Forecast of DV display & backlit display in 2024

Introduction:

At present, the basic situation of the LED industry is overcapacity, but the LED segment is undergoing a revolution. For example, various types of mechanical rotating screens are springing up like mushrooms after a rain.

The partial breakthroughs in the LED industry seem to be pushing the LED industry into a new cycle.

Next, I will share with you five predictions including direct view led and back-lit.

The first: Micro LED technology has not yet been applied on a large scale, small-scale mass production has begun.

This judgment was not made because Apple was revealed to have canceled the Micro LED watch project. Even without this incident, the large-scale production of Micro LED on small screens will have to wait until the end of 2025. However, whether it is Apple Watch or Air, their pulling effect on Micro LED is relatively small. What can really drive Micro LED is large-screen TVs, cars, and the potential mobile phone market in the future. But due to changes in Apple's plans, there is a lot of uncertainty in the mobile phone market. Nonetheless, Micro LED remains the best candidate for the ultimate display technology. In terms of automotive applications, the enthusiasm for introducing Micro LED into car lights and vehicle head-up displays exceeds that of other vehicle display manufacturers. From the perspective of the high-end large-screen TV market, price is still a factor hindering the popularity of Micro LED, but if smaller chip area and mass transfer technology can be used to reduce the overall average unit pixel cost to a level close to that of Mini LED chips, At the same time, improving contrast and solving color consistency issues, Micro LED is expected to make great progress. The current aggressive goal of some manufacturers is to achieve this goal in the third quarter or the first half of next year.

Second: The rental market for LED large screens is still a good market

The rental market for LED large screens has shown considerable growth in the past two years and has reached its peak level. From a global perspective, its scale accounts for 15% to 18%. This shows that in 2024, the rental market will still be a market with huge potential. However, it is worth noting that most of the previously accumulated orders have been released, which means that growth this year may slow down. Some markets need to be wary of possible downturns caused by cyclical fluctuations. But in the high-end rental market, we think it will still remain dynamic.

Third: Due to the technical competition between large-screen P1.2 and P1.5, the price war will not weaken.

The competition in skills is constantly escalating, and may even extend to the direction of P1.8 and P0.9, with virtual pixel technology superimposed at the same time. Under such fierce product and price competition, when it comes to price wars, from the perspective of industry strategy and top-level, price wars under technological innovation are actually desirable, and may also be inevitable. For example, the explosion of China's photovoltaic industry stems from technological innovation and the decline in the cost of photovoltaic electricity, which is close to the level of thermal power. Similarly, the explosion of new energy vehicles is largely due to the fact that the battery price of lithium batteries has dropped by nearly 90% in the past decade. Technological innovation has allowed reasonable profit levels to be maintained, while prices have jumped beyond a critical value, which is likely to lead to huge market demand.

Fourth: Due to the large increase in new large screens this year, the all-in-one TV and sports markets have grown significantly

The potential of the sports market is obvious, with nearly 50 major sports events held around the world this year. At the same time, observing the LED film market, 10 companies have certified DCI and launched 20 products. Domestically, more than 20 cinemas have begun to adopt LED displays. More importantly, traditional projection suppliers have also launched LED displays to compete for this market. The current market penetration rate is only 1%, but the output value has reached approximately 1.5 billion. Although this may not be very attractive to many companies, when the penetration rate reaches 5%, the output value will exceed 5 billion, accounting for 12% of the LED display output value. The LED large screen rental market mentioned earlier accounted for 15-18% of the total output value at its peak. In addition to movie theaters, movie screens have also begun to emerge in science and technology museums and home theaters in major cities. However, the penetration of the cinema market is a gradual process that requires patience. On the other hand, the terminal price of LED all-in-one machines is expected to drop by 20-30% this year. Although it has not yet reached the mass market sweet spot, it will further penetrate the market. However, the problem facing the all-in-one market at this stage is that almost all companies are actively deploying and displaying products, which may lead to intensified price competition. Although price cuts may have contributed, it is uncertain whether the market will be willing to accept the reduced prices. In a highly competitive market, the competitiveness of the combination of software and hardware is crucial, so most companies still adopt a cautious attitude.

Fifth: Miniled TV products in higher divisions will bloom this year

In the past few years, it was difficult to sell truly high-division Miniled TVs, so the market share was occupied by low-division TVs. However, with the continuous improvement of technology, increasing performance and falling costs, today's users are increasingly pursuing higher picture quality. It is expected that the high-segment market will blossom this year. Taking the TV market as an example, shipments in the 500-segment and below will account for 70% in 2023, and will gradually shift to the 500-1,000 segment this year. In addition, the concept of trade-in for old products has begun to appear in the home appliance market this year, and is encouraged by some policies. Various TV manufacturers are also actively preparing to vigorously promote Mini LED TVs. Therefore, this year's development is expected to be significantly better than last year's.

The above is my personal opinion, I hope it can inspire more discussion and thinking. I believe that when discussing issues, we should learn from each other and make progress together. I have always liked a quote from Charlie Munger, which means that the macro environment is what we have to adapt to and endure, but the micro level is what we can change and influence. Therefore, I hope that those proactive companies can play a role within their control and achieve better results.