The forces shaping global oil markets
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Committed to shaping a secure and sustainable energy future for all.
Welcome to The Energy Mix. In today's edition: The key trends affecting global oil markets this decade; how to increase clean energy investment in Africa; a high-level event in London on financing and investment ahead of COP29; meeting Austrian leaders in Vienna; our new initiative on energy & AI; and more...?
Slowing demand growth and surging supply are set to drive up oil market surplus?
Growth in the world’s demand for oil is expected to slow in the coming years as energy transitions advance. At the same time, global oil production is set to ramp up – easing market strains and pushing spare capacity towards levels unseen outside of the Covid crisis, according to our new oil market outlook .?
Oil 2024, the latest edition of our annual medium-term market report, examines the far-reaching implications of these dynamics for oil supply security, refining, trade and investment. It finds that based on today’s policies and market trends, strong demand from fast-growing economies in Asia, as well as from the aviation and petrochemical sectors, is set to drive oil use higher in the coming years. But those gains will increasingly be offset by factors such as rising electric car sales, fuel efficiency improvements in conventional vehicles, declining use of oil for electricity generation in the Middle East, and structural economic shifts.??
At the same time, a surge in global oil production capacity is expected to outstrip demand growth between now and 2030. The potential result is an unusually high level of spare capacity that could have significant consequences for oil markets – including for producer economies in OPEC and beyond, as well as for the US shale industry.?
Our latest monthly Oil Market Report, released alongside the annual report, finds that a slowdown in demand growth and rising production are affecting markets in the near term as well. Global oil demand is now expected to increase by less than 1 million barrels per day this year, while non-OPEC countries are leading production higher.?
Find out more in our news article on Oil 2024. You can also read the full medium-term report and watch the launch event . Highlights from our Oil Market Report for June, which looks at near-term trends, are available here .?
A surge in energy investment in Africa is vital for sustainable economic growth?
Meeting growing energy demand in Africa requires a surge of spending on clean energy projects, as well as swift action to tackle financial barriers so funding can reach the projects that need it, according to our new report.?
Clean Energy Investment for Development in Africa – which outlines target areas for energy investment on the continent and explores the best financing options – supports a flagship initiative launched by Italy’s G7 Presidency at the recent Leaders’ Summit in Apulia. Called Energy for Growth in Africa , the initiative aims to help foster a strong pipeline of bankable clean energy projects on the continent and to improve access to financing so the projects can come to fruition. The IEA will be the initiative’s key knowledge partner, working alongside the United Nations Development Programme, which will focus on implementation.?
The urgent need for expanding access to energy in Africa is highlighted in this year's edition of Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report . It shows that the number of people without access to electricity worldwide increased in 2022 for the first time in over a decade, while the number of people globally without access to clean cooking remained broadly unchanged. Learn more in the full report , which evaluates progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 of achieving access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030.??
High-Level Dialogue in London to focus on clean energy financing ahead of COP29?
Boosting financing and investment for clean energy projects around the world is the focus of a High-Level Energy Transition Dialogue that took place in London yesterday as part of preparations for the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, later this year.?
The High-Level Dialogues – co-chaired by our Executive Director Fatih Birol and COP29 President-Designate Mukhtar Babayev, and held in close partnership with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – aimed to build further international consensus around pathways to drive energy sector emissions to net zero and limit global warming to 1.5 °C. The dialogue is the second in this series. Hosted by the City of London Corporation at Mansion House during London Climate Action Week, it focused on how to scale up clean energy investment, especially in emerging and developing economies.??
The discussion brought together leaders from across government, the financial sector and civil society, including include African Union Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy Amani Abou-Zeid; Germany’s State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action Jennifer Morgan; and Ireland’s Minister for Transport, Climate, Environment and Communications Eamon Ryan – as well as Selwin Hart, Special Advisor to the UN Secretary-General on Climate Action and Just Transition; Damilola Ogunbiyi, CEO and Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Sustainable Energy for All; and COP26 President Alok Sharma. Participants from the global financial sector will include Barclays Global Head of Sustainability Daniel Hanna, Prudential Chair Shriti Vadera and JPMorgan Chase Global Head of Sustainability Heather Zichal.?
Read more in the news article .?
Executive Director discusses key energy and climate issues with President of Austria??
Our Executive Director recently travelled to Vienna where he had a bilateral meeting with President of Austria Alexander Van der Bellen at the Hofburg Presidential Palace. They discussed energy and climate issues at the global and European level, as well as opportunities to deepen collaboration between Austria and the IEA.?
In Vienna, Dr Birol delivered the keynote opening speech at the annual event hosted by the Austrian Chamber of Commerce & Industry. In his remarks to a high-profile audience including government ministers and business leaders, he highlighted recent clean energy progress in Europe and around the world – while also stressing that given today's energy realities, Europe needs to develop new energy, industrial and trade policies in order to remain competitive with other major economies.?
