Five Predictions of How Life Will Change After COVID-19

Never before in human history has an event simultaneously impacted more people on the planet than COVID-19. Just as World War II and the Great Depression forever changed history in the years following those events, so will COVID-19. The impact of the disease will vastly accelerate some pre-crisis trends, while crushing others. This will not be the last global pandemic in our lifetime, and the indelible impact that COVID-19 has had on the psyches of many people will lead to profound change.  A few predictions about life over the next 20 years: 

1)     The decline of the Megacity: Reversing decades long migration to urban centers, the risks of living in high density proximity with tens of millions of people have become apparent. While no one is predicting sharp negative migration from urban centers, growth rates will inevitably decline. Expect technology to enable lower density habitation in the future, with smaller, lower density offices sprouting up outside of major urban centers.

2)     The beginning of true e-commerce dominance: The dependence on e-commerce that people have experienced during this crisis will permanently change the way that millions of people buy things. This will represent an inflection point in a trend that was already well underway. Despite the capacity issues that Amazon and others have seen due to volume spikes, the convenience and safety of purchasing online will change habits permanently, with retail store visits occurring only when absolutely necessary. This has profound implications for how big companies such as Amazon and Alibaba can become, as e-commerce becomes the dominant form of retail purchases, and scale matters. Expect a small number of dominant e-commerce companies at the size and scale of sovereign states. 

3)     The rise of the internet as an enabler of daily life: Nothing will replace human to human interaction. However, the crisis has exposed millions of people to a remote work environment, remote education, and even remote happy hours. Zoom has become a generic descriptor overnight. However, Zoom fatigue, long hours due to lack of separation between home life and work life is leading to discomfort that will create huge opportunities for those who solve these problems. Expect user friendly interfaces to facilitate remote life such as new video screens and devices, holographic images, and faster broadband.   

4)     The end of public transportation: For a population that lived through this life-changing event, there will be a premium on the safety and security of private transportation for everyone who can afford it. Expect individual car ownership to increase dramatically, driven by an all-electric future that is coming in the automobile industry. Also expect autonomous, on-demand transportation services as a cost-effective way to enable efficient, private transportation for those who reject car ownership.

5)     The rise of telemedicine: The safety and security of a doctors visit at home experienced during COVID-19 will reinforce a positive trend toward telemedicine for all but the most urgent medical conditions. Adoption will be wide and broad as willingness to accept telemedicine was already prevalent among a majority of people. This will have a positive impact on healthcare costs and patient outcomes, but will create dislocation among healthcare providers with large physical infrastructures, reliant on large patient numbers to visit those sites as revenue generators. Expect the shift to telemedicine to be driven by payers and employers to lower healthcare costs. Also expect pharmaceutical research and development to become faster, cheaper and more productive driven by remote visits, tech-enabled platforms, and reduced infrastructure. 

The novel coronavirus has resulted in pain and suffering of millions of people. It is a tragedy. Yet, every tragedy that impacts millions of people, such as the Great Depression and World War II, creates an inflection point that changes the course of history. This crisis will be no different.