Five Things That Will Stay the Same in 2025

As we enter 2025, the world is on the brink of profound technological, economic, and geopolitical shifts. Headlines are dominated by the march of artificial intelligence, the decoupling of global economies, and the rapid expansion of renewable energy. Change is an irresistible force, and it’s tempting to see everything through that lens. But change is only half the story.

For investors, executives, and policymakers, understanding what won’t change is just as critical as predicting what will. Constants provide the foundation for strategic decisions, offering stability and focus amidst the chaos of transformation. Yet, many of these constants are misjudged, either assumed to be on the verge of collapse or overlooked entirely. That’s where this series comes in.

This article is the first in a four-part exploration of the trends that will define 2025. Over the coming weeks, we’ll cover:

• Five things that will change.
• Five things that are unexpected.
• And five things that probably won’t happen, but would reshape the world if they did.

We start here, with five key trends that will stay the same in 2025. These are the bedrocks of strategy that executives and investors might assume are shifting—but aren’t. Recognizing these constants isn’t just about reassurance; it’s about leveraging them for competitive advantage.

1. The Dollar Remains the Default

Amid the growing chorus predicting the decline of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, it’s tempting to believe that its dominance is nearing an end. Critics point to the rise of BRICS nations promoting alternative trade currencies, the increasing adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and mounting geopolitical tensions to argue that the dollar is on shaky ground. But these arguments miss the larger and more complex reality: the dollar is not just a currency. It is the foundation of an interconnected global system—one that is extraordinarily difficult to displace.

The dollar’s strength comes from a confluence of structural advantages that no alternative can currently match. Chief among these is the unparalleled depth and liquidity of U.S. capital markets. The U.S. Treasury market, for example, is the safest and most liquid financial system in the world. It offers governments, corporations, and investors a reliable haven for their assets, particularly during times of crisis. When uncertainty grips global markets, it’s the dollar—not the euro, yuan, or a hypothetical BRICS currency—that investors turn to. This is not a reflection of inertia but of trust. The transparency, rule of law, and institutional strength underpinning the U.S. financial system make the dollar uniquely attractive.

Moreover, the alternatives face significant barriers. Take the Chinese yuan. While China has worked aggressively to internationalize its currency, strict capital controls make the yuan unattractive for global investors. It’s difficult to build trust in a currency when the issuing government can arbitrarily restrict its movement. The euro, while the second-most-held reserve currency, suffers from its own challenges. The lack of a fiscal union in the European Union makes the euro vulnerable to fragmentation during crises. And the much-discussed BRICS currency remains more aspirational than operational; the political and economic disparities among its members make sustaining such a unified monetary system implausible.

Then there’s the network effect. The dollar’s dominance is self-reinforcing. Over 88% of international trade transactions are conducted in dollars, even when the United States isn’t directly involved. Shifting away from the dollar would require a systemic overhaul of trade agreements, financial infrastructure, and payment systems—an enormously disruptive process that few countries are willing to risk.

For businesses and investors, the fixation on "de-dollarization" risks becoming a distraction. Concerns over the dollar’s decline often lead to unnecessary hedging strategies or diversification efforts that yield little real benefit. Instead, companies would do better to focus on leveraging the stability and efficiency of dollar-backed systems. The dollar will remain the cornerstone of global trade and finance in 2025, providing a level of predictability that is invaluable amid broader geopolitical uncertainty.

2. The U.S. Defense-Industrial Complex Is Still a Juggernaut

For all the talk of global power shifts, one constant remains clear: the United States’ dominance in defense is unparalleled, and that dominance shows no signs of waning. While the headlines often focus on emerging powers like China or the rearmament of European nations, the U.S. defense-industrial complex continues to be the backbone of global security and innovation. With a defense budget that dwarfs those of the next ten nations combined, the United States is not just a military superpower—it’s the engine of a vast and interconnected ecosystem that fuels both national and allied security.

What makes this dominance so enduring is the scale and scope of U.S. defense investments. In 2023, defense spending exceeded $800 billion, enabling the development of cutting-edge technologies in artificial intelligence, space infrastructure, and cybersecurity. These are not just military tools; they are foundational to the emerging domains of warfare that will define the next decade. Whether it’s satellite-based missile defense systems or AI-driven battlefield logistics, the United States continues to lead in areas that other nations are only beginning to explore.

Equally important is the U.S.’s role as a provider of interoperable defense systems to its allies. From Japan to Germany, nations that are increasing their defense budgets are doing so in ways that align with U.S. capabilities and technologies. The global proliferation of systems like the F-35 fighter jet, which relies on proprietary U.S. technology, creates a dependence that extends beyond hardware. It integrates allies into a broader network of shared data, strategy, and supply chains. This dependency ensures that even as some nations seek greater autonomy in defense, their strategic reliance on U.S. systems will persist.

