Forecasting Extreme Weather Events: Importance of Early Warning Systems

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In an era marked by increasing climate change-related risks, the world is witnessing a significant increase in natural disasters, underscoring the urgent necessity for comprehensive disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies, given their far-reaching impact on communities and economies. As the intensity and frequency of these disasters are anticipated to continue to rise in the coming years due to changing weather patterns, the socioeconomic costs of weather and climate-related extreme events are also poised to escalate. Recent reports show that natural disasters, many attributed to climate change, caused global economic losses of $313 billion and resulted in 31,000 reported fatalities in 2022 alone, straining public resources and infrastructure, and posing substantial challenges to disaster response and recovery efforts.

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Early warning systems serve as the first line of defense against these disasters, helping communities build resilience and become more adaptive to weather extremes. These systems are reliant on data from diverse sources, including weather satellites, ground-based weather and marine stations, and remote sensors, enabling continuous monitoring of weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed, and precipitation levels.

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Leveraging advanced computer models and algorithms, real-time data is analyzed and can also be compared with historical records to identify unusual or extreme conditions that may lead to severe weather events. Multi-hazard early warning systems can address a range of potential threats, from floods and hurricanes to droughts and heatwaves. By providing timely and accurate alerts about impending disasters, these systems empower decision-makers, communities and individuals to take proactive measures, including timely evacuations when necessary, helping secure critical infrastructure and minimize the human and economic toll of these events.

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As part of its mandate to assist its member countries to safeguard lives, livelihoods, infrastructure, and ensure the overall well-being of their communities, the World Meteorological Organization , the WMO, is spearheading global efforts to expand and improve early warning systems worldwide. Demonstrating its commitment to enhancing global resilience, WMO is closely working with its member states to strengthen their early warning capabilities, enhance the accuracy and timeliness of warnings and expand the range of hazards covered by these systems.

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The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, which was adopted at the Third UN World Conference in Sendai, Japan, on 18 March 2015, sets the expansion of multi -hazard early warning systems as a distinct target, Target G, to be achieved by 2030.? Under Target G, the international community commits to strengthening and extending these systems, ensuring their accessibility, effectiveness, and reach to the most vulnerable communities worldwide.

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At WMO, we believe that strategic investments in early warning systems and the advancement of multi-hazard early warning mechanisms are paramount to ensure everyone on Earth is protected from hazardous weather events. Furthermore, the 2019 Global Commission on Adaptation flagship report, ‘Adapt Now’, found that early warning systems provide more than a tenfold return on investment. However, we recognize that the journey to universal resilience is a collective endeavor that demands concerted efforts from all corners of the globe through increased international cooperation, capacity building, and resource allocation.

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Although WMO and partners have made significant progress?in enhancing global awareness and mobilizing international cooperation?around early warning systems through the ‘Early Warnings for All’ initiative, significant gaps remain, as only half of the countries globally have reported being covered by multi-hazard early warning systems. Furthermore, regions differ in their progress and efforts in establishing multi-hazard early warning systems, especially within the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and in Africa. As these nations often disproportionately bear the brunt of climate-related hazards, the need for special assistance and increased investments throughout the multi-hazard early warning systems value cycle cannot be overstated.

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By prioritizing investment in robust early warning systems to ensure their universal coverage, societies can better navigate the increasingly complex landscape of climate-related risks and bolster their resilience against future disasters. Through collaboration and commitment, together we can shape a future where the most vulnerable communities are not only safeguarded from the devastating impact of these disasters, but also empowered to meet the evolving climate-change related weather challenges.

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