Flightpath to the future: Part 4 – A winning agenda to bring runaway aviation emissions under control

This is the fourth and final part of my series looking at how the fresh intake of EU Commissioners and MEPs can bring runaway aviation emissions under control.

Part 1 looked at voters’ expectations. Part 2 looked at the current policy pipeline. Part 3 looked at how to shift beyond the narrow-sighted focus on ‘sustainable’ aviation fuels towards truly transformative action.

In this final part, I’ll pull it all together into a (hopefully) winning plan.

Election stations

We are now just three days away from the EU elections, and a month out from a general election in the UK. Aviation emissions are far from the biggest issue in the political debate, given the wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the economic crisis across the continent. But if we look at the priority issues for politicians and – more importantly – voters, there is a strong case to be made that getting runaway aviation emissions under control will help with a lot of these other priorities too.

A strategic agenda

In a few weeks, European leaders will set out their top-line priorities in the ‘Strategic Agenda’. A leaked draft focuses on three main issues: security, competitiveness, and democracy. This is all about Europe’s place in the world: for ‘security’, read ‘Russia’. For ‘competitiveness’, read ‘China and the USA’. And for ‘democracy’, read ‘AI and dinsinformation, including from hostile states’.

Climate doesn’t feature as a headline issue this time (as it did in 2019), but it’s clear that the impacts of climate change would destabilise all three of these priorities, whereas action on climate will support them.

Russia’s geopolitical leverage rests largely on countries’ reliance on the fossil fuel it produces, so let’s use less fossil fuels. China and the USA are investing megabucks into dominating the net zero industries of the future, so Europe needs a green industrialisation plan that can compete globally. And the online climate debate is rife with mis- and disinformation (such as the 15-minute city conspiracy theory) – the best way to counter it is by pushing ahead with fair and effective climate policies that demonstrably make people’s lives better.

For voters, climate is #5 on their list of priorities (and #1 for 15-24 year-olds), behind only poverty and social exclusion, public heath, economy and jobs, and defence and security. Again, climate action can support all these other priorities.

Fairer fiscal policies can shift the tax burden from poorer people who cause barely any pollution, onto the wealthy elite who pollute the most. Cutting emissions also cuts air pollution, which is the largest environmental health risk in Europe. New clean technologies present new economic opportunities for green jobs. And using less fossil fuel makes it harder for hostile foregin actors to have us over a barrel (of oil).

Commissioner for a day

Let’s bring it back to aviation. If I were the next EU Transport Commissioner, this is how my first speech on aviation emissions would go.

The airplane is an iconic symbol of European society.

Every plane that flies overhead is a reminder of human ingenuity, that science and technology can overcome a force as fundamental as gravity, and afford us a glimpse of the heavens.

Planes also puts many of us in the spirit of family holidays, evoking exotic exploration and poolside relaxation, the reward due to us for the hard graft we put into our jobs every day.

But the plane is also the ultimate symbol of inequality. Most Europeans have tightened their belts to weather the cost-of-living crisis, but the jet-set are flying around more than ever.

And the plane is also the ultimate symbol of the climate crisis. Flying causes more climate damage per person than anything else – especially long-haul, first class, and private jets.

I am committed to delivering a bright future for aviation, to safeguarding the benefits of travel so they can be enjoyed by as many Europeans as possible, as far into the future as possible.

To do that, we must decouple aviation from the pollution and social harms cause by fossil fuels and biofuels. We must set aviation onto a path powered by additional, clean, renewable electricity.

This means using clean electricity directly in zero emission battery-powered regional jets to connect our coastal, rural, and island communities.

Using clean electricity to produce green hydrogen for brand new zero emission aircraft designs, starting small but reaching into mainstream market segments over time.

And mixing green hydrogen with carbon captured from the air – also powered by renewables – to make ‘net zero’ fuel for existing aircraft taking on the longest trips.

The critical energy technologies – wind turbines, solar panels, batteries, electrolysers and fuel cells – will all get cheaper and better as we build more and more of them. This is already the norm today for wind, solar and batteries, with electrolysers and fuel cells set to follow close behind.

The critical aircraft technologies are already being built here in Europe. Europe leads the world in aerospace, which is closely tied to defence. Airbus, which employs thousands of engineers in France, Germany, Spain and the UK, is the world’s number one aircraft manufacturer, comfortably outcompeting America’s Boeing and China’s Comac.

Airbus is also leading the world on hydrogen-powered aircraft, aiming to bring a commercial hydrogen airliner into service by 2035. We will do whatever we can to support and accelerate this vital mission.

But it’s not just about Airbus. We have a strong foundation of existing engine makers, such as Rolls-Royce and Safran, plus a vibrant ecosystem of innovators, from H2Fly in Germany, to Heart Aerospace in Sweden, to ZeroAvia in the UK.

