Flavors of autonomous vehicles

Autonomous vehicles are receiving much attention due to the investments being made in this technology stemming from the increasing affordability, feasibility and attractiveness. The dictionary definition of “autonomous” is to “be independent and having the power to make own decisions”. In driving, that would mean the driver doing something else while the vehicle takes care of driving safely from point to point.

Autonomous cars are not just one homogeneous class of vehicles. Each key stake holder from traditional auto OEMs to new age Silicon Valley technology players have started creating competitive differentiators in the way these systems are designed and built. This was Elon Musk’s ambitious prediction:

"My guess is that in probably 10 years it will be very unusual for cars to be built that are not fully autonomous," Elon Musk at World Government Summit, Dubai, Feb 2017

According to the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), there are 6 levels of autonomous driving from level 0 for no automation to more advanced levels with driver assistance, partial, conditional, high levels and eventually full hands-free automation. Audi’s recent introduction A8 is the luxury sedan at the highest level of 3 for autonomous commercial vehicles in the market today.

In spite of recent pilots and testing efforts, there is an element of skepticism among experts on when commercially feasible full scale implementations can happen. Jim Hackett who owned Ford’s self-driving program in his previous role and considered a transformational business leader, made this statement after he became the CEO recently. He had a word of caution and opined that robot driven fully autonomous cars replacing humans will take time with a combination of analog and new technologies for new age transportation systems.

"It will be a progressive thing, just like computing. If you think about a vehicle that can drive anywhere, anytime, in any circumstance, cold, rain - that's longer than 2021. And every manufacturer will tell you that", Jim Hackett, Ford CEO

The following are different flavors of autonomous driving systems with increasing levels of complexity and for niche areas of application.

AGV and ASRS for material handling- Even before self-driving cars become popular, AGVs or Autonomous Guided Vehicles were common in manufacturing and in warehouses where the level of maturity was high in automation. AGVs were used to deliver sub-assembles or tools along fixed paths in-house from one known point to another with very little unexpected situations to oversee and handle. ASRS or Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems were a version of robots used in store houses for material handling. This era of digital transformation will see a convergence of systems such as AGVs with “wheels” and ASRS with “arms and wrists” to become what is called Autonomous Mobile Robotics (AMR), sometimes along with humans, for diverse applications. Amazon uses such systems extensively for order fulfillment. Warehouses are already a big area of upcoming investment in countries like India due to reforms such as GST.

Taxi-pods in CBD/known terrain – Countries like Singapore and Sweden, some universities and in some cases companies like Apple are implementing small electric vehicle taxis autonomously driven in well-known geographies for reducing pollution and safe, agile operation without humans. Apple is supposedly launching a shuttle service for its employees to move around inside its campus.

Platooning of trucks – Platooning or small fleets of trucks moving in coordination with a leading truck in front usually with driver is being tested by different teams and countries. The fleet follows the leader truck along highways or for specific usage such as ports. This will help in countries facing shortage of skilled drivers and offer productivity with safe and efficient haulage of heavy loads.

 “Autonomous vehicles and platooning are cornerstones of future sustainable transport systems,” Claes Erixon, Head of Research & Development, Scania.

LAWs – Lethal Autonomous Weapons – There was much public outcry from industry leaders last week against the application of autonomous vehicles in armed conflicts. An industry body which has 116 robotics and AI companies called for a ban on LAWs following the postponement of an UN meeting to discuss regulation of such armed robots. Their concern is that such systems can industrialize war to large scales humans cannot comprehend and eventually get used against civilians.

Autonomous cars have some “hype” around them. In Gartner’s 2017 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, it falls under the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” with more than 10 years expected for mainstream adoption. With increasing levels of awareness each passing day on what these systems can and more importantly cannot do, the generic “autonomous” term will get replaced by more specialized, domain specific terminology and levels.

The days of investing in technology for the sake of it are history. Like all other emerging technologies, unless the technology provider and the implementation champion show a compelling story with significant business impact (safety, quality, cycle time reduction, productivity) to the appropriate target audience, the pace of adoption can be slow. On the other side, early adopters who use it for competitive advantage with innovative implementations will see it offer significant benefits to beat competition.

Note: All opinions and points-of-view expressed are that of the author and do not represent that of any other individual or organization

Image courtesy: By DimiTVP (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons