First January bi-weekly brief: Lockstep in 2024 with Andrej Lasi?

"Our region needs to look for connecting points, as its economies are highly complementary"

Read a few excerpts from our interview with Andrej Lasi?, member of the management board of NLB, who is responsible for corporate and investment banking. The complete interview is available in our annual publication The Adriatic: Strategic Foresight 2024. Email us at the address in our bio for a copy!

Weekend wisdoms

To kick off the New Year's weekend traditions section, we had a quick chat last week with Zmago Novak , the founder of BIG SEE - opening perspectives whose mission is to connect the?Adriatic region's creative and economic potential to tackle global challenges effectively. He is a driving force behind well known projects like the City of Design, Month of Design, Big Architecture, Wood Icon, and Creative Tourism. And he likes to play it by ear.?

Where will we find you this weekend?

In the Dolenjska region, at a post-New Year's lunch with the family - I will be gauging its growth, welcoming new members, and observing the happiness that makes perseverance easier.

Sunday mornings: slow or zippy?

They can be a dynamic surprise, a?quiet reflection, or just chess.

Weekend breakfast?

Hard-boiled eggs, roasted almonds, cheese, and peppers.

Books or news?

I like?reading?Sapiens and Sophie's World for better understanding and a healthy balance. I also follow the news, but I flip between various sources, it's not structured.

What's on the speakers?

I most often listen to Radio Meuh, but sometimes it's?Billie Eilish, Coldplay, and Lara Fabian for pre-concert warm up.

Lunch in or out?

Food made at home is the best, but a restaurant is good, too, if it serves local homemade dishes.

Whiskey or wine?

I love the white wine Debroi Harslevelu from Hungary and the?red wine?Dissan Barrique from North?Macedonia. ?

Sunday lunch topics?

This weekend we will definitely be talking about my mom's new haircut – she is very proud of it! Otherwise, it's anything to do with joys of life.

Any weekend traditions?

We like to?play it by ear and see how we feel.? ?

Cultural event you attended recently?

I recently attended a theater play The Diary of a Woman based on the book Is Winter in Summer's Lap (Je zima v krilu poletja) by Franjo Fran?i?.

Top interior design trend in 2024?

Biointelligence – the balance between nature and technology. Bio represents our innate connection to nature, urging us to lead a more relaxed, traditional way of living. Intelligence reflects our human nature, constantly driving us to explore and innovate. As individuals, we are perpetually oscillating between these two forces.?

Regional snapshot

Balancing woes amidst victory

Serbia entered the new year with an election crisis, as the Serbia Against Violence (SPN) coalition continued its streak of protests against the government following what was labelled as a largely unfair election contest. The ruling Serbian Progressive Party's (SNS) had an advantage in resources, media dominance and is alleged to have participated in vote buying and voter intimidation. In Belgrade, the SNS is suspected of having bussed in voters, who had only recently been registered on the city's electoral roll.

According to Al Jazeera, the SPN is considering boycotting the results in the Belgrade Assembly, with more muted demands for annulment on a national level. They are also demanding the release of all the protestors arrested on December 24 - a protest that culminated in an attempt to storm the parliament and which, the SPN claims, was aggravated by pro-government elements.

The SNS, adept at leveraging the incumbency advantage in elections, may have influenced the Belgrade vote through alleged voter bussing, though their impact on the overall electoral outcome remains questionable.

Taking into account claims of voter fraud, government formation is likely to be slow, despite the SNS's strong performance. Following the elections in 2022, it took nearly 7 months to form a government. President Vu?i? is likely to try and prolong the process even further in order to avoid making concessions in negotiations with Kosovo, playing for time in the hopes that a surge in far-right representation in the upcoming European elections and a potential Trump victory in the US presidential election will bolster his position.

The elections have proved a double-edged sword for Vu?i?. They demonstrate that, despite accepting the Brussels/Ohrid Agreement - a major step towards de facto recognition of Kosovo-, the SNS can maintain and even increase its electoral support. Therefore, pressure from the EU and the US towards normalization in 2024 may well increase.

Government re-juggle

North Macedonia has reached a significant juncture with the scheduling of the presidential and parliamentary elections for May 8, following consultations between Prime Minister Kova?evski and various party leaders. The past few months have seen a marked decline in the popularity of the ruling Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), which now finds itself lagging behind the opposition Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), due to trying to push through unpopular amendments that would see the country's miniscule Bulgarian minority added to the constitution - among others. The constitutional changes are essential for lifting Bulgaria's opposition against North Macedonia's accession to the European Union.

The SDSM faces some difficult choices ahead of the elections. One of the key strategic considerations involves the potential formation of a pre-electoral coalition, primarily with certain ethnic Albanian parties, brought together by their aligned positions on amending the constitution. The government has thus far been unable to cobble up the remaining 7 votes in order to meet the 2/3rds majority threshold necessary to vote through the changes. It is unlikely to make any significant headway prior to the elections or in their immediate aftermath, given the high likelihood of a deadlock in government formation.

VMRO-DPMNE, led by Hristijan Mickoski, has gained ground, benefiting from the public's dissatisfaction with the current government. However, Mickoski's reluctance to support the constitutional amendments, despite his party's stated commitment to EU integration, may limit its ability to form a broad coalition, particularly with ethnic Albanian parties crucial in North Macedonia's diverse society.

As the electoral timeline narrows, current projections suggest that VMRO-DPMNE is poised to maintain its lead over the SDSM. The prospect of a pre-electoral alliance could be advantageous for the SDSM, although its effectiveness will largely depend on the specific composition and dynamics of the coalition. Prime Minister Kova?evski?announced that, as of January 28, a technical government will be formed. This marks a significant milestone in North Macedonia's history, as the nation prepares to appoint a Prime Minister from the Albanian minority. However, it carries with it electoral risks for the SDSM, whose voters are primarily ethnic Macedonians.