The expanding scope of warfare is another factor cementing U.S. dominance. The militarization of space, for example, has elevated the importance of initiatives like the U.S. Space Force, which is investing heavily in satellite defense and orbital infrastructure. Similarly, the rise of cyber warfare has placed the United States at the forefront of developing networked defenses capable of responding to increasingly sophisticated threats. These domains require the kind of financial and technological resources that few other nations can muster.

For companies and startups, the implications are clear. The U.S. defense sector represents not just a stable market but a growing one, driven by long-term geopolitical trends. Startups working on dual-use technologies—those with both commercial and military applications—should see the Pentagon and its associated networks as critical partners. Defense funding not only provides access to capital but also creates opportunities to scale technologies through integration into military systems.

The temptation to diversify into fragmented global defense markets should be approached cautiously. While international demand is growing, it lacks the scale and cohesion of U.S. spending. Aligning with U.S. priorities, particularly in emerging technologies like AI, robotics, and space, offers a far more reliable path to growth. The defense-industrial complex is more than a constant—it is a cornerstone of global security and a key driver of technological advancement. In 2025, it will remain as vital as ever.

3. China’s Growth Model Is Stalling, but Control Isn't

China’s days of meteoric GDP growth are over, replaced by the growing pains of an economy grappling with demographic decline, mounting debt, and a real estate crisis. The economic engine that propelled the nation to superpower status has slowed, and with it, the world’s expectations for China as a driver of global growth. But while the sheen of its economic miracle fades, Beijing’s control over critical industries and global supply chains remains firm—and that control will continue to shape the strategic calculations of multinational firms in 2025.

China’s grip is most evident in industries that underpin the global economy. It dominates the production of rare earth minerals, the building blocks of semiconductors, renewable energy systems, and advanced military technology. With over 60% of global rare earth production under its control, China remains indispensable, even as nations scramble to diversify sources. Similarly, its manufacturing sector continues to churn out the components essential to clean energy transitions, from solar panels to EV batteries. These choke points, carefully cultivated by Beijing’s industrial policies, are tools of immense geopolitical leverage.

Yet it isn’t just resources and manufacturing that bind the world to China—it’s the scale of its consumer market. A population of over 1.4 billion and a rising middle class ensure that, despite political risk, global companies still see China as an irreplaceable growth opportunity. But navigating this market requires accepting its complexities. Beijing’s regulatory interventions, from crackdowns on foreign firms to tighter control over data, make it clear that access comes on its terms.

For businesses, the allure of decoupling from China may sound appealing, but reality paints a different picture. Exiting China’s supply chains entirely would mean losing access to not only its production capacity but also the expertise and infrastructure that have taken decades to build. While diversifying production to countries like Vietnam, India, or Mexico is prudent, cutting ties with China is neither realistic nor wise. Instead, companies must find a middle path: maintaining strategic engagement with China while investing in redundancies elsewhere. This dual strategy is the only way to mitigate geopolitical risk without sacrificing competitiveness.

China’s growth may be slowing, but its role as a lynchpin of global supply chains and a gatekeeper to essential resources ensures that its influence will remain a defining force in 2025. Those who understand this and plan accordingly will be better positioned to navigate the increasingly complex dynamics of the global economy.

4. Big Tech’s Monopoly on Infrastructure Will Stay Firm

The rise of generative AI and the hype surrounding decentralized technologies like blockchain have sparked visions of a world where startups and smaller firms finally topple Big Tech’s dominance. But while this narrative resonates with those who see disruption as inevitable, it misses a fundamental truth: the power of companies like 微软 , 亚马逊 , and 谷歌 is not built on their products alone—it’s built on the infrastructure they own. And that infrastructure remains virtually unchallenged.

At the heart of Big Tech’s dominance is its control over the platforms that power modern innovation. Cloud computing is a perfect example. Amazon Web Services (AWS) , Microsoft Azure , and Google Cloud collectively provide the backbone for the majority of digital businesses worldwide. From startups to multinational corporations, these platforms are indispensable, offering not just storage but also the computational power and developer tools needed to scale. Even the generative AI revolution, heralded as a democratizing force, operates within this ecosystem. OpenAI 's models, for instance, rely on Microsoft’s Azure cloud, while Google and Amazon are integrating similar AI capabilities directly into their infrastructure. The cost and complexity of building alternatives are prohibitive, meaning that Big Tech’s platforms remain the gatekeepers for anyone looking to innovate at scale.