For more on Europe's energy situation and its implications, read this recent opinion article by Dr Birol and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.?
A global conference on energy and AI in December is part of our new initiative??
Artificial intelligence is emerging as one of today’s most important technologies – and its impact on the energy sector could be transformative. Innovation is taking place rapidly, and new use cases are emerging every day. The sector is already applying artificial intelligence to improve how energy is produced, consumed and distributed – making the operation of complex systems, such as the electricity sector, more secure, efficient and sustainable.??
At the same time, expanding AI and the digital economy requires huge data centres that run on electricity. Although their energy use today is small in the context of the global energy system, demand has increased rapidly in recent years and is expected to keep growing. Considering the implications of the AI revolution is therefore critical to understanding the future of energy.?
We've long been at the forefront of understanding the links between the energy sector and digitalisation , and as the only global agency tracking all fuels, technologies, sectors and geographies, the IEA is uniquely placed to analyse the connections between AI and energy.??
To explore the opportunities and challenges ahead, we are launching a major new initiative: Energy for AI, and AI for Energy. As part of this initiative, we will consult with governments, industry, researchers and civil society experts. A major milestone will be the Global Conference on Energy and AI, which we will hold in Paris on 5 December.?
Stay tuned for more information, which we'll share on our event page for the Global Conference .? ?
领英推荐
Meeting with partners in Thailand as our work in Southeast Asia expands? ?
Our Deputy Executive Director Mary Burce Warlick recently travelled to Bangkok, Thailand, for discussions with high-level stakeholders. During her visit, she met with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Pirapan Salirathavibhaga to discuss Thailand's energy priorities – which include ensuring energy affordability and security while advancing its clean energy transition – as well as ways in which Thailand and our Agency could expand collaboration.?
Ambassador Warlick also met with Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana to discuss how the IEA can further support the region's energy transitions.?
Building on many years of close partnership, the IEA is deepening its work with countries in Southeast Asia, where energy demand is growing strongly. In October, we are set to open our first Regional Cooperation Centre in Singapore , which will serve as a hub for wider engagement on enhancing energy security and accelerating clean energy transitions.?
Power utilities need digital talent – but not all are searching for it?
Digital technologies are set to play a key role in the transition to more secure and sustainable energy system – requiring workers with strong digital skills to implement and manage them. However, our new commentary finds that the extent of hiring for digital roles varies widely around the world.??
What's more, despite the high level of need, power utilities have been slower to post significant shares of digital jobs than other sectors, such as finance and insurance and public administration. In recent years, digital job postings approached 16% of total listings by finance and insurance companies, whereas the share for power utilities stagnated around 11%, with a decline below 9% between 2017 and 2021.?
Read the commentary, which is based on first-of-its-kind analysis of global job vacancy data, to learn more. It also features key recommendations for power utilities looking to bridge the digital skills gap.???
ENERGY SNAPSHOT
A ramping up of world oil production capacity, led by the United States and other producers in the Americas, is expected to outstrip oil demand growth between now and 2030, inflating the world’s spare capacity cushion to levels that are unprecedented, barring the Covid-19 period. Learn more on the implications of this trend in our Oil 2024 report.?
WHAT WE'RE READING & LISTENING TO:??
COMING UP:?
Mid-July: Gas Market Report – Q3 2024 ?
Mid-July: Electricity Market Report – Mid-Year Update ?
Late July: Coal Market Report – Mid-Year Update ?
October: World Energy Outlook 2024?
November: Energy Technology Perspectives 2024
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5 个月I learned a long time ago that when a clock does not tell the correct time, it needs fixed or replaced. The IEA has been wrong on oil for at least 20 years. They consistently predict too low...much too low! While no one is perfect nor has a crystal ball to gaze into, it seems that they have swallowed the kool-aid of "no more oil".
Executive Director and Researcher at IEI Brasil - International Energy Initiative
5 个月It would be importat to include in the analysis the oil demanded by export-based product production in China. This would help to understand the share of oil demand that is embedded to meet the world's product purchase made in China (by Chinese and multinationals in China) compared to the oil demand embedded in products and services that is consumed in the Chinese domestic market. In summary, China is not demanding oil only for domestic purposes, but also as a giant world products exporter. As far as I could read in the report, this fact is not made explicit and, in my view, makes all the difference.
Senior Advisor to the Minister of Petroleum of Saudi Arabia
5 个月Those who are saying “ you are going against the wind, I think they are doing that trying by their unrealistic scenarios, including the IEA ones. They are mixing their wishful thinking with reality. Oil will continue to be a major source of energy mix for many decades to come. Stop the Climate lies!???
Geoscientist
5 个月Can Big Oil become Big Energy and stay on top? And for me the main question in the green agenda is what to do with coal?