Fleeing war, freeing Ukraine

Ukrainian soldiers and citizens are standing up to Russia’s oppressive invasion and violence. They are fighting for the Ukraine of today to continue existing tomorrow. But a large part of the Ukraine of tomorrow is?currently seeking refuge?inside the European Union’s borders. Since the invasion, three and a half million Ukrainians have had to flee their homes to seek refuge inside the European Union.

Destination Poland

Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, already a large number of Ukrainian migrants were living in the European Union, mostly Poland.?According to some estimates, in 2017 just under 40% of all Ukrainian migrants were in Poland. This amounts to a little under a million migrants.

So even though Ukraine’s longest land border with an EU Member State is that with Romania, with the start of the war, Poland continued to be the destination of choice for Ukrainian migrants, even if now the reason for migration was different and immediate.

“In a historically unprecedented move… those fleeing Ukraine… will be provided with a secure status and access to schools, medical care and work. At the same time, we are working to facilitate efficient crossings at the borders for people and their pets, with the necessary security checks.”

European Commission VP Schinas

On 4th?March the EU officially activated the Temporary Protection Directive making it easier for Ukrainians to enter the European Union.?And Poland itself also took measures at Member State level, making it easier for Ukrainian refugees to arrive in Poland and start afresh. The Polish government quickly facilitated administrative procedures for Ukrainian refugees to get registered on arrival. This opened access for them to all Polish public services. The Polish government also introduced a one-time 300 zloty cash grant for Ukrainians and up to 2400 zloty assistance to Polish families hosting Ukrainian refugees for 2 months.

Most importantly, the Polish government gave Ukrainians access to social benefits, including free healthcare and the 500+ program (which sees families receiving a 500 zloty monthly stipend per child, per month). Housing and food assistance are channeled through local governments with Warsaw and Krakow mobilising significant city resources to receive and assist arriving refugees.

The Assistance Gap

But even though on paper, the response of the central government has been significant, on the ground, the presence of national authorities is hardly felt. Most of the assistance is being provided by NGOs, local communities, and local governments.?An opinion piece?by Polish Human rights Lawyer, Eliza Rutynowska appeared on EU Observer with the title: “Thank Poles, not government, for Ukraine refugee welcome”. Similarly in a letter to the European Commission a group of over?40 non-governmental organisations wrote:

“Polish NGOs mobilized all possible resources and are the ones providing direct humanitarian aid at the border, in the warzone and inside Polish cities and villages and NOT the Polish Government!”

Mobilising resources, not just laws

Until this week over 2 million Ukrainian refugees entered Poland. And this has left non governmental organisations and private individuals doing everything they could think of to try to fill the gap. The gap in resources is being felt. Yet to this day the issue has not dominated the EU agenda. So far, the European Commission has committed 550EUR million in humanitarian assistance. But only part of these funds will be used to assist Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Moreover, one month into this crisis, it is unclear how these funds are going to be accessed.

Without international solidarity, Ukraine’s displacement crisis could turn into catastrophe

UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi

Just the beginning

The sudden displacement of millions of refugees to foreign countries does not only have short term costs. The crisis is not just about refugees finding housing, an income and establishing a new life for themselves. There are also long term problems that will profoundly effect both Poland and Ukraine itself.

A recent law in Ukraine prohibits men of fighting age from leaving. This means that most of the refugees today are women and children. This increases the burden on Poland’s public finances, and Poland’s public services. Ukrainian refugees take jobs which they are able to find, and not necessarily which match their qualifications. This results in skills mismatches which is a loss for both the Polish and Ukrainian economies as they fall short from reflecting the true productivity of the available workforce. In other sectors of the economy, like transport and construction, shortages of key workers are already appearing. This is because Ukrainian men previously living in Poland have gone to Ukraine to fight in the war. In the long run many refugees might not return home. This will create structural shortages in Ukraine’s labour market making it much harder to rebuild Ukraine after the war.

The EU needs to build a long term plan for Ukraine right away. This needs to look not just at rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure and economy, but also at the long term impact on EU Member States directly effected by the crisis, especially Poland. At the EU Summit earlier this week EU Member States agreed to establish a?Ukraine Solidarity Trust Fund?to rebuild the country after the war. But funding is not enough. A detailed plan is also needed.

Right here, right now

The EU needs to treat both the short and long term effects with urgency. Systems need to be immediately established and massive resources immediately deployed, to address the issues brought about by the sudden refugee influx.?We are one month into this humanitarian crisis and neither the funding levels nor the operational deployment of pledged assistance is anywhere near that required by the unfolding crisis. And while funding is the first step to creating a policy response, we have not heard or seen any operational plans for the rollout of the actual assistance.

The necessity of “boots on the ground” does not only apply in the military sense. Boots on the ground (even if a different kind of boot) are necessary to fight the humanitarian crisis. Money alone, even if necessary, is not enough.

This article can also be accessed on my blog here.