But Big Tech’s reach goes beyond digital infrastructure. The physical investments these companies have made—from sprawling data centers to the undersea cables that connect continents—give them a level of operational control that new entrants simply can’t replicate. This dominance creates a feedback loop: as companies rely on Big Tech’s systems, their scale grows, which in turn strengthens their infrastructure and widens the gap between incumbents and challengers.

For companies hoping to scale in this environment, the question isn’t whether to engage with Big Tech but how. Partnering strategically with these giants can unlock opportunities, but it requires careful navigation to avoid overdependence. For policymakers, the challenge lies in balancing the benefits of these platforms with the risks of monopolistic practices, ensuring that innovation isn’t stifled by their dominance.

The dominance of Big Tech isn’t waning; it’s evolving. These companies have entrenched themselves so deeply in the infrastructure of the digital and physical worlds that their role as the enablers of innovation is unlikely to change in 2025. Businesses that recognize this reality and align their strategies accordingly will find themselves better equipped to thrive in the years ahead.

5. Energy Transitions Will Move at a Crawl

The global push toward renewable energy has gained undeniable momentum, capturing headlines and driving ambitious government pledges to decarbonize. It’s tempting to believe that fossil fuels are in their twilight years, ready to be replaced by wind, solar, and hydrogen on a global scale. Yet, the energy transition, while real, is progressing far more slowly than the headlines suggest. Beneath the optimism lies a sobering reality: the infrastructure required for a full-scale shift to renewables is nowhere near ready.

The biggest bottleneck is the grid. Renewable energy sources like solar and wind are inherently intermittent, dependent on weather and daylight. Without massive investments in energy storage, these fluctuations make renewables unreliable as a sole power source. While advancements in battery technology are promising, they remain far from the scale required to support entire nations. Moreover, the grids themselves—many designed decades ago—are ill-equipped to handle the demands of renewable integration. Upgrading these systems is a generational project, not a short-term fix.

Then there’s the inertia of industrial reliance on fossil fuels. In countries like India and the United States, coal, oil, and natural gas remain the backbone of power generation, not just because of their availability but also because they ensure energy reliability. The global economy, from manufacturing to transportation, remains deeply intertwined with these traditional energy sources, and replacing them requires more than policy mandates—it demands an overhaul of entire industries.

This doesn’t mean the energy transition isn’t happening. Investment in renewables continues to grow, and technological breakthroughs are increasingly reducing costs. However, the pace of transition is misaligned with public expectations. Governments and corporations, while committed to cleaner energy, prioritize stability and reliability over radical shifts. This pragmatic approach ensures that fossil fuels will continue to play a critical role in the global energy mix for years to come.

For companies and investors, betting too heavily on rapid green transitions risks creating stranded assets and overexposing portfolios to sectors that may take decades to mature fully. A more resilient strategy lies in hybrid approaches—balancing investments in renewables with improvements in the efficiency and sustainability of traditional energy systems. The energy markets of 2025 will not be defined by revolution but by a careful balancing act, where progress is measured incrementally rather than in leaps.

The End…For Now

As we look ahead to 2025, it’s easy to focus on change—the trends, technologies, and geopolitical dynamics poised to reshape the global landscape. But understanding what will stay the same is just as critical. These constants are not static—they are enduring forces that continue to anchor the world’s economic, technological, and geopolitical systems. For investors, executives, and policymakers, recognizing and leveraging these foundational elements is essential for navigating uncertainty.

The resilience of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency offers stability amid financial turbulence, while the unmatched dominance of the U.S. defense-industrial complex guarantees a steady engine for innovation and security. In China, the economic slowdown belies the country’s continued control over critical industries and supply chains, demanding strategic engagement rather than disengagement. Big Tech, far from being dethroned, will remain the backbone of global innovation, shaping the platforms and ecosystems that others rely on to scale. And in energy, the transition to renewables will move forward—but only as quickly as infrastructure and industrial realities allow.

These five constants are not just markers of continuity—they are opportunities for those who understand them deeply. For companies, they represent areas to build resilience and align strategies. For investors, they offer clarity amid the noise of change. And for policymakers, they highlight the systems that need careful stewardship to ensure stability and progress.

In the next article in this series, we’ll turn to the trends that will change in 2025. From the rise of friendshoring to the commercialization of space, these shifts are where new opportunities—and new risks—will emerge. For now, let’s appreciate the foundations of stability that will carry us into the future. Change is inevitable, but so, too, is the staying power of these enduring forces.

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