Flashnote: Ukraine war impacts humanitarian situation in Yemen

21 March 2022

The war in Ukraine is generating global ripple effects impacting the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.?Over the past three weeks all sides of Yemen’s ongoing civil war intensified online disinformation and hate speech. There are intensifying calls for violence on popular social media platforms with some channels urging users to rebel against Houthi rule in Sana’a and launch attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, social media channels managed by loyalists to Alislah, Hadi government, and the South Transitional Council (STC) alongside public facing websites backed by Saudi Arabian and United Arab Emirates (UAE) actors, urged Yemenis to rise up against Houthis rule (#Houthis_leave). Owing to a heavy security presence, however, the anticipated protests never materialised.

Figure 1.?A?tweet?by the Secretary of the Kuwaiti Electronic Media Union urging Yemeni Arabs to rebel against Houthi movement rule.

The Russia-Ukraine war is triggering real world disruptions with domestic repercussions. Yemen is already experiencing shortages in wheat, most of which is imported from Ukraine and Russia, with armed groups blaming one another for?sky-high prices for food.?The price of a bag of flour surged 67% from 6,000 rials a few weeks ago to 10,000 rials today. The price of a rice bag rose 85% to 24,000 rials from 13,000 rials.?Fuel prices?are also surging in both Houthi and Hadi governments controlled areas. The price of a 20 litre gallon of petrol inflated 60% to reach 13,500 rials from 8,500 rials before the Ukrainian war started.

Figure 2. A?Facebook?post by a Yemeni page taking part in the #EndTheSiegeOnYemen campaign.

For their part, social media supporters of Houthis launched a social media campaign in Arabic and English urging an end to the siege on Yemen (#EndTheSiegeOnYemen). They also mobilised other supporters under the slogan “the embargo of oil is an American decision”, calling for a large protest on Twitter, Facebook, and Telegram in Sana’a against the siege, which was held on 7 March 2022 and attended by?thousands of Yemenis. Community organisations, tribes, municipalities, and government ministries launched a parallel social media campaign (#Yemen_Storm) calling for escalating violence against Saudi Arabia and the UAE deemed responsible for “the unjust siege.”

In response to these calls, Houthi Yemeni Armed Forces launched several drone?attacks?against Saudi oil facilities on 12 March 2022 and?promised?further attacks until the siege was lifted. The strikes accompanied an online campaign by Houthi officials and sympathisers called #Operation_breaking_the_siege that garnered support among hardliners determined to see the movement escalate violence until demands are met. The escalation by the Houthis could be motivated by the desire to diminish growing disillusionment and grievances evident by growing complaints voiced on social media by non-Houthi affiliated Yemenis about commodities prices.

Figure 3. A popular?tweet?by Al-Jawf Governorate Advisor loyal to Houthi, Ali Thibh, citing a press release by the Houthi Yemeni armed forces praising the attack and promising further attacks until the siege is lifted.

The Houthis could also be acting opportunistically, taking advantage of a distracted international community to galvanise supporters and launch military operations in Marib city. Securing Marib could ensure more predictable energy supplies for Houthis-controlled areas and generate revenues to stabilise soaring prices. It is worth noting that?Houthi leadership?supported Russia's war against Ukraine despite Russia’s vote in?UN Security Council?on 28 February 2022 labelling the group a terrorist organisation. In Hadi government controlled areas, conflict between STC and Saleh loyalists continues to destabilise the government and the oil and gas sector, especially in Shabwa and Aden.

The Houthis’ escalation should be understood in the context of wider regional and international turmoil. On 13 March 2022, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) launched 12 ballistic missiles on the US Consulate in Erbil, Iraq.?IRGC?claimed it targeted an Israeli “strategic centre” in the area, not the US Consulate, which was later denied by the US. On 4 March 2022, Syrian militias also launched a rocket attack against a US military installation in Deir ez-Zor in the east of Syria. These attacks occurred in the wake of a?European Union?announcement of the suspension of negotiations on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCOPA) after Russia sought to exempt Iran from western sanctions on Russia.

Meanwhile, US media revealed on 10 March 2022 that?two Iranian oil tankers?were seized by the US which signalled troubles at the nuclear negotiations. And in Sana’a, Houthis removed an?Ottoman monument?which signalled Iran’s allies dissatisfaction with Turkey’s recent rapprochement with Israel, the US, and the Gulf. Looking forward, food and fuel crises are likely triggers for escalation of violence and instability. Iranian sanctions, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and regional re-alignments are key regional and international geopolitical triggers for further conflict in Yemen.

Digital Humanitarian Response

The?SecDev Digital Humanitarian Response Mechanism (DHRM)?is an initiative of?SecDev Group?and?SecDev Foundation. It is designed to mitigate digital harms and build community resilience in situations of extreme crisis. Consolidating over a decade of digital humanitarian and development best practice, the DHRM is building tools to detect, deter and disrupt digital harms while strengthening long-term community resilience. The DHRM team is working with leading social media and technology platforms to monitor and reduce online digital harms such as misinformation, disinformation, hate speech and extremism. At the local level, civil society and youth leaders are co-creating sustainable approaches to reduce and prevent the harmful effects of mis/disinformation within communities. The DHRM combines agile and experienced nonprofit digital responders with world-class commercial digital overwatch capabilities.

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