A Foolproof Recession Predictor Just Started Flashing Red
Check this out:
My favorite & foolproof recession predictor just started flashing red.
(Quick background if you don't know me - I worked as an investment strategist and economic researcher for almost a decade before switching gears into my current line of work. I loved the work but felt an irresistible draw to work closer with people.)
Anyway... This indicator has a rare 100% success rate in predicting the last 7 recessions since 1970:
What it means:
There's a very good chance there will be a recession in the next 12-18 months.
(A recession means overall economic activity declines rather than grows, which is the normal trajectory)
I have no idea how long it will last or by how much economic activity will decline. (The last recession in 2008-2009 was very bad. This next one may not be as bad.)
Here are a few things that typically accompany recessions:
? People lose their jobs and unemployment insurance claims spike.
? Stock markets begin declining before the recession and generally enter a bear market that lasts a good chunk of time.
? If it's during election time, unhappy voters generally vote against the incumbent
? The official government agency who tracks this stuff (the NBER) doesn't declare a recession is happening (or happened) until at least 8-12 months AFTER it begins
? A bunch of other technical things that I won't bore you with.
The good news is, you've got time to review your portfolio and make INTELLIGENT decisions before the crowd starts getting frenzied.
So if you've got money in the market or you're thinking about investing more... if you're thinking about taking out a 2nd mortgage... if you've got a lot of debt... or you otherwise stand to lose or gain if the markets swing wildly...
...Consider this your warning!
(And as always, if you want help making wise investment choices, reach out anytime. We can hop on a call and look into how you can tidy up your portfolio. Even tho I'm not doing this work for a big investment firm anymore, I still want to make sure my friends & colleagues are secure and not tricked into doing anything stupid.)
Best of luck,
Eric
Senior Salesforce Consultant at Blue Gator | 10+ Years in IT Infrastructure | Specializing in Nonprofits
6 年Where is the data that suggests that? I checked out the predictor and it goes to 2018, but maybe I don’t have it configured properly.