Five (somewhat) contrarian predictions on global politics and policy as we head into 2020

 1 There will be a considerable backlash to the current wave of sustainability and climate politics:

While – in the wake of Greta Thunberg’s activism and increasingly visible and tangible effects of global warming – significant effort is currently being invested in the implementation of “green new deals” and “climate action”, the backlash sure is coming.

At the core of recent protests in political systems and economies as varied as France and Ecuador is the immediate impact of cuts to fuel subsidies, which pushes a certain segment of the population that is already struggling economically and frustrated politically over the edge. This will only continue as further, more extreme measures are being taken (protests by industry and corporations whose business models are impacted aside).

Future initiatives will need to take a more balanced approach, by making sure that the impacts – particularly on the less affluent – of any climate measures are less extreme (e.g. offsetting of imposed financial cost), and/or come with an adequate transition period for citizens to adjust to the new reality.  

2 Migration will continue to be a top concern for many:

Identity politics is here to stay, and so is migration. While new policy areas have emerged as top concerns, citizens in many countries in the Western sphere still have migration in the back of their minds. States and social systems too are grappling with the mid- to long-term ramifications of recent immigration waves.

The success or failure of the labour market and cultural integration of recently arrived populations will be key here, as well as a more effective way to address reduced participation and integration in second-generation immigrants.

3 Geopolitics will continue to be volatile, and inject that volatility into markets - and we will continue to see more protectionist measures:

While the picture appears to be getting clearer on Brexit, and China and the US seem to strike a first truce in the on-going trade war that has rattled markets as well as international organizations (and arguably the world order at large), chances are that the volatility in geopolitics is here to stay.

In the event of a re-election of Trump, the new style of American foreign policy will mean more bilateral deals/negotiations (vs. use of traditional instruments and arenas, such as the WTO), and thus more uncertainty. The escalation of the trade war and talk of “decoupling” has also forced Europe to adopt a more protectionist approach, so that there is no champion of the “old” order left.

While bilateral trade agreements and phases of de-escalation are likely, I would argue that by and large, the current atmosphere of uncertainty and tit-for-tat will persist. Besides the hampering effect of tariffs as such, the overall mood set by these policy interventions will dampen spending and investments, and thus continue to lower global growth.  

4 The repositioning of the “left” will accelerate, or it will disintegrate:

In many Western countries, traditional parties of the so-called “left” have fared poorly in recent elections. The internal process of redefining who they are and what they stand for on topics such as migration, climate and digitalization will accelerate next year, with key races in Germany and the US as well as a process of soul-searching in the UK Labour Party.

The Left will either find a more pronounced stand on current priorities of their voter base, and re-emerge successfully, or it will gradually disappear into irrelevance. As recent campaigns in the US and the UK have shown, there is still an interest in traditionally “left” topics and policy areas (taxation, labour market) and a spark of enthusiasm among a particular brand of young voters, but the broader coalition of voters just is not there at this point. If that process continues, the traditional “left” will crumble, this might either give rise to a new brand of “left-ish” party/movement, or result in disappointed voters turning to centrist or conservative parties (which would in turn adopt a more “social” stance on some core issues for this new voter base).

5 The process of policy-making itself will need to adapt:

In a world that is changing ever more swiftly, with challenges becoming ever more complex, the process of policy-making itself is in need of an overhaul. Calls by citizens for increased transparency of and participation in the democratic process will grow louder. At the same time, the old system of special interests and consultation of institutional stakeholders is being questioned as it seems to foster biases and promote policies that do not benefit the broader public.

In the years to come, citizens will expect a more fact-based, data-driven approach to policy-making that is faster and more effective in addressing their reality and lived experience.

Policy-makers will have to start addressing issues holistically, in particular by thinking more proactively about how the private, non-profit and public sector can work together to solve the most pressing issues of our time.