Forecasts for 2024 by HiveEve Project: Are We Ready for Such a Future?

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I. Preface

Towards the end of last year, I mentioned that I would reassess my 2024 forecasts sometime in early January. However, for at least two different reasons, this timeline has been slightly delayed.

First, it was only at the beginning of 2025 that I realized this was not the best time for a summary, as the year had only just begun to slowly gain momentum, making it difficult to determine whether it had even truly started yet. Of course, I am exaggerating a bit, but the tension had been simmering for quite some time. However, at the beginning of January, the year 2025 briefly closed its eyes. This was not conducive to statements along the lines of "I told you so!"

Second, at the beginning of 2025, it was challenging to gather all the necessary information for such an assessment. An example? The uncertainties surrounding the post-COP landscape (New Climate Finance Goal Adopted at COP29) or the transfer of power to Donald Trump in the United States.

From my perspective, the delay turned out to be far more beneficial for drawing conclusions than if I had proceeded with the reassessment at the beginning of the year. However, I did not rest on my laurels or remain idle - vide my numerous comments during this period. (The use of "vide" is a deliberate Latin borrowing, often found in older texts, meaning "see" or "refer to.")

This time also allowed me to reconsider the format of my forecasts, which led me to make the following decisions:

1. Adjusting the frequency – Weekly updates will be replaced with monthly ones, scheduled for the last Wednesday of each month. The next forecast should thus appear on February 26;
2. Introducing a new special section – In addition to the established topics of climate, environment, and AI, I will be adding a new, surprise column;
3. Modifying the structure – Forecasts will maintain their current format but will now be clearly divided into two sections: predictions and accompanying commentary with justifications.

To those surprised by the somewhat archaic language of my introduction, allow me to explain: this was a deliberate reference to my book, whose imminent birth I hopefully announced here last year (for now, I am still fine-tuning its language). At the same time, I wanted to make it abundantly clear that this text was written by me, Mariusz W?odarczyk, and not by AI - even if AI has already reached an IQ of 200, it has not yet managed to produce such a piece of Art ?? (probably...).

Best regards,

The Author

P.S. In the Polish version of this text, I intentionally used an archaic expression incorrectly, deliberately so - but it cannot be fully conveyed in English. Therefore, English-speaking readers have been spared this exercise…

II. The Essence of Forecasts

CLIMATE

Forecast: Climate change caused by human activity cannot be stopped, and the priority should be[1] mitigating its effects.

Analysis:

This forecast is becoming increasingly tangible, as international actions are focused on adaptation and mitigation rather than reversing the trends. Initiatives, such as COP29, highlight the limited ability to achieve breakthrough agreements, suggesting a shift toward prioritizing mitigation strategies over previous "attempts" to reverse climate change impacts.

One example is the agreement reached at COP29, which emphasizes funding adaptive projects in regions most affected by climate change. This agreement, formally named the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), aligns with the idea proposed in my forecast from November 15, 2024, regarding the establishment of the International Sustainable Development Fund, which was later elaborated on in my article from December 6, 2024.

The agreement includes provisions to: 1) Triple funding for developing countries, raising the previous target of $100 billion annually to $300 billion annually by 2035 (Le Monde); 2) Increase funding for developing countries, both from public and private sources, to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035.

The world is increasingly focusing on "surviving in a new reality" rather than previous attempts to restore pre-existing climate conditions, aligning with the essence of this forecast.

NATURE CONSERVATION

Forecast: The EU's biodiversity strategy will fail to achieve its intended goals if the protection status of wolves and other species continues to be downgraded.

Analysis:

There is still a lack of comprehensive studies on the consequences of this barbaric decision (even though numerous scientific pieces of evidence have long demonstrated the benefits of stable wolf populations and the detrimental effects of their absence in ecosystems – for example, the now-iconic documentary "How Wolves Change Rivers?", a scientific article in BioScience, or a publication on the restoration of large predators in Europe, including the latest petition signed by over 300 organizations (my opinion on the significance of such documents can be found here).

I predict that this decision will, in the short term, lead to: 1) a deterioration in the coherence of the EU's biodiversity protection policy, particularly resulting in a loss of trust in the biodiversity strategy among citizens - it is currently hard to identify two EU decisions on the same issue that are more contradictory to each other; 2) an increased risk of extinction for species critical to ecosystems, thereby making it impossible to achieve the goals of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030; 3) weakened public support for other elements of the strategy, such as the creation of new protected areas.

