Food Shortage Ahead?

2024 has been deemed a year when the agility and innovative instincts of global supply chain leaders will be tested, and it is living up to the predictions. Disruptions from the El Nino phenomenon, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Panama Canal /Amazon River drought, to the Red Sea/Gaza war, the longer sea freight shipping time, to the farmers protests in Europe and India, the banditry and insecurity issues. Not forgetting the infrastructural challenges around food warehousing (dry/cold chain), which results in food wastages and the high cost of logistics, due to lots of unreceipted levies, export restrictions and increase biofuel commitments.

Food shortage is the drop in supply of nutritious food to match the population demand, basis a geographical area. This usually happens when not enough food is grown or imported to meet a population’s energy and nutrient requirements. This leads to food insecurity, a result of poverty, unemployment and low wages.

The World Bank in 2024 included food and nutrition security among the 8 global challenges to address, mobilising $45B in resources to tackle this in 2022, going beyond the 2022 projections of $30B. These challenges were identified, basis data, deduced via lots of studies through machine learning, from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), resulting in projected inflation, soaring grocery prices, record traffic at food banks, difficult weather conditions and increasing interest rates, cost of farm inputs, cost of labour and equipment for farmers globally.

Social impacts of food shortage include famine, rising food prices and civil unrest, while environmental effects include soil erosion and water pollution, which all impact human development, health and education levels.

In 2022, I had a bad dream of impending famine, which I shared with a few professionals in Supply Chain and Consulting, and this prompted my personal interest to pivot into Agrologistics. It’s been a great experience, working with MDAs, startups and NGOs on Agriculture to make sure that things got better.

In Nigeria, it’s been a rough ride since Q3 2023 till date (Q1 2024) with food inflation hovering around 30% and likely to overshoot that percentile. Lives have been lost on farmlands as clashes between, bandits, herdsmen and farmers happen, whole villages burnt down and farmlands overran by cattle. It makes it very tough to harvest anything and store, with even farm produce that was stored prior to now, plundered during the clashes. Demand has not matched supply and a growing population is having less food to go around.

Farmland is appreciating in price in the ‘peaceful’ parts of the country and there is more demand for planting, however equipment availability has been next to zero, despite lots of investments on paper. Government interventions, including the Anchor Borrower Scheme has not yielded much with the proliferation of ‘portfolio farmers’ who access the funds and divert it to other things. To solve this, autonomy must be granted the local governments to provide agricultural services that are needed by their populace: tractors, ploughs, combine harvesters, siloes, cold chain infrastructure and farm produce markets.

Manufacturing and local assembling of mechanized agricultural equipment must be encouraged by state-owned and private assembling lines, so that technological input will improve. Optimisation of data for soil, humidity, crop science, animal production and aquaculture must be improved by setting up laboratories and research initiatives at local levels to impact immediate communities.

Transport infrastructure is one of the biggest challenges which makes or mars farmer ROI, reduce wastages and improve the quality of what is sold at the markets. Lots of roads are being rehabilitated, which should reduce travel time from the farms and aggregation points to the markets and final consumers. Rail infrastructure for the movement of animal husbandry and farm produce must be prioritized. This will open up farmlands, create logistics opportunities and better the lot of rural dwellers too.

We have all it takes to escape food inflation, food insecurity and hunger, which leads to unrest, if there is a will across all levels of government. Improvement of cross-border trade and movement of farm produce, which will actualize the AfCFTA goals is a must.

An Africa that feeds herself and the world is a must, as food insecurity is a No No.