ON THE FOLLY OF MAKING PREDICTIONS

The eminent physicist Niels Bohr is reported to have said (tongue firmly in cheek) that “Prediction is very difficult especially about the future.” It does not matter what avenue of human enterprise one considers, long term predictions often end up being wrong. But still there is a receptive audience for experts and their predictions. To wit, here are some interesting predictions that missed their mark ,shall we say?

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS

Everything that can be invented has already been invented

-        Charles H Duell. Director of U.S. Patent Office (1899)

Heavier than air flying machines are impossible

-        Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society (1895)

There is no likelihood that man can ever tap into the power of the atom

-        Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize Winner in Physics (1923)

There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.

-        Albert Einstein, Nobel Prize Winner in Physics (1932)

I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.

-        Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM (1943)

There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.

-        Ken Olson, Founder Chairman, Digital Equipment Corporation (1977)

A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.

-        New York Times (1936)

SOCIAL & GOVERNMENTAL PREDICTIONS

 Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.

? George Wald, Harvard Biologist (1970) during the launch of the Earth Day movement

Babe Ruth made a big mistake when he gave up pitching

-        Tris Speaker, Baseball Hall of Famer (1921)

Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?

-        Harry M. Warner, Warner Bros. Pictures (1927)

What you get from the Government plan will ALWAYS be more than you have paid in taxes and usually more than you can get for yourself by putting away the same amount of money each week in some other way.

-        Social Security Introduction Program Brochure (1936)

At the risk of unintentionally ruffling some feathers (in our polarized political environment) I would like to conclude this post with a more recent prediction.

"We will have so much winning if I get elected that you may get bored with the winning"

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