The fog of war: seeing the impact of the Israel-Hamas war clearly
Hey, this is Angelo Paura and welcome to this new edition of It’s Not True, our weekly newsletter about disinformation and false narratives.
This week we dedicate our newsletter to the Israel-Hamas war, in a pivotal moment, especially for Palestinian civilians: the Israeli ground operations in the Gaza Strip intensified with thousands of deaths and the propaganda especially from Iran, Russia and China is rampant.
In the first issue we dedicated to the war we focused on AI with a compelling history of deepfake in warfare. In this edition we delve into numbers and how in warfare, partial or inaccurate figures are inevitable in the midst of conflict.
Let’s start ??!?
It’s not true: from US Marines arriving in Israel to Palestinians staging deaths
?? Video of U.S. soldiers getting off of a plane was not recorded in Israel in October 2023
False claim: Social media users around the world have shared a video of uniformed U.S. military service members getting off of a plane at night, accompanied by the claim that the images show U.S. Marines arriving in Israel in October 2023, amid the Israel-Hamas war.
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?? Video does not show Palestinians pretending to be dead
False claim: Social media users around the world have shared a video showing bodies covered by white sheets. During the clip, one of the bodies moves. According to the posts, the images were recorded in Gaza and are evidence that deaths are being faked by Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas war.
????? The term “fog of war” refers to the world of situational uncertainties faced by participants in military operations regarding the enemy’s actions, and anyone trying to remain informed about a warzone is similarly faced with large gaps in information. Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden caused a stir when he stated that he had “no confidence” in the death toll provided by Palestinian health officials in Gaza. Whether one shares Biden’s doubts on the figures or not, his comment raises questions about what qualifies as reliable information, and who qualifies as a reliable source, in the chaos of a warzone like Gaza.
? Who can you trust?
In a press briefing last week, Biden answered a question about civilian casualties from Israeli bombings in Gaza by stating that he had “no notion that the Palestinians are telling the truth” with their death count. It is true that the Gaza-based Ministry of Health operates under the Hamas-controlled government, and it is logical to bear that connection in mind when looking at data that they provide, at least until it can be verified by independent organizations. That said, the Ministry of Health’s numbers have consistently stood up to scrutiny when humanitarian organizations and international bodies like the UN have checked their work after a period of intense conflict. This track record of reliability is why their numbers are widely used by organizations on the ground and reported by news organizations around the world. Indeed, the Gaza Ministry of Health figures that Biden publicly called into question have been cited in internal State Department communications, according to a HuffPost investigation. One official cited in their report stated in one such instance that “the numbers are likely much higher, according to the UN and NGOs reporting on the situation.” (As of today, the Ministry of Health reports almost 10,000 civilian deaths since October 9th.)
?? Iraq’s precedent
The chaos inherent to warzones makes recent information the least reliable, as analysis and verification take time. The different reported death tolls from the 2003 invasion of Iraq show how widely such numbers can vary, depending on the methods used to count. One of the most cited estimates in American media comes from Iraq Body Count, a British outfit that tracks documented civilian deaths as reported by authorities. Such an analysis benefits from the clarity of its source of information: IBC’s count of over 200,000 deaths in Iraq is not estimated or extrapolated from a sample, but is instead a tabulation of official reported deaths across the country. That said, the difficulty in reporting deaths in a warzone does raise the probability that many casualties are not officially counted. Other estimates from the British medical journal Lancet and the research firm Opinion Research Business reached much higher estimates – over 600,000 and over a million estimated deaths, respectively – by conducting large sample surveys of thousands of people across the country, and then estimating for the entire population. (No estimation of the Iraqi death toll was made by the American government.)
?? Narrowing it down
What’s left is to make sense of one’s sources as a whole. With Iraq, the discussion surrounding a more exact figure remains controversial, however one can surmise broad agreement of a death toll “floor” in the low hundreds of thousands, with numerous estimates placing it higher. The destructive chaos of war itself, combined with political posturing surrounding such undertakings (higher estimates in Iraq were, expectedly, disputed by the American and British governments), increases the challenge of reaching a precise figure. Just as then, those seeking information about Gaza today must search beyond headlines, looking into the quality and track record of their sources to reach any solid conclusions.
Questions, ideas? Please shoot an email to [email protected] or share your thoughts in the comments. This week It’s not True was written and produced by Angelo Paura, Bruno Fuschini, Martina Pagani, and David Mazzucchi. Edited by Angelo Paura from New York, David Mazzucchi from Florence and Bruno Fuschini from London. All images ? Blasting News Creative Department.
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