Business laments laissez-faire

The visa agreement between Kosovo and the EU came into force at the start of this year. Much vaunted by the EU, to the point it was even?under threat of being suspended, the visa liberalisation regime become the subject of antipathy by the country's business community. Speaking with KosovaPress,?several businessmen warned of upcoming labour shortages and the government's failure to styme the flow of young people leaving the country.

The new visa regime is intended for tourism and personal travel and does not include permission to work. During the past few months, the government in Pristina has been conducting a public awareness campaign urging people not to misuse the freedom of travel by looking for jobs in the EU.

Kosovo, the last amongst the six Western Balkan countries to obtain the visa waiver, viewed it as an essential milestone in its quest for EU membership. However, the agreement is not without its detractors, as bussineses express anxiety - potentially exaggerated - about a massive departure of young Kosovars, who have become disillusioned by local opportunities.

Croatia leverages EU funds

Despite ongoing economic challenges faced by Germany, Europe's largest economy and a key player in Croatia's economy, current forecasts for the eurozone as a whole remain cautiously optimistic. According to a report by Bloomberg Adria, a recession or a significant economic downturn is not anticipated in the near term.

Analysts anticipate that investments, bolstered by European Union funding, will continue to be the primary catalysts for economic growth. In 2024, Croatia is set to embark on several significant public works, financed in part by funds from the European Union under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. A substantial portion of this funding, amounting to €2.3 billion, is earmarked for energy projects. This includes both the refurbishment of existing energy infrastructure and new investments in renewable energy sources. Moreover, the government plans extensive road works, including completing the final Croatian segment of the Vc pan-European corridor, a major route linking Budapest with the Croatian town of Ploce. In addition, a €15 million modernization project is planned for Zadar International Airport, and a new cargo terminal is slated for construction at the port of Split.

?

The Regional Snapshot is prepared by Andra? Tav?ar.

Regional events roundup

New year, new?events. The year 2024?means business, having?started on a Monday.?To get you going, we've compiled a selection of?events in?the next couple of months that?will be worth your time.

Cinema ?i?ka – Bu? Kesidi

To work hard,?you have to play hard first. This year, our top pick for the 'it-event'?is the Bu? Kesidi concert in Kino ?i?ka, Ljubljana.?A?dance-infused rock 'n' roll duo from Serbia, we've been throwing back our hair to their beats for years. Their last performance in Ljubljana was in 2019, and since then they've become known for putting on?the most exciting?performances in the region. If you're a fan?of?Joker Out, Svemirko or Artan Lili,?their dreamy, hypnotic arpeggio laden beats will rock you into a trance. The concert takes place on February 17 with tickets still available.

Cankar hall – Gray on Gray – Lecture Series by Leading Philosophers

Starting on January 9 and running until February 29 Cankarjev dom, Cultural and Congress Centre Ljubljana will play host to an intellectual commune of some of Slovenia's most vibrant thinkers - despite the title. Heavy-weights and fan favourites will take the stage to engage in rhetoric, debate and crystalise concepts thus far confined to the lecture halls of the Faculty of Arts. One in particular that garnered this young writer's interest was 'Hollywood, Indirectness and Ted Lasso' by Dr Jela Kre?i?. One of Slovenia's most successful pop-culture exports will also take the fore: Dr Slavoj ?i?ek, asking whether Hegel can be surpassed by Heidegger?

The series was put on by Dr Kre?i? as part of an exhibition of book covers from the Analecta publishing house, created by Alen O?bolt, titled "Silver Windows" (Srebrna okna) on display in the First Foyer. The exhibition?opens?from Friday, January 5, 2024.

Belgrade fair

If you have a green thumb, a passion for fashion, or love travelling,?then the Belgrade Fair is the place to be.?One of the largest?in the region,?it's on from January until November.?The fair will be opened by?Agro Belgrade,?bringing together?companies and co-ops?growing?fruits, vegetables and wine.?For fear of becoming too Dyonisian, there's a plethora of events scheduled throughout the year that are sure to spark a passion for whatever's on display - don't worry though, we've narrowed it down to our favourite few:

March 5 - 7, Balkan Fashion 2024: In light of the recent free trade agreement between Turkey and Serbia, the two countries have abolished customs duties on textile exports, heralding a transformative era for 'Balkan Chic'. Set to invigorate the fashion scene, it promises an eclectic showcase of traditional craftsmanship with contemporary design.

April 4 - 8, Nautika: Catching a whiff of that cool spring breeze, whether it be on land or sea, Nautika will boast a wide array of hunting and fishing equipment alongside vessels for sport and pleasure. In addition to the popular second-hand vessel marketplace, the event annually spotlights Serbia's renowned regattas, thrilling rafting adventures, and diverse aquatic activities.

October 19 - 27, Belgrade Book Fair: Живеле к?иге! The region's premier literary event, the Belgrade Book Fair stands out not only for its vast body of work but also for its enriching side event program. This comprehensive agenda includes a multitude of book promotions, engaging presentations, insightful lectures, round table conferences, and dynamic public discussions.

MoStart 2024

Without minds inundated by good tunes, wine and philosophical rigour, it's time to wrap off with a detox cocktail of business and the future ahead. MoStart, the International Conference focusing on digitalization in education and the application of AI methods, is set to take place in Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, running from 24 to 26 of April.

At the heart of the conference is an educational initiative designed to foster continuous learning and skill enhancement among all participants involved in the educational process. This year's focus is on the integration and application of assistive technologies in education, encompassing speech technologies, virtual assistants, and their role in clinical practice and rehabilitation.

Adding a dynamic networking dimension, the event promises to be a congregation point for programmers, engineers, and tech aficionados from across the region.