Five Keywords that Explain How China Succeeds at COVID-Control
Today, my family did our third COVID-19 swab test within a month at our neighbourhood in Panyu District.?This was part of the latest mass screening exercises initiated by the Guangzhou government despite zero new cases in nine days since June 19th.?It was a precaution that the majority of the population gladly obliged, simply because we know it is important.
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Earlier this week, Dr. Zhong Nanshan, the nation’s go-to communicable disease guru declared an important victory in a battle against a potential outbreak.?There have been three domestic clusters in Guangdong Province since May 21st.?The Shenzhen Yantian Port cluster first discovered on May 21st has not seen new cases since June 6th and has been declared to be fully under control.?The Shenzhen-Dongguan cluster, discovered on June 14th, has reported 7 confirmed cases and is still being closely monitored.?The highest profile, however, was the Guangzhou Liwan cluster which saw 167 reported cases from May 21st to June 19th.?Interestingly, this also represented a classic success case of how China managed to prevent a small outbreak from growing into a terrible disaster in just within a month.?The numbers could have been thousand-fold had the situation not been nipped in the bud.?
How did Guangzhou do that??
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Sceptics of China’s numbers may stop right here.?For those who are keen to find out more, I am going to share my two-cents gathered via first-hand experience from the city I live in.?The success formula can be dissected into five keywords – Science, Lockdown, Speed, Determination, and Unity.?Let’s look at how they sum up.
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Science
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The first step to solving a problem, is to identify the root of the problem.
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The first reported case started from a super spreader senior citizen later nicknamed “morning tea granny” who carried the much formidable Delta strain that had already caused havoc in more than 90 countries globally. ?Being asymptomatic, she had continued to enjoy traditional morning tea at local teahouses, and unknowingly spread the virus to several total strangers that she didn’t know of.
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One of the first things the CDC did was to conduct unprecedented genetic tests of the virus on every newly infected.?This allowed them to conclude that all new cases came from the “morning tea granny”.
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The COVID-19 Delta variant is apparently two times as contagious as the original Alpha strand.?A Delta-infected person can carry up to 100 times more viruses in the body than an Alpha-infected.?Incubation is 1-3 days, compared with 5-7 days of the original strand. ?Swab tests on the Delta strand can produce negative results for 13-15 days, some even up to 20 days, compared with 7-9 days stealth period of the original strand. ?This immediately called for a redefinition of “close contact - from the usual “family and friends within one metre in the past two days”, to “anybody within the same space, office or building in the past four days”.
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The virus was also found to have spread to five layers in ten days, marking a transmission index of 4.04 to 5.0.?This meant that one person can easily transmit to 4, then to 16, then to 64, … An extrapolation model showed that Guangzhou could see 7.3 million infected by July if numbers were allowed to multiply.?The need for a well-thought plan was begging.
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Lockdown
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Ironically, the most straightforward and effective solution to curbing a spread has proven to be lockdown.
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Contrary to many countries whereby lockdowns are implemented as a last resort, Guangzhou decided to lock down a neighbourhood as soon as one resident was found to be infected.?The neighbourhood would then be labelled “high risk”.?Certain property on the same street were also locked down and labelled “mid risk”. ??Residents in locked down areas were not allowed to leave the premises.?All shops in locked down districts were closed while the town council arranged sale of groceries and life necessities directly to the property.
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By May 31st, any person who wants to leave Guangzhou or Foshan must present a negative swab test result in the past 72 hours.?Two days later, that requirement became 48. ?The aim was to stop the virus froing going anywhere and pave the way for a massive city-wide COVID-19 screening exercise.
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Guangzhou started implementing a “Suikang” health code system since the early days of the COVID-19 in 2020.?“Suikang” is a mini program on Wechat that issues a personal QR code to every Guangzhou resident or visitor.?Upon the user’s permission, Suikang collects and displays one’s health status and itinerary over the past 14 days.?The “Suikang” will display a green QR code on one’s phone if the person is “healthy”, and yellow if they are potentially exposed to the COVID-19 or have been to high-risk areas.
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The next thing to do after containing movement, was to find out “who else are infected”, in the shortest possible time.
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Speed
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By now the city is on a race against time!??Every plan must be executed with lightning speed.
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The city started by giving anybody whose Suikang-code turned from green to yellow a swab test within 24 hours of the code changing colour. ?This will be followed by a second test by the third day, and a third test by the seventh. ?This applied to every resident in locked-down neighbourhoods and there was no time to lose.?At times they would wake everybody up in the wee hours to test as many as 25,000 residents in a property overnight.
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Soon after, the city decided to expanded mass screening to all districts, including ours.?My family did our first swab test on June 1st.?A nearby kitchenware wholesale market was used as the temporary screening centre. ?We received a QR code from our management office to register for the test in advance. ?Upon arrival, we were divided into groups by volunteers before being guided to one of the 30 test stations manned by about a hundred health workers.??The rest was to show our Suikang code at the sampling station and say “Ahh…”.?The entire procedure took only eleven minutes, from joining the queue to having our samples collected.?It was a breeze, and it was free.
