Flour Distribution & Food Security, Petroleum Prices, Elections, KSA-China Relations, AI Safety Protocols

TOPLINE

• Free flour distribution points are being established in KP to overcome the problem of overcrowding while broiler chicken prices have declined by an average of Rs 100/kg. Moreover, President of Pakistan Kissan Ittehad has called on the government to declare an agricultural emergency in the country to ensure food security.
• Diesel prices may decrease by Rs 15-20/liter, while petrol prices may go down by Rs 4-5/liter from April 1.
• Justice Jamal Khan wondered about the “order of the court” in the suo motu proceedings regarding KP elections while ECP has set Oct 8, 2023 as the dates for the general elections for the KP Assembly. Imran Khan is “hopeful” to win a clear majority in upcoming elections as the Senate passes a bill to restructure CJP powers amid protests.
• Saudi Arabia has agreed to join the SCO as a “dialogue partner” signalling enhancement of ties. China's outstanding green loans exceed $3.2 trillion, accounting for about 10% of the country's total loan balance.
• Over 1,100 Artificial Intelligence experts and industry leaders have proposed a 6 month break from training AI models to allow for the creation of shared safety protocols in the industry.

COMMODITIES - CROPS, LIVESTOCK & HORTICULTURE

• Free Flour Distribution Points: Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa caretaker Information Minister Barrister Feroz Jamal Shah Kaka Khel has said that free flour distribution points are being established in union councils so as to overcome the problem of overcrowding. 833 is the number of distribution points established in Peshawar alone. [ET] [ET] [ET]
• Pakistan's Broiler Market Softens: Broiler chicken prices in Pakistan have declined by an average of Rs 100 per kg in recent weeks, reaching their lowest point since the beginning of 2023, despite the start of the peak demand month of Ramzan. Prices had previously climbed to Rs 500 per kg last month, but now appear to be declining against expectations for this peak demand season. [BR]
• Food Security at Risk in Pakistan: Khalid Mahmood Khokhar, the President of Pakistan Kissan Ittehad (PKI), has called on the federal government to declare an agricultural emergency in the country to ensure food security. Speaking at a press conference at the Karachi Press Club, Khokhar warned that food security could be at risk if immediate action was not taken to increase crop output and develop the agricultural sector. [BR]
• Philanthropist's Fruit Stalls Destroyed: Fruit distribution stalls set up for the deserving people by social media influencer and philanthropist Mustafa Hanif were looted and destroyed by attackers near the Jail Chowrangi flyover, where he was selling fruits for Rs 10 a kg for those unable to buy due to high prices in Ramadan. [Dawn]
• Meeting Held on Flood Relief in Sindh: The Coordination Committee for Monitoring Flood Relief Activities in Sindh, constituted by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, held an important meeting under the chairmanship of Federal Minister for Water Resources Syed Khurshid Ahmad Shah. The meeting was attended by Chief Secretary Sindh, MPA Nawab Sardar Khan Chandio, and officials from various departments. [The Nation]

AGRI-INPUTS, WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• Sindh’s Irrigation Restoration: 2 billion dollars worth of projects would be launched with the support of the World Bank to restore the irrigation system in Sindh. [ET]
• Petroleum Prices Drop in Pakistan: The rates of petroleum products in Pakistan are expected to decrease from April 1 as international crude oil prices have fallen. According to oil marketing companies, diesel prices may decrease by Rs 15-20 per liter, while petrol prices may go down by Rs 4-5 per liter. However, there is a possibility that the Finance Division may keep the price unchanged, according to sources in the industry. [The News] [BR] [ET]
• IMF Delays Pakistan Agreement: The IMF has delayed the staff-level agreement with Pakistan because it rejected the cross-fuel subsidy plan proposed by the petroleum ministry, which lacks sufficient details to verify its sustainability. The Ministry of Finance has distanced itself from the plan, and the announcement was made without consulting the IMF review mission. [The News]
• Finance Ministry Rejects K-Electric: The Ministry of Finance in Pakistan has refused to join an agreement with K-Electric on Tariff Differential Subsidy (TDS), stating that the Power Division should sign on behalf of the government, as it falls under its domain under the Rules of Business. [BR]
• Free Power for Officials: The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) on Wednesday directed the power division to discontinue the facility of free electricity to government officers from Grade 16 to Grade 22.? The move will save the national exchequer Rs9 billion a year. [Dawn] [Dunya]
• ECC to Reconsider Airport Outsourcing: The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet is all set to reconsider Aviation Division’s summary on the engagement of International Finance Corporation (IFC), an arm of World Bank, as Transaction Advisor for outsourcing of airports (Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore) on Thursday (today). [The News]
• Oil Industry Operating Capacity: The Oil Companies' Advisory Council (OCAC) has warned that the oil industry's operating capacity has decreased due to IFEM, which has impacted the cash flow of oil marketing companies. The OCAC has called for the immediate disconnection of negative IFEM and making demurrage costs and LC confirmation charges part of the pricing of motor fuels to keep the industry viable. [The News]
• Green Hydrogen Pursuits in Pakistan: Leading exploration and production (E&P) companies – Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), Pak-Arab Refinery Limited (PARCO), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL), and Government Holdings Private Limited (GHPL) Wednesday signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to explore and pursue green hydrogen opportunities within and outside Pakistan. The collaboration aims to drive the energy transition towards a more sustainable future, leveraging each company’s expertise and resources. [DT] [The News]

