Five Lessons from the Pandemic

Internationally, Germany is often cited as role model for the way in which it handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Together with our citizens, we prevented our healthcare system from being overwhelmed. The infection curve has flattened significantly and we suffered fewer fatalities than many other countries. However, this does not make us over-confident; it makes us humble.

As is often the case, we will only know in retrospect whether we always made the right decision. The global spread of this new virus brings with it great uncertainty. No one can reliably predict how the pandemic will evolve in the coming weeks or months. There is a real danger that Germany will experience a second wave. How high this risk really is remains unclear and this is why we remain vigilant.

At the same time, we cannot ignore the impact of the measures taken. This crisis will affect us for a long time to come, even without a second wave. This is why now is the time to learn our first lessons from the pandemic, notwithstanding the many uncertainties. Five points strike me as being particularly noteworthy in this context.

First: Policy-makers are well-advised to rely on the common sense of citizens and entrepreneurs. Many of them adapted their behaviour even before measures were put in place. We are coping comparably well with the pandemic because the vast majority of people in our country act responsibly and want to do their part. This can provide a basis for a modern concept of statehood. By acting as facilitator and protector of its citizens and its economy, the State creates the framework conditions for self-determined living. In simple terms, this means: actively intervening where government action creates new opportunities and greater security; leaving well alone where state interference restricts opportunities and produces uncertainty. 

Second: The coronavirus crisis showed us the importance of a state that is robust in all areas. By international comparison, Germany has coped well with the pandemic because there is a great deal of trust in state institutions. To a certain degree, however, it is actually “trust on credit” as our state is currently not robust enough in all areas. Given the current interest rates, it would therefore be particularly sensible to invest in education, research and infrastructure. If these investments improve our country's resilience and ability to act in key areas, they will be repaid with interest.

Third: A strong economy and social security are two sides of the same coin – prosperity. A strong economy makes social security possible. A robust social state in turn safeguards the economy. Although I believe it is right to keep social spending below the 40 percent threshold, discussions like those we had in the early 2000s would not be productive today. At that time, the aim was to make tried and tested, high-quality products internationally competitive, for instance by decreasing labour costs per unit. Today, the main goal is to pave the way for new, innovative products. In any case, we will certainly not improve our competitiveness with Silicon Valley or China if our citizens have less money to spend. On the contrary. Higher domestic demand makes us more robust in the face of international crises.

Fourth: The pandemic has shown that an interconnected world needs global crisis management. Unfortunately, multilateral cooperation has become more difficult in recent years, even among close allies. The current crisis should serve as a wake-up call. No one country can control a pandemic on its own. We need international cooperation and, if the institutions entrusted with these tasks do not function well enough, we must join together to reform them. This is why I see an increased involvement in WHO as one of the tasks incumbent on the EU. 

Fifth: We Europeans have no choice but to rethink how much globalisation and thus international interdependency we want and how much national and european sovereignty we need. We need both access to and control of the most modern technologies. This would suggest, among other things, pooling our research funding. In addition, what is true for face masks is also true in this case. We should diversify our supply chains to avoid risking total dependence on any single country or region.

Optimistic for the 2020s

And finally, I appeal to everyone to see this also as an opportunity, despite the often harsh consequences of the crisis. The way in which our entrepreneurs, researchers and citizens are handling this crisis makes me optimistic for the 2020s because, in many areas, it brought out the best in us: a new feeling of community, a willingness to help others, a digitalisation thrust, greater flexibility and creativity. We are experiencing that change can often take place faster than imagined. The window is open: Germany and Europe have the opportunity to once again be a motor for innovation.