Focus on the Australian wheat production outlook for 2020/21
SANDRO FILIPPO PUGLISI
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SANDRO FILIPPO PUGLISI
Ag commodities' markets scholar (Wheat, corn, oilseeds, etc.)
- Australia’s wheat production for 2020/21 is forecast at 28.5 million mt, up 2.5 million mt from last month and up 13.3 million mt (+88%) from last season. Area is estimated at 13.0 million ha, unchanged from last month but up 2.8 million ha from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.19 mt/ha, up 10 % from last month, up 47% from last year, and 13% above the 5-year average of 1.94 mt/ha.
- Precipitation has been beneficial since sowing operations commenced in May. Soil moisture in virtually all wheat cropping areas has markedly improved on the relatively dry conditions which prevailed over much of the previous year.
- Wheat production in New South Wales (31% of national production) is the major driver for Australia’s remarkable turnaround this season. Satellite imagery reveals far more winter crop fields and those fields are in healthy conditions.
- New crop Australian wheat futures closed up A$8/mt and made their highest weekly close in over 3 months, even before Friday's worldwide price rally.
- The final jury is still out on the size of the new crop, and it increasingly looks like regional differences between WA and the east could be substantial.
- Australian new crop FOB APW wheat values for Dec. increased to 246.00/mt.