Fly, baby, fly

Google?unveils drone delivery-network, reports the BBC. The new venture is appropriately called?Wing Aviation?and according to its CEO it will be ready by mid-2024 to deliver?millions of boxes.

The basic premise for this business is the last-mile delivery problem.

You can make very efficient delivery between distribution hubs where one truck can bring several tons of goods at once. On the consumer delivery side, you have to find the right size of a truck, the right number trucks and frequency with which they should operate.

The problem is known, but the solution is always difficult. If you don't get it right, you lose lots of money. Just ask companies like UPS or Fedex.

Google is of course not the first one to try something like this. You most likely forgot the exciting news when?Jeff Bezos?(yes, the guy who started Amazon) announced in December, 2013 that within the next 4 to 5 years Amazon would have a system in place to start delivering goods that could arrive within 30 minutes.

That was almost 10 years ago and they never were able to hit that 30-minute goal. However, in June, 2022, Amazon shared the good news that?drones were almost ready to start delivering. Amazon's Prime Air pilot project would run in Lockeford, California. Was this going to be the turning point?

No. Based on the latest report?Prime Air?made 10 deliveries last month. Why? Among other things, very strict?FAA regulations.

Given the complexity of drone delivery, there are few companies that might enter this space. But there is one company with the resources to take on Amazon: Google.

Now, Google is entering the same business in building a sophisticated network of drones, which look like a hybrid between a helicopter and an airplane. Google is putting all its technological might behind this project. It’s devoting enormous computing resources, but also can bring to bear droves of data scientists and its Google Maps platform. It will be hard to compete with Google.

Except there is an additional complication here for Google and Amazon.

They’re not just dealing with the last mile problem. If you watch any of the?promotional videos?you realize that it shows only drones taking off or flying and in one case picking up a package from the local fast food restaurant. What I couldn't find is the actual delivery.

Another thing which is perhaps not noticeable is that the promotional video shows what happens on a day that is sunny, with no wind, no rain or no snow. For your amusement, here is a video clip from the movie?Hunt For Red October, where one of the main characters is dropped from a helicopter onto a submarine. This should illustrate quite well the perils of dropping anything from a flying machine.

The problem is?safe?delivery.

A little bit of wind and your delivery package starts nicely swinging in all directions while the drone is trying to stabilize it. Cold? Suddenly the range drops. Freezing rain? Fog? The list is long.

Firstly, where is it not going to work? Drone delivery is not viable in dense, populated areas where it will still be more economical to use trucks for delivery.

Then you are left with suburbs. Could that work? In theory, you could install delivery pods or landing pads around your house, on your lawn or in the driveway. However, when you add all the FAA restrictions on top of that, suddenly you are talking mainly about delivery to regions outside of main urban places. They will face a challenge making that economical.

To be sure, the engineering going into the delivery drones is amazing. Finding materials that are light and strong, building high capacity batteries that aren’t too heavy, finding electric motors and designing the right shape of the propeller - these are things which will help to build remarkable flying machines. Software engineers will be designing and building navigation algorithms, communication systems which will find use in other industries and applications.

Exciting innovation is happening in front of our eyes and I am very curious how Amazon and Google will solve the last 10 feet of that delivery. It would be easy to keep listing things which can go wrong but despite all the obstacles people are still trying something new. It might not work now or 10 years later, but we always find a way up and forward. And that's the best recurrent pattern.