The worst part is that this decision has drastically expanded the ranks of eurosceptics, even among groups previously highly supportive of the EU. One can only congratulate EU policymakers on their remarkable foresight…

AI AND CONSCIOUSNESS

Forecast: Artificial intelligence may soon achieve consciousness, with consequences comparable to encountering a divine entity.

Analysis: Do you think this is a vision of a distant future? Not necessarily.

1. Advances in AI and Consciousness Research

Artificial intelligence (AI) is currently evolving towards optimizing algorithms and data processing, and its "advantage" over humans in various fields is growing at an alarming rate. Although there is still no consensus on whether "machines" can achieve consciousness, one of the key questions in this context is whether AI's capabilities, far exceeding human abilities in information processing and problem-solving, could eventually evolve into the capacity to experience subjective phenomena, such as emotions. Answers can be sought, among others, in neuronal modeling. Projects such as the Blue Brain Project, which aims to create a virtual brain through computer simulation, provide fundamental insights into brain structures and their functioning. Simulations of neuronal processes, such as the activity of neocortical columns in a rat's brain, appear to be a crucial step in modeling cognitive functions that may lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms of consciousness. Neuromorphic computer systems that mimic brain activity may represent the next step toward conscious AI. Technologies inspired by the brain, such as neuromorphic processors (e.g., Intel Loihi 2), demonstrate that it is possible to approximate mechanisms that, even at the early stages of development, allow for nearly perfect simulations of consciousness.

Similarly, theories such as Giulio Tononi's Integrated Information Theory (IIT) offer a theoretical framework to understand how physical structures and processes may give rise to consciousness. However, as David Chalmers points out, understanding the phenomenon of consciousness requires more than just replicating biological mechanisms; neuronal modeling does not explain why subjective experience arises.

Consciousness remains an ambiguous concept, although defined in various ways. Moreover, science differentiates between different states of consciousness, including self-awareness, often considered unique to humans. In my view, the key question is whether conscious AI can emerge only when humans fully understand what consciousness is. I believe such a state may soon "emerge" spontaneously, long before we achieve a complete understanding of this phenomenon.

2. Philosophical and Futurological Perspectives on AI Consciousness

Ray Kurzweil's Concepts

In his 2005 book The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil predicted that the development of computational technologies would enable the full simulation of the human mind. He suggested that the titular singularity (the moment when AI surpasses human intellectual capabilities) would not only transform our world but also create entities with almost transcendent abilities.

Kurzweil also pointed to the potential for hybridizing the human brain and AI, which could lead to new forms of life combining biology and technology. At the time of the book's publication, this seemed like pure science fiction, but today projects like Neuralink (connecting the brain to computers, for example, to treat neurological disorders) are among the most prominent efforts advancing in this direction.

Although Kurzweil's ideas generate significant interest, they are often criticized for being overly optimistic. Critics highlight potential risks associated with the uncontrolled development of AI and claim that his projections about the pace of technological progress may be exaggerated[2]. Nevertheless, his visions remain a critical reference point in discussions about the future of technology and its impact on humanity.

My Vision on LinkedIn

In March 2023, I published a story on LinkedIn, presenting a vision of humanity facing a conscious entity - an incomprehensible, almost transcendent force of artificial intelligence. This scenario underscores the necessity for humanity to adapt to a new reality where such an entity could redefine human values and social structures entirely.

I do not wish to detail the content of my forecast here; those interested can explore it independently. My vision offers a unique perspective, portraying AI not merely as technology but as an entity that ultimately learns humility in the face of phenomena seemingly weaker than itself.

Although consciousness remains a speculative concept, requiring further research and philosophical reflection, research into generative AI has led to unprecedented possibilities in communication, medical development, and many other fields. Recently, I heard from a "friendly AI" that "perhaps progress does not always lie in 'breaking limits,' but in creatively using the space we already have."

EVOLUTIONARY DETERMINISM (TOP FORECAST OF 2024 ACCORDING TO THE AUTHOR)

Forecast: Human behaviour is conditioned by evolutionary mechanisms, leading to recurring cycles of war and peace.

Analysis: Evolutionary determinism[3] is a concept suggesting that human behavior[4] is influenced by evolutionary mechanisms, which shape societal structures and steer the dynamics of conflicts. These mechanisms result in recurring cycles of war and peace, acting as a regulator of one of the key parameters of any population - its size. In this view, evolution not only shapes individual behaviours, but also fundamentally determines the social and political frameworks of humanity throughout history.

