First take on local elections 2023: cautious optimism for Labour but will it have a Westminster majority?

This year’s local elections are important. They are the last chance for the public to vote before a General Election which could bring the first new government in over a decade. This morning Labour is talking about being a government in waiting as the Conservatives face losses in key battlegrounds, despite setting very limited expectations. However, voting experts looking at the early results are that saying if a General Election was held today Labour is likely to be the biggest party in Westminster, but they are uncertain if it will secure a majority.

Predictions of a Labour administration come 2024 are not new. They follow long poll leads since the ill-fated Liz Truss regime. Control of councils is important but anyone reading the tea leaves ahead of a General Election needs to consider the share of national vote for each party and we don’t yet have those numbers yet. They will help answer whether Labour has the momentum it needs to reach No.10 and set the political weather: have events such as recent government personnel issues had an impact on the doorstep? It looks like the Sue Gray issue is still a Westminster village story and not cutting through. It is also unclear whether the Liberal Democrat local vote will stand up in a General Election as they historically over perform in local races.

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Battleground results

Roughly a quarter of seats were counted overnight so this morning’s results are not the full picture. The Conservatives were defending the largest number of council seats last night despite heavy losses in the same election during 2019. They were starting from a low base, trailed Labour by 18 points in some polls and were heavily managing expectations. Any stemming of the tide will be seen as positive.

The Conservatives have taken notable losses across the country in ‘red wall’ areas such as Stoke and traditional southern heartlands under threat from Lib Dems. Maidenhead, home to former Prime Minister Theresa May, has gone to Ed Davey’s party and the Tories have relinquished overall control of heartlands in Hertfordshire, Gloucestershire and Lincolnshire. Labour spokespeople have been suggesting this is the best set of results for years with wins in key marginals such as Medway and Plymouth, also winning back voters in those ‘red wall’ areas which switched to Boris Johnson in 2019. But does it have the momentum it needs? It looks as if Tories have lost votes as much as Labour has gained them and so there is still work to be done for Team Keir to articulate a pro-Labour vision.

A word of caution. As Anthony Browne from YouGov told a breakfast briefing DGA hosted last week, local elections shouldn’t be a specific guide to a general election result. But they can show the direction of travel. Pollsters will produce a predicted general election result later based on national vote share which is what we really need to look out for. This morning’s results suggest the Conservatives will have a torrid set of results, but the gains may be more evenly divided between Labour and the Lib Dems than Sir Keir Starmer might hope for when he faces off with Rishi Sunak. Time will tell as we wait for results in battleground seats to come in across the day and into the evening.