Forecasts make markets, strategies make the money.

There are three kinds of traders in the world of risk markets – I call them Larry’s, Curly’s and Moe’s.

The Larry types (Larry Fine) do not know that there are three types; when they are told, it is an abstraction, because they cannot imagine anything beyond themselves, i.e., Larryness.

The Curly profiles (Curly Howard) know about the three types, and recognize it as it is a pecking order, but he finds ways of living with it cheerfully … for they are the imaginative, creative ones.

The Moe characters (Moe Howard) not only know about theses archetypes, but they exploit and perpetuate them.

Among these three types of traders, the na?ve, pleasant new agers, the net generation, the millennium babies are the Larry’s, they are normal man on Main Street At Large. They are mainly ineffectual, well-meaning do-gooders destined always to be victims, often without once guessing their status, liquidity providers.

Like sheep, they do not know of or do they want to hear the unpleasant legends like the bear market of ’72 to ‘74 or the panic of ’87, ’97 or ’01 and they would rather forget about the World Financial Crisis, in fact they can’t say it, they have to abbreviate it! The mini crash of 2011, was just a bad bit of data and they trust the strange two-legged beings who feed them.

The second type, is the artists, the unsung scientific geniuses, the statisticians and the earnest disciples of stranger cults, they are Curly Joes. They are the engaging, original, accident prone traders. They are intuitively aware of the Moe forces against them and try to fight back. 

However, they can never defeat the Moe’s, without becoming a Moe themselves, which is impossible for the true Curly.

The Moe’s, are the fanatics, the ranters, the ravers, the financial gurus, George Soros, the market wizards, Monroe Trouts or Marty Schwartz, the debunkers, Nick Hanauer they are the Renaissance leaders.

They hate each other, but only because they want to control ALL the Larry’s and Curly’s for a profit. They don’t actually enjoy their dominance, it’s simply part of their nature. Nor are they any less foolish for the fact that they make the decisions.

They suffer a chronic paranoia that is unknown to their less demanding underlings. 

Larry and Curly lose money big time in speculative bubbles started by rival Moe’s; the Larry’s do so willingly, the Curly’s do so with great regret, they see it coming but can’t help themselves.

Concepts like “overbought / oversold” or “impulse wave” or “market sentiment” were invented by Moe’s to keep Larry’s in line; the Larry’s, in turn, being far more numerous, exert social pressure on the Curly minority to obey … mainly so the Larry’s won’t feel like suckers.

The Moes invent myths, like that of, Elliott theory ,Optimal f theory, high frequency trading, random walk theory and of course the efficient frontier. All of which throws the more rebellious Curly’s off their trail and keep them focused on theory and the Larry's focused on media forecast and both never giving an inch of thought to what strategy fits the context of the market today.

Where is Trader Vic Sperandeo (a true Moe) when you need him, he can spot a good poker hand when he sees one.

I am a Moe, though not a particularly powerful or well-known one. That is why I know these things and I dare to tell you for some of you will think it’s just a funny joke or that I just poking fun. 

A few will know it is the truth, but will fight far harder against my Moe enemies than you will against me, a generous Moe who educates and informs -on a fee basis of course, Hell, I’m not commie – giving to those based on their neediness.

A Thinking Man’s Trader and my fellow Moe allies will know what I’m REALLY saying, and chuckle in appreciation.

Be a Moe become a Thinking Man’s Trader.

“Trade the market you've got, not the market you want.”

Jack F. Cahn, CMT,  Since 1989, Thinking Man’s Trader

https://www.thinkingmanstrader.com