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For the period of ten days from May 26th to June 5th, Guangzhou conducted a total of 16M swab tests.?It then went on to set joint records together with other Guangdong cities as the province saw 18M swab tests done within one single day, on June 22nd.?Since May 10th, Guangdong province has conducted a total of 210 million swab tests, 60% more than its total population.?This remarkable feat proved to be super important as it unsurfaced 53 asymptomatic cases - 31% of the total 167 reported.?The strict and speedy measures ensured that these people did not get the chance to roam around the city, shop, dine, even travel, and pass the virus to hundred others for days before they needed to seek treatment.?The virus never made it out of Guangdong.?It is scary to imagine what would have happened otherwise.
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The mini outbreak also pushed Guangdong to expedite its vaccination plans.?As of June 20th, Guangdong has completed 100 million doses of vaccines.?At least 66.7 million have had a shot, while 35.7 million completed their second.?What’s most impressive was that they only took four days to complete the seventh and eighth 10 million doses, and five days for the ninth and tenth 10 million.?That’s an average of 2-2.5 million doses per day.
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Determination
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For every mini outbreak since the COVID-19 started, China had turned on the “battle mode”.?It was no exception for Guangzhou.?The city government was not going to take any chances and was determined to nip the situation in the bud.
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Guangzhou was bugged by torrential rains during the first few days of mass screening.?However, this did not dampen the spirit of the CDC team, as hundreds of health workers worked under heavy downpour from morning till night to accomplish the sacred task of swab-testing the first batches of yellow-coded residents within 24 hours.?It was a sight not to forget.
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COVID-19 had proven to be transmissible to pets.?Vowing to leave no stone unturned, Guangzhou CDC did nucleic tests on 70 street rats which showed negative results.?Swab tests on pets are still ongoing and are expected to be completed by end of July.
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Unity
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It is important to note that all the well-thought plan and hard work would not have produced the same level of success without support from the public.
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When news of the “morning tea granny” was first reported, people expected that it was going to take drastic measures to tackle the problem.?Residents, schools and businesses were quick to oblige when lockdowns were implemented.?There was inevitably anxiety, but no panic.
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My son’s kindergarten lies in the same district as a locked down property and had to suspend classes for three weeks.?After school activities, graduation concerts, and school tours were cancelled.?Some final year students even had to take their “gaokao” (final year exams) in quarantined facilities.?There was frustration, but no complaints.
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You’d be wrong to think that the authoritarian government had been forceful with the strict measures.?The tens-of-millions of people who participated in the mass screenings mostly did it because they felt it was the right thing to do.?We received calls to participate in the mass screenings and did it the same day without hesitation.?Nobody put a gun to our head. ?Property management took the initiative to sterilize common areas a few times every day.?There was a sticker inside our building elevator that says, “Please wear your mask when taking the elevator”, and you can see everybody followed.?There was inconvenience, but no questions asked.
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It was amazing to see the unity among the people, as if there was an unwritten understanding between the public and the government.?There is this trust among the Chinese, that government knows what it is doing.?And this trust comes from China’s outstanding track record in fighting the pandemic.
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“All you need to do is to follow instructions and you will be fine.”?People KNOW that any inconvenience is only temporary and very much necessary if they want to “get their life back”.?Again, this was proven to be true.?My son’s kindergarten resumed lessons last week, and restaurants are starting to accept diners again.?We are proud to have contributed to the quick recovery of the city’s hustle.?No wonder Dr. Zhong Nanshan celebrated victory against the potential Guangzhou outbreak on national TV.?To call it a success is an understatement.?It should be written into a textbook for others to follow.
Written by:?Jong-Mun Goh
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Investor/Wealth Management and Private Banking investment products expert in China - Self Employed
3 年I had 5 covid tests within a month. Restaurants and many public places in affected districts shut within the first 5 days of reporting the first local infection. Thats called effective management
Senior Manager | Regulatory Affairs | Pharmaceuticals, Medical Device, Chemicals, Animal Feed | Advocacy | Regional Projects | Stakeholders Collaboration | Regulatory Compliance |
3 年Excellent & well articulated write-up Jong Mun Goh !
Application Developer (Full-stack) @ DBS Bank | Owner SG Cars Trends
3 年This is a great write up on how China or at least Guangzhou controlled the outbreak and not let it spiral out of control. As mentioned in the article, Dr Zhong Nanshan actually simulated that as many as 7.3 million could be infected but only to have sub 150s of confirmed cases. You could have probably missed this out but I think the following are also good strategies and use of technology to fight the outbreak. Robotaxis, basically taxi with no drivers, were seen ferrying people to and fro testing sites. This reduced so much unnecessary close contact between the driver and other passengers. Also, Guangzhou made use of drone technology. It delivered the test samples to a nearby laboratory at the fastest route possible; everything contactless. This showed that China already has a plan for any outbreaks and is setting the gold standard for the world to follow.