Zero emission flight is a critical pillar of the wider net zero transition, and one where Europe is uniquely positioned to lead. Our early mover advantage will support supply chain security, export opportunities, and good quality green jobs.

If building planes is the jewel in the crown of European industry, then let’s make zero emission planes the centrepiece of Europe’s green industrialisation. That is, Europe’s competitive clean tech response to the US, with its Inflation Reduction Act, and China, with its grip on critical raw materials.

We will continue to trade and cooperate on aviation with international partners, but from a position of strength. Together, the US can help Europe eliminate super-heating contrails and deliver effective carbon pricing, while Europe can help stimulate US clean tech on fuels and aerospace. This will be realised through a new transatlantic partnership on aviation and climate change, also including the UK and Canada, and potentially a review of air service agreements.

We’re already on track to make the world’s first zero emission commercial airliner here in Europe. Let’s make Europe home to the world’s first zero emission runway, the world’s first zero emission airport, and the world’s first zero emission airline as well.

We will continue to grow our aviation sector, but that growth can, and must only, be zero emission. Let’s also be the first continent to fully phase out fossil fuels and biofuels in aviation.

The EU has already pump-primed the market for drop-in alternative fuels through the ReFuelEU mandate. This will help break the link with fossil fuels, but we need to break the link with biofuels as well, and make sure we are using all our energy and resources for the best economic and environmental outcomes.

Of course this means tweaking green investment rules, scrapping support for the fossil fuelled planes that are causing the problem, and ramping up support for truly sustainable fuels and technologies.

In the long term, these technologies will bring a lot of economic benefits. Just like electric cars, zero emission planes will be cheaper and easier to maintain than fossil fuelled ones. In addition to the opportunities in aerospace, renewable hotspots like the Nordics and the Iberian Peninsula could also be hubs for scaling up hydrogen fuels.

But to catalyse action in the near term, public investment will be crucial for realising this vision. Given that a small number of people fly frequently, and most people fly rarely if at all, voters clearly expect air passengers – not taxpayers – to pay into the pot that funds this transformation.

So we will raise funds by banning private jets, with multi-million Euro fines for non-compliance.

We will raise funds by extending the European Emissions Trading System, to capture the most expensive and most polluting long-haul flights – including super-heating contrails – all of which are currently exempt.

We will raise funds by scrapping the jet fuel tax loophole, which currently means that a care worker, filling their car to visit their patients, pays more in fuel tax than a billionaire fuelling up their private jet.

What we will not do is price ordinary citizens out of their annual family holidays. Here’s how we will ensure that.

First, we will require airlines to publicly disclose how they are allocating policy costs across their passenger base. Second, if it’s clear that the cost of an annual family holiday is increasing unfairly, we will take steps towards a frequent flyer policy that allocates policy costs exclusively to first class and frequent flyers, to keep flying affordable for all.

The money raised from these policies will be invested not only into clean aviation technologies, but into making it cheaper and easier for Europeans to take the train instead of the plane. No wonder three quarters of Europeans want us to do this, it’s just basic common sense.

In summary, this is our 5-point plan:

1.??????? Ban private jets and make the train cheaper than the plane.

2.??????? Scrap jet fuel tax loopholes and green investment support for fossil fuelled planes.

3.??????? Protect annual family holidays from increasing policy costs.

4.??????? Establish a new transatlantic partnership with the UK, US and Canada on carbon pricing, contrails and zero emission aircraft.

5.??????? Make all new runways zero emission, and deliver the world’s first zero emission aircraft, airport and airline.

I look forward to working with European businesses, citizens and civil society, as well as our international partners, to turn this vision into a reality.

Flightpath to the future

That’s my best effort to present a compelling vision for the future of European aviation.

It is pro-growth to align with politicians’ priorities, and pro-consumer to align with voters’ priorities. It plays to Europe’s strengths to support economic competitiveness and economic security.

Most importantly of all, it is honest about what’s really needed to decarbonise aviation, moving beyond the wishful thinking and special pleading that characterises the policy debate today.

It opens up a conversation about who flies, how often, and why. It accepts that there will be costs as well as benefits, which may lead to less flying overall, and takes a steer from the public on how to allocate these costs in a fair way.

Let's talk

My aim for this series is to spark a bit of debate. To encourage aviation and climate experts across the spectrum – from business to government to civil society – to sense-check their own assumptions, to break free of the confines of the current debate, and get creative about how we can change both politics and policy to accelerate action.

So how about you? What would you do the same, or differently, if you were the EU Transport Commissioner?

Let me know in the comments. I’m looking forward to reading them and to working with the whole aviation and climate community towards a truly sustainable future.