AGRI UPDATES & PAKISTAN POLICY

• SC Judgement Contention: The March 1 Supreme Court judgement regarding elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Punjab seems to have become a bone of contention among top judges, as Justice Jamal Khan Mandokhail, while sticking to his guns, wondered about the “order of the court” in the suo motu proceedings. [Dawn] [Dawn]
• National Assembly Passes Bills: The Senate on Thursday passed the Supreme Court (Practice and Procedure) Bill 2023, which aims to deprive the office of the chief justice of Pakistan (CJP) of powers to take suo motu notice in an individual capacity. The NA on Wednesday unanimously passed the Supreme Court (Practice and Procedure), Bill 2023 - aimed at curbing the top judge’s suo motu powers in an individual capacity. The House also passed the Lawyers Welfare and Protection Bill, 2023 and the session was adjourned till 12 noon on Thursday (today). [BR] [Dawn] [ET] [The News]
• Date set for KP Assembly Election: The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has set the date of October 8, 2023 for the general elections to the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly, following the dissolution of the provincial assembly of KP in January 2023 and a March 1, 2023 order by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. [The News]
• Maryam Nawaz Warns CJP: Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Senior Vice President Maryam Nawaz has cautioned Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial against following Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan’s lead, claiming that the PTI chief humiliates his “facilitators” after using them. [ET]
• Chinese Loan Rollover: China is working on a request by Pakistan to roll over a $2-billion loan that matured last week, a top finance ministry official told Reuters. The rollover is critical for the country as its foreign exchange reserves have dipped to just four weeks’ worth of imports at a time when it is locked in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure bailout funds. [Dawn]
• IMF Seeks Verification for Pakistan: The IMF is seeking verification from bilateral countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, on Pakistan's external financing needs ahead of a staff-level agreement, according to Dr Aisha Ghaus Pasha, Minister of State for Finance. She added that financial assistance from bilateral friends was expected soon, which would assist in finalizing the agreement, and clarified that there was no suggestion of subsidy on petroleum products. [The News]

INTERNATIONAL – OVERVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK

• Saudi Arabia Joins SCO: Saudi Arabia has agreed to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a “dialogue partner”, the latest indication of closer political ties with China. The SCO was established in 2001 as a political, economic and security organization to rival Western institutions. [Al Jazeera] [ET] [ST]
• Experts Call for AI Break: Over 1,100 AI experts, industry leaders, including Elon Musk, Stuart Russell, and Steve Wozniak, signed a petition asking for a six-month break from training powerful AI models. They propose that the pause will allow for the creation of shared safety protocols in the industry. [Bloomberg]
• Oil Prices: Oil ticked down on Wednesday in choppy trading as investors looked to pocket profits from two straight days of gains, and as markets debated supply tightness. Brent crude eased 32 cents, or 0.4%, to $78.33 a barrel at 12:39 p.m. ET, while West Texas Intermediate US crude fell 11 cents, or 0.1%, to $73.09. [BR]
• Palm Oil: On Wednesday, Malaysian palm futures increased early on, but the gains were reversed later due to expected tightening production, and its increase was limited by a report indicating that palm oil's premium over rival oils is decreasing. The benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.6% to 3,709 ringgit ($839.90) a tonne, reaching its highest closing in a week after increasing for three consecutive sessions. [BR]
• First Muslim Scottish Leader: Humza Yousaf, the first Muslim to lead a democratic western European nation, was sworn in as Scotland's first minister on Wednesday. He was dressed in a black shalwar kameez at Scotland's highest court, the Court of Session in Edinburgh, as his family watched on. [Dawn] [ET]
• US Tax Policy to Attract Chipmakers: Taiwanese officials are urging the US to offer a better tax deal to the world's most sophisticated chipmakers to incentivize them to set up manufacturing in the US, a move that could potentially anger China. Taiwan has pushed for an agreement to eliminate double taxation, like the US has with dozens of countries, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has acknowledged the absence of such arrangements as a "significant problem" and said the Treasury and State Department will try to address it. [Bloomberg]
• China's $3.2 Trillion Green Loans: China's outstanding green loans currently exceed 22 trillion yuan ($3.2 trillion), accounting for about 10% of the country's total loan balance, People's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang noted. Separately, China's green bonds have hit more than 2.5 trillion yuan, Yi said at the Boao Forum. [Inv] [ET]
• UN Adopts Climate Resolution: The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution by consensus calling for the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to clarify the legal obligations related to climate change. The resolution, pushed for by Vanuatu and Pacific islander youth, asks the ICJ to outline nations’ obligations for protecting Earth’s climate and the legal consequences they face if they fail to do so. [Dawn] [ET]
• India's Heat Wave Threat: India, on course to becoming the world’s most-populous country, risks approaching the limit of human survival as it experiences more intense and frequent heat waves. The risk of fatal heat waves increases as the population grows and urbanization quickens, says climate scientist Kieran Hunt. [Bloomberg]

PAKISTAN - REMAINDERS

• Opinion: Preparing for the ‘Petroyuan’? - “That’s just when a significant decrease in the dollar’s value would be exceptionally supportive of gold and the big banks that hold the highest reserves. And billions, perhaps trillions, of oil money, that currently pass through New York banks in US dollars into US Treasuries would instead follow through Shanghai into the yuan and eventually into gold.” - By Shahab Jafry [BR]
• Opinion: What’s Better Than OpenAI? - “The shift by some software developers toward alternative AI foundation models shows how the next chapter of generative AI - defined as technology capable of generating text, images, or other media in response to prompts - might unfold.” - By Krystal Hu [BR]
• Opinion: Saving Pakistan: - “Pakistan is imploding. The president and prime minister are at war. The judiciary is divided and the military is considering its options. The Election Commission of Pakistan challenges the Constitution and the Supreme Court. The prime minister of Pakistan attacks the chief justice of Pakistan. Government leaders threaten it’s either Imran or them. The doctrine of necessity is being revived by a caretaker government and its puppeteers pulling the strings.” - By Ashraf Jehangir Qazi [Dawn]