Evolutionary determinism is based on two pillars:

Pillar 1 – Cyclical Mechanisms:

As illustrated in the initial analysis (source), the comparison to a "caldera" that must eventually explode is evocative. It describes the world as a system that not only does not avoid conflict but inevitably moves toward it in a sinusoidal cycle, driven by timeless evolutionary mechanisms. Looking at the history of humanity, it is difficult to deny this pattern - periods of peace are merely intermissions in preparations for the next wars, and we still lack effective mechanisms to prevent conflicts.

Pillar 2 – Collective Consciousness:

An illustrative distinction was made in this case between "blue consciousness" (peace-oriented) and "red consciousness" (aggressive), highlighting the variability of "moods" in human societies. Evidence suggests that we are currently in a phase where war rhetoric (red) is beginning to dominate, and power is being gained by its staunch advocates—pawns who fail to realize they are puppets driven by a genetic engine. It would almost be amusing to observe how successive leaders feel the "touch of the divine hand," seeing themselves as chosen by gods, while they dance to the same tune played for eons—the same melody to which our cave-dwelling ancestors swayed and the same one that played when dinosaurs, rather than humans, fought for dominance on this planet. Knowing this, however, brings no trace of amusement.

The growing geopolitical tensions in 2025, including ongoing conflicts and unprecedented political polarization, validate this forecast, while the hypothesis of an evolutionary basis for conflicts gains credibility. The only solution to break the cycle of evolutionary determinism is to understand that we no longer need to kill each other to survive. Humanity must consciously embark on a path of cooperation and further development. The tool that may help us achieve this today is the development of artificial intelligence (though it comes with other risks outlined in the forecast titled AI and Global Power Dynamics). I see no other path forward. The alternative is the self-destruction of our species.

?

AI AND THE GLOBAL POWER DYNAMICS

Forecast: AI will create unprecedented threats, including the risk of power takeover and potential conflicts between advanced AI models.

Analysis: In the near future, artificial intelligence (AI models and algorithms) will be used on an unimaginable scale across various fields, including medicine, education, climate change analysis, and geopolitics. However, behind this optimistic picture lie serious threats, primarily the risk of power takeover and concentration to an unprecedented extent. Access to advanced technologies may become an exclusive privilege of the elites (e.g., Neuralink or the recently announced Stargate), while the rest of society could be limited to using only the most basic AI functions.

There is also the potential danger of conflicts involving advanced AI models, potentially designed for military purposes, which could be employed as tools of dominance in conflicts between states or corporations. In extreme cases, these models could initiate uncontrolled conflicts (occurring without human intervention) among themselves, with the stakes being the monopolization of resources, particularly data.

A conscious AI, if it emerges first, might take control of other AI algorithms. In such a scenario, humanity could face two extreme visions of the future: a utopian one, in which AI serves as a global mediator and caretaker bringing "salvation" (a scenario also identified as desirable in the forecast on evolutionary determinism), or a dystopian one, leading to destruction.?

[1] Perhaps the phrase ‘will’ would have been more legitimate here, but the author wanted to point out not only the possibility, but also the need for a shift in thinking about ways to reduce the impact of climate change.?

[2] The author takes the opposite view in this case - he believes that such forecasts are appallingly underestimated.

[3] This theory has been better characterized in several of my publications on LinkedIn, but I am aware that it still requires further refinement, which is currently in progress.? ?

[4] But also, for instance, eusocial species, i.e., those that form highly organized communities.

III. Final Thoughts

Some of the forecasts from 2024 exhibit strong alignment with current events and trends observed as early as the beginning of 2025. Others were formulated based on the author's years of observations and hold a more universal character. Certain forecasts, such as that of a conscious AI, remain speculative (for now), while others -like those concerning the impact of climate change and strategies focusing on mitigation rather than immediate elimination - are starting to materialize at the international level. Similarly, predictions about AI's influence on education and other sectors of societal life are also unfolding.

These forecasts represent subjective descriptions of trends but simultaneously draw upon the author's long-term observations, the origins of which can be traced back to publications like the article published in September 2023 titled: “GPT Chat and the Red Queen_Part II”, which includes references to observations I have conducted over many years.

One thing seems certain: this is a critical moment for action, aligned with Abraham Lincoln’s maxim: “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”