FOBO and AI - so what?
Tim Roy, ASA
M&E Appraisals for Business Owners, Lenders, CPAs, Advisors, Business Brokers, and Attorneys
The human response to new technology has not changed since the first wheat-picker saw the first scythe: 1) Wow that looks awesome! and then 2) Oh, I guess they don't need me anymore.
There is pain in disrupting any existing labor paradigm. Transitions are expensive, emotionally and financially. But they have always happened and are always going to happen.
If your job is at risk from AI, you're not special or excused in any way from dealing with it, any more than the blacksmith of the 18th century or the newspaper reporter of the 20th century.
Technology is going to change the marketplace, so you might as well take the initiative and meet the challenge at the time and place of your choosing.
In valuation and other esoteric-consulting type fields, we have to ask ourselves: is my business based on something a computer can do?
In the near future a computer will probably be able to do some of the valuation work I’m doing right now. I have made peace with that. There are already Excel models and mega-data price guides that are, in certain circumstances, just as useful as custom valuations.
So what can I do that a computer cannot do?
A computer cannot discover that a machinery rental company has been swapping and double-reporting its inventory. A computer cannot explain to an acquisition group why major components of a facility are being utilized at half capacity. It cannot demonstrate to an auditor why a plant is effectively young despite being decades old.
Humans have to be there, physically and psychologically, to piece these things together and communicate them effectively.
ChatGPT can provide a very informative five-paragraph essay on the differences between book value and market value:
But imagine using a ChatGPT composition to explain why and how somebody’s ex-spouse hid their machinery asset values within a business before offering to settle at book value.
Computers can provide the What. But the Why and How - these are human questions with answers specific to every client and every circumstance.
AI has a long way to go before it takes that job.
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