FLOP29?

Another Climate Summit, the 29th, has concluded, taking place in Azerbaijan during what is shaping up to be the hottest year on record, 2024.

At COP29 – dubbed the “Finance COP” – an agreement was reached to mobilise funding of $300 billion per year until 2035 to support developing countries in adapting their economies and addressing droughts, floods, sea level rise, and other climate impacts. Beyond this commitment, the text calls on all nations to contribute (voluntarily and through both public and private sources) to increase that figure to $1.3 trillion, which is estimated to be necessary.

Is this amount sufficient? No, it is not. But it is also true that many contributing countries face significant domestic challenges: fiscal and political constraints, limited budgets, the rise of populism, and a protectionist trend – all of which complicate the mobilisation of financing for climate cooperation.

On the other hand, Europe is already the continent contributing the most to climate financing and expects other countries to shoulder their responsibilities as well. These include the Gulf states and China, which, despite their economic power, are still classified as ‘developing economies’ under UN rules and are therefore not formally obligated to contribute.

As such, once again – and as is often the case within the framework of multilateralism, where decisions are made by consensus – the agreement reached was the best possible under the circumstances.

It is true that the pace of international decision-making – slow, cumbersome, and consensus-based – does not easily align with the urgent decisions required to tackle climate change.

COPs can seem frustratingly ineffective, and several voices are already questioning the format and effectiveness of these summits. This year, during the conference, an Open Letter was published, signed by more than 20 experts, former leaders, and scientists – including the former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the former head of the UNFCCC Christiana Figueres, the Executive Chair of Earth4All and Global Ambassador of the Club of Rome Sandrine Dixson-Declève, the Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Prof. Dr. Johan Rockstr?m, and the President of the Foundation for European Progressive Studies, Maria Jo?o Rodrigues. While acknowledging the progress achieved by COPs, the letter highlights the need for structural reform. It called for a “shift from negotiation to implementation, enabling the COP to deliver on agreed commitments and ensure the urgent energy transition and phase-out of fossil energy”.

Another potential approach could involve changing the decision-making rule from consensus to majority voting. However, it is important to note that this delicate balance, on which multilateral decision-making has relied for decades, is one that engages and holds all parties accountable, not just a few. This balance reduces the risk of minority and dissenting countries simply “walking away” from negotiations – a very real risk, especially in a world where nations and blocs are becoming more inward-looking, protectionist, and less open to multilateral dialogue and international cooperation.

Take Argentina this year, for instance. Its delegation walked out of the COP under orders from its populist and climate change-denying president, Javier Milei.

COPs serve an important purpose: keeping climate change in the spotlight and pushing governments and businesses to take necessary action – even if their multilateral structure limits the speed and scale of progress. Therefore, COPs and their consensus-based decisions, with all their limitations and challenges, remain an inclusive forum that engages everyone on a global issue that can only be addressed collectively. ?Should we improve COPs and focus their efforts on effective action? Definitely. But let there be no doubt – we need them now more than ever.

Another positive outcome of COP29 was the long-awaited agreement on the rules for the global carbon credit market, allowing countries to trade carbon credits with each other and with companies.

The next Climate Summit, in 2025 – COP30 – will take place in Brazil, on the doorstep of the Amazon. It is expected to be one of the most significant summits since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 and a true test of the resilience of the 1.5°C goal as a central reference for global climate action.

Countries will be called upon to update their climate commitments for 2035, and we will return to the semantic debates around the concepts of “phasing down” or “phasing out” fossil fuels. After this year, when the COP29 President opened the summit by praising oil and gas as “gifts from God,” we will see if these semantic debates also become matters of mere rhetoric...

Have a great and impactful week!

Angela Lucas , Advisor at the Center for Responsible Business & Leadership?