Flashback History of Tense Relations Between Russia and Ukraine

by: Aidatul Fitriyah

Russia and Ukraine have been in conflict since 2014 or since Kyiv's pro-Moscow leader was ousted. This time, the two countries that were once part of the Soviet Union were on the verge of war. In recent weeks, the pro-Kyiv United States accused Moscow of deploying more than 100,000 troops on Russia's border with Ukraine and in Crimea, the region split from Ukraine and joined Russia.

The causes of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are back in the spotlight. Lately, the two countries are indeed in the stage of a high-level crisis, so it is predicted that an invasion could be carried out at any time.

Several countries, including the United States, intervened to threaten Russia if it was confirmed that an invasion would be carried out. Even the US and several countries were sent to aid in the form of military equipment to Ukraine if it was confirmed that an invasion plan would be carried out.

Then what is the cause of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? Let us look at the following explanation to understand the beginning of the feud between Russia and Ukraine.

What is now Ukraine, Russia, and neighboring countries; Belarusians, born on the banks of the Dnieper River, almost 1,200 years ago in Kievan Rus, a medieval superpower that covered much of Eastern Europe. However, Russia and Ukraine are linguistically, historically, and politically separated. Putin, however, has repeatedly claimed that Russia and Ukraine are "one person", part of a "Russian civilization" that also includes neighboring countries, Belarusian. Ukraine rejected his claim. Ukraine underwent two revolutions in 2005 and 2014, leaving Russian supremacy and seeking to join the European Union and NATO. Putin was furious at the prospect of a NATO base next to his border and said Ukraine joining the US-led transatlantic alliance would mark a "red line" crossing.

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Support Separatists

After the 2014 Ukrainian Dignity Revolution, which saw months of protests eventually topple pro-Moscow Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, Putin used the power vacuum to annex Crimea and support separatists in the southeastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. The Kremlin rejects the Crimea annexation narrative. They insisted that Crimea, with the most votes, chose to split with Ukraine and join Russia. Separatist groups in Donetsk and Luhansk also broke away from Ukraine by establishing an authoritarian and economically weak "People's Republic". Both regions reinstated the death penalty. They ran dozens of concentration camps where dissidents were tortured and executed.

The conflict turned into the hottest war in Europe. It has killed more than 13,000 and displaced millions. In 2014, the Ukrainian military was under-equipped and demoralized, while the separatists had Russian "consultants" and weaponry. Today, however, Ukraine is much stronger militarily and morally, and the thousands of volunteers who helped oust the separatists are ready to do it again.

Ukraine buys or receives advanced weaponry from the West and Turkey, including Javelin missiles which have proved lethal to separatist tanks, and Bayraktar drones that played a crucial role in last year's war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The first impeachment of former US President Donald Trump was prompted by the suspension of military aid and arms exports to Kyiv. His successor Joe Biden may send lethal weapons and advisers in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been pushing for domestic development and production of Western weapons. Despite ideological and political reasons, Putin has desperately sought Ukraine's membership in the Moscow-dominated free trade bloc launched in 2000. The Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) unites several former Soviet republics. It is widely seen as the first step towards reincarnation of the Soviet Union. With a population of 43 million and strong agricultural and industrial output, Ukraine was supposed to be the most crucial part of the EAEC after Russia, but Kyiv refused to join.

Ukraine's economy sank after cutting ties with Russia, once its most significant economic partner. Nevertheless, seven years after the conflict, the recession is over. World prices for grain and steel, Ukraine's main exports, skyrocket, and Ukrainian companies and migrant workers find new ways to the West.

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Geo Politics

Russia's rating of satisfaction with Putin has dropped due to the economic hardship caused by the pandemic. The Kremlin recalls its stratospheric rating of nearly 90 percent after the annexation of Crimea. A new war or escalation could distract the public from domestic problems and increase Putin's popularity. He has also sought to restore dialogue with the West, especially the US, and amassing an army next to Ukraine has been successful. In the spring, tens of thousands of soldiers were mobilized.

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?References:

Muhaimin, M. (2022, January 21). Inilah Penyebab Rusia dan Ukraina di Ambang Perang. SINDOnews.com. Retrieved March 2, 2022, from https://international.sindonews.com/read/663881/41/inilah-penyebab-rusia-dan-ukraina-di-ambang-perang-1642784483

Tim detikcom. (2022, February 15). Penyebab Konflik Rusia dan Ukraina Sebenarnya Apa? Ini Runutannya. detiknews. Retrieved March 2, 2022, from https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-5943005/penyebab-konflik-rusia-dan-ukraina-sebenarnya-apa-ini-runutannya/2