FL-1 Changing Situation, NJ Rep. Sherrill Announces 2025 Candidacy, CA Poll Assesses Harris Gov Chances

Providing you with a recap of this week’s top five news items and resources straight from our experts.

FL-1 Changing Situation

Now that ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) has withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General, there is some chance he could return to take the congressional seat in the next term because he was duly elected in November.? Though he stated that he “intends” not to take the oath of office in the new Congress, his resignation only applies to the current Congress.? Therefore, he could return to the House.

Though speculation will be running rampant about what may happen in this congressional seat, several candidates are making moves to enter what they believe will be a special election.? The three main candidates are state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) and state Reps. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre).? The battle to succeed Mr. Gaetz, if one comes to fruition, will be decided in the Republican primary.? The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which is the safest Republican seat in the Sunshine State.

New Jersey Rep. Sherrill Announces 2025 Candidacy

As promised she would do after the 2024 general election, Garden State US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) officially announced her gubernatorial candidacy in the New Jersey open 2025 campaign.

Already in the Democratic primary are US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, Montclair Mayor Stephen Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Since the New Jersey elections are held in the odd-numbered years, neither US House member will have to risk his or her seat to run for Governor.

For the Republicans, 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close 51-48% victory is running again as is state Sen. John Bramnick (R-Plainfield), ex-state Sen. Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.

California Poll Assesses Harris Gov Chances

The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies conducted one of their regular surveys of the Golden State electorate and interestingly asked a question about whether the respondents would support Vice President Kamala Harris for Governor of California in 2026 even before the 2024 election had concluded. The survey was conducted during the 10/22-29 period and included 4,341 registered voters who participated through an online questionnaire.

It is possible that Ms. Harris’ numbers today would be less than reported here considering her subsequent defeat at the national level, though she did earn 58.7% of the vote in California.

In any event, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), an unsuccessful 2022 US Senate candidate, leads the 2026 gubernatorial jungle primary ballot test that did not directly include Ms. Harris. Within the tightly bunched group, Rep. Porter places first with 13% preference over Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and GOP state Senator and former gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle. The two have 12 and 11% support, respectively. In third place, all with 7% support, are a trio of Democrats: Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.

When asked if the respondents would consider supporting Ms. Harris, 46% said they would be likely (33%) or somewhat likely (13%) to do so. A total of 42%, said not too likely (6%) or not at all likely (36%).?

Nebraska Independent Osborn May Return

Independent Dan Osborn attracted a lot national political attention in his race against Sen. Deb Fischer (R). He ran hard and polling even showed him leading the Senator in several surveys. In the end, he would lose 53-47%. Without a Democratic nominee, Mr. Osborn was able to build a coalition that Democratic leaders backed, which helped make him a viable candidate.

When asked this week whether he might return to challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) or Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), Mr. Osborn indicated that that he would consider running again, but first must “return to work tomorrow and start paying bills.”

Sen. Ricketts, who won the 2024 special election to serve the balance of the current term by a 63-37% margin, will be on the ballot again in 2026 as he runs for the full six-year term. With Democratic state Senator Tony Vargas losing consecutive close elections to Rep. Bacon, the Democratic leadership will very likely look for a new candidate to oppose the five-term Congressman in 2026.

Harris, Vance Top New 2028 Primary Poll

Echelon Insights conducted a national poll shortly after the 2024 election (11/11-14; 1,010 US registered voters; 394 self-identified Democrats; 394 self-identified Republicans; online) and while the results don’t have much relevance for a nomination election four years in the future, the post-election survey does provide some interesting data points.

First, the partisan sample sizes are too low for a national poll to draw major conclusions, but the respective leading candidates for the 2028 party nominations are so large as to give us a snapshot into what people believe just after the current election.? For the Republicans, Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance is out to a big lead, capturing 37% support.? His closest rivals, former presidential candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Nicky Haley, each capture 9% support.? Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is next with 8%, as Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) follow with 5% apiece.

For the Democrats, and the data point attracting the most attention, Vice President Kamala Harris, despite her clear loss to President-Elect Trump, still commands the Democratic field with 41% support for another run.? Trailing way behind with 8% support are California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro who posts 7%, while Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and 2024 Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz draw 5% apiece.?

A friendly reminder: We've done our research, but you should, too! Check reliable sources for the most up to date information.

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