Food, Fuel, and the Future: Biofuels in the Age of Electrification

In his influential article "The Nonsense of Biofuels", Nobel laureate and Max Planck Institute director Hartmut Michel critiqued the biofuels sector, shaping the views of renowned authors like Vaclav Smil and more recently Bill Gates in "How to Avoid a Climate Disaster." Michel’s key arguments against biofuels revolve around:

? The low energy conversion efficiency (MJ per hectare) of biofuels compared to solar panels.

? The massive land use required for biofuels, leads to direct competition with food production.

These points have fueled the ongoing debate of "food versus fuel" and have often linked biofuels, particularly ethanol, to tropical deforestation. These arguments disproportionately influence public policy debates in the Global North, especially in Europe and Japan. ??

We recently published a study/scientific paper that offers a technological perspective on the biofuels sector in Brazil, specifically focusing on sugarcane ethanol. Some of the key counter-arguments to Michel’s position are:

? Tropical Agricultural Productivity: Tropical crops like sugarcane, grown in Brazil, exhibit productivity far exceeding the estimates from temperate climates where Michel and Smil’s calculations are based. In addition, using crop residues for second-generation ethanol or biomethane further enhances efficiency.

? Beyond MJ Calculation: Sugarcane energy production cannot be evaluated solely by megajoules, sugarcane produces ethanol and sugar (energy and food). The carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen molecules in ethanol enable applications beyond light vehicles, such as biofuels for marine and aviation (SAF), polymers, and other hard-to-abate sectors. Moreover, sugar is a valuable feedstock for biotechnology, with the potential to produce chemicals, pharmaceuticals and, among many other things, products like high-protein food to decarbonize livestock. This complex integration of food, energy, and materials is known as IFEMS (Integrated Food, Energy, and Materials Systems).

? Negative Carbon Systems: Emerging technologies, such as BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage), biochar, and rock weathering, can help biofuel systems create negative carbon footprints. These systems could become highly efficient carbon sinks, supporting biofuel production, food security, and atmosphere decarbonization. With the right policies, biofuels could be diverted to food production during shortages or allocated to higher-value products during bumper crops. This ensures a resilient food-energy system.

? 2050 Outlook: By 2050, we expect an energy grid that is largely electrified and low-carbon. As such, marginal investments in solar may yield diminishing returns in terms of CO2 mitigation, while biofuels will still have significant decarbonization potential, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors like aviation, polymers and shipping.

? A New Metric – Decarbonization Density (DD): Instead of using MJ per hectare as the sole comparison metric, we propose "decarbonization density" (DD). This metric compares production systems based on their potential to decarbonize different sectors. Our study showed that future biorefineries could increase their DD from 20 tCO2/ha to 145 tCO2/ha, potentially reaching 290 tCO2/ha with agricultural advancements. In comparison, solar panels in Brazil are expected to achieve 42.5 tCO2/ha by 2050, even accounting for new solar technologies.

The objective is not to claim that biofuels are better than solar panels but to demonstrate that both are complementary in the long-term transition to a decarbonized energy system. Local solutions like biofuels can have a global impact, and they need to be carefully considered to foster an inclusive energy transition. Rather than letting biases dictate policy, we should remain open to analyzing diverse solutions as innovations continue to evolve, especially considering regional aspects.

Though Hartmut Michel, Smil, and Bill Gates are visionaries, no one can fully understand every decarbonization system and its specific contexts. Policymakers, who generally lack the depth of these thinkers, are even less equipped to dictate which technologies will drive the energy transition. Instead, in my view, policies should focus on emission reduction goals and allow the market and innovators to deploy the most effective pathways. To date, ethanol and electrification have emerged as leaders, not competitors, in this journey toward a sustainable future. ????

Fábio Teixeira Ferreira da Silva Mateus Schreiner Garcez Lopes Laura Asano Gerd Angelkorte Ana Brambilla , @Alexandre Szklo, @Roberto Schaeffer, Paulo Luiz de Andrade Coutinho

#EnergyTransition #Bioenergy #Sustainability #Innovation #Decarbonization

Our study in link bellow:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0961953424003404