Food Insecurity, Hunger Hotspots & El Ni?o
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in collaboration with the World Food Programme (WFP), have advised that deepening economic shocks, conflict, weather extremes, and organized violence are spiralling low and middle-income countries into acute food crisis. They have just ?published “Hunger Hotspots, early warnings on acute food insecurity, June 2023 to November 2023 outlook"
The report shines a light on the scale and severity of hunger in 22 countries, with 18 specific Hotspots, and highlights the need to act now to save lives. It also recommends solutions that can help people to adapt to climate change.
Food Insecurity Drivers
[1] The FAO and WFP looked at the key drivers of food insecurity that are most likely to develop over the coming months. Regrettably, the drivers always stay the same. Armed conflict and organized violence continue to ravish 14 countries, including the Sahel, Yemen, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Haiti. Siege tactics and using hunger as a weapon has pushed acute food insecurity to catastrophic levels in various hunger spots. Increased use of explosive weapons and targeting of water infrastructure and sources further exacerbate water and food shortages.
The slowdown in advanced economies increases the cost of credit for developing and emerging economies, leading to high commodity prices. Macroeconomic distress hinders essential imports, and high energy and labour costs impact food prices.
The Sudan conflict crisis began in April of this year and looks to have enormous consequences for nearby countries if it continues. Sudan was home to over a million refugees, and with increased food insecurity and unrest, many will seek to return to their own country. Additionally, Sudanese nationals flee their homeland into South Sudan, Egypt, Chad, Ethiopia, Libya, Eritrea and the Central African Republic. This movement of refugees into countries struggling with internally displaced people (IDPs) and new refugee arrivals could further increase tension and stress food insecurities within those countries.?
?Natural Hazard: El Ni?o
El Ni?o (Spanish for ‘the Christ Child’) was called so because the first noted occurrence in Peru was around Christmas. It is the warm phase of a large phenomenon called El Ni?o -Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This climate pattern describes the warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. When coastal water becomes warmer, the atmospheric pressure above sea level decreases.
La Ni?a is the pattern that describes the cooling of the oceans’ surface water.
[2] According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the world should prepare for a 60% chance of transition from ENSO-neutral (neither El Ni?o nor La Ni?a) to El Ni?o during May-July 2023. From June-August, that increases to 70% and 80% from July to September. These percentages are based on the WMO long-range forecast and expert assessment.
El Ni?o usually occurs every two to seven years and last nine to twelve months, and the effects ranging from increased heat, drought and rainfall, vary globally.
These events are associated with:
· Increased rainfall in South America, Central Asia, Southern USA and the Horn of Africa.?
· Severe drought in Australia, Southern Asia and Indonesia
It is important to note that no two El Ni?o events are the same. Effects vary and are dependent somewhat on the time of year.?
Catastrophic Hotspots
The five phases of food insecurity are highlighted on the following Integrated Food Security Phase Classification scale (IPC). It provides a differentiation overview between levels of acute food insecurity.
The following catastrophic hotspots are countries that are IPC/CH Phase 4 and 5; this category relates to countries with famine or those at risk of starvation.
Countries of the Highest Concern for June to November 2023:?
In Afghanistan,?15.3 million people face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3), and 2.8 million people are in an emergency (IPC Phase 4). A drop in humanitarian funding, a ban on female staff and below-average precipitation could worsen food insecurity.
Nigeria:?Over 24.8 million people are projected to be food insecure between June and August 2023. With 1.1 million in (IPC Phase 4), constraints on humanitarian access remain very high.
South Sudan:?A mixture of dry spells, flooding, high food prices and conflict?will drive food insecurity.?Forty-three thousand people will be in catastrophe/famine through July 2023. 63% of the populace is projected to face crisis, including 2.9 million people in emergency (IPC Phase 4)
Somalia:?Acute food insecurity projected to deteriorate in June. Forty thousand three hundred fifty people will face famine due to drought, persistent conflict and high food and water costs. (IPC Phase 5) 1.85 million face emergency (IPC Phase 4), with close to 6.6 million people facing crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3)
Yemen:??6.1 million people are estimated to be in emergency (IPC Phase 4) due to the recommencement of fighting.
Due to increased levels of projected famine concerns, Haiti, the Sudan and Sahel region (Burkina Faso and Mali)?are included in this category.
Haiti: Due to limited humanitarian access, 19,000 people in the capital’s neighbourhood face catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity. 4.9 million people are projected to face crisis or above, and 1.8 million face emergency (IPC Phase 4)
领英推荐
“Not only are more people in more places around the world going hungry, but the severity of the hunger they face is worse than ever,” Cindy McCain, WFP’s Executive Director.
Countries with Critical Deteriorating Conditions.
Other hotspots that need urgent attention to deter extreme hunger have populations of over 500,000 people that are estimated to be facing emergency levels (IPC Phase 4)
The Central African Republic:?Conflict-affected and IDPs, along with vulnerable households with limited access to food and rising prices, means that 807,000 people are facing emergency conditions (IPC Phase 4)
?The Democratic Republic of the Congo: Due to conflict and large-scale displacement in the north-eastern provinces, 2.8 million people are projected to face emergency (IPC Phase 4)
Ethiopia:?20.1 million people need food assistance. 7.4 million children and women need nutritional assistance. The high level of food insecurity is caused by subnational conflict, nonrecovery from past droughts and high food prices.
Kenya:?Deteriorating economy and localised conflict drive record levels of food insecurity. 1.2 million people are projected to be in emergency (IPC Phase 4).
Pakistan:?The worsening economy and political crisis could reduce the ability to afford food. Across 43 rural districts, it was found that 6% of the people are in emergency (IPC Phase 4)
Syrian Arab Republic:?The impact of the 2023 earthquake and economic problems mean that 5.9 million children and women will require nutritional assistance in 2023, an 18% increase in 2022.
?12.1 million people assessed were acutely food insecure up to October 2022.
Myanmar:?Extreme constraints to humanitarian assistance due to intense conflict. 15.2 million people in 2022 were expected to require food and livelihood assistance. 2,2 million children and women will need nutrition assistance in 2023.
In addition to the countries mentioned above, seven countries are within the parameters of IPC Phase 3. They are Gambia, Senegal, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Colombia, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of). These countries have lengthy crisis challenges with likely high levels of food insecurity. However, clear evidence could not be accessed to compare with current hunger hotspot trends.
The 2023 outlook implicitly shows the key factors behind the protracted suffering of millions of human beings. Women and children are at the forefront of nutritional deficiencies, requiring immediate assistance. The global economic slowdown will impact humanitarian funds, and internal conflict and displacement will exacerbate the challenges faced whilst attempting to deliver essential supplies.
Now the world must prepare for an El Ni?o phenomenon and hope its effects are not as detrimental as in 2016.
A study to evaluate the effectiveness of point-of-use water treatment in improving recovery rates of children with acute malnutrition was published in 2018. The results noted that recovery rates among children receiving treated water were 16.7 - 22.2% higher than in the control group without safe drinking water.
Read the full article here:
? Aquatabs 2023
References:?
[3] Doocy, S., Tappis, H., Villeminot, N., Suk, A., Kumar, D., Fazal, S., . . . Pietzsch, S. (2018). Point-of-use water treatment improves recovery rates among children with severe acute malnutrition in Pakistan: Results from a site-randomized trial.?Public Health Nutrition,?21(16), 3080-3090. doi:10.1017/S1368980018001647