In 2018 France and Germany received a staggering 2.1 and 2.8 million tourists from China. In 2018 UK granted (according to VisitBritain) more than 1.5 million Chinese nationals visas, and student applications had climbed by 30,000 in the first quarter of 2019. The tourist industry has been decimated by COVID, and so the permanent loss of any additional visitors will slow any recovery.

But would they stay away?

I think in the short term many will, or many will make the choice not to come. I think the memory or fear of racial abuse, together with the chaotic exodus/escape in March 2020 will put many off. Remember that instability is an anathema to the Chinese.

For students, it is an expensive undertaking, so many will expect value for money. Top universities will survive, but many second tier won’t. For tourists the idea of a holiday is for pleasure and so I think the cultural and civilized veneer of Europe may have come off.

It is possible that PRC will promote the virtues, advantages as well as environmental benefits of being a tourist and studying locally. In any case, the World is a big place and there are many places outside of Europe and USA to go!

(v) The financial costs

I will focus on the UK tourism and student revenue as an illustration. According to VisitBritain, Chinese tourists spent in excess of ￡1 billion in 2019. In parallel according to the Higher Education Policy international students contributed ￡3.2 billion, so assuming China is a quarter of this total, ￡0.8 Billion.

Chinese visitors therefore contributed to the UK economy approximately ￡1.8 billion, a number that was projected to grow. This could build 4 hospitals. But what if it doesn’t? What if it falls?

The margins in tier-2 universities, tourism and hospitality sectors are typically very narrow. Western society must find a way to reverse the damage wrought by racism, and quickly, for these to survive.

Conclusions: What can be done?

This article is the bleakest of all that I will write on COVID, simply because the topic of racism is so vile. In many ways this is worse than the deaths through COVID, as a virus is a natural event, whereas racism is entirely man made. And given Trump’s position as the leader of the biggest economic power should give all of us pause for reflection.

Racism has no place during stressful times, no matter what level you are at.

My advice here is for those considering voting in the November elections to consider carefully who they vote for, and political oppositions not to be afraid to play the race card (given it is already on the table)

My advice to all others is to shun all racist content on social media – not to comment - as this just disseminates. However, do report it as such to the media provider.

Finally remember that not one of us is above reproach and when it comes to harbouring of prejudice towards people, be it on race, faith, sexual orientation or gender choices. We all must be mindful of this at all times and so avoid this most base form of human nature.

? Deryck Brailsford, March 2020

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Thank you for reading part 2 of my essay and enduring the bleak tone. In the next part I will discussing the impact of these cultural wars on both American and European geo-political standing, and discuss the grave choice countries have on the future of populism and potentially the survivability of democracy as a means to protect it people

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