First Friday - July 2024

What I'm Reading

Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner

This book explores the "how" behind making accurate predictions. Through research and engaging case studies, the book examines why some people are exceptionally good at forecasting and how their methods can be applied more broadly.

Key Takeaways:

• Cultivate Humility: The book emphasizes the importance of intellectual humility—acknowledging the limits of one’s knowledge and being open to new information and perspectives. Superforecasters are always willing to revise their views when presented with new evidence.
• Break Problems into Parts: The authors recommend breaking down complex problems into simpler, more manageable components. This approach allows for more precise and accurate predictions.
• Gather Diverse Perspectives: Effective forecasting involves considering a wide range of sources and viewpoints. Superforecasters actively seek out and integrate diverse information to refine their predictions.
• Engage in Continuous Learning: Continuous improvement is central to superforecasting. The best forecasters constantly update their knowledge and skills, learning from both successes and failures.
• Embrace Accountability: Superforecasters track their predictions and outcomes meticulously. This practice of accountability helps them understand their forecasting accuracy and areas needing improvement.

A book like this is interesting because I think it's more important than ever to think about trends and "where the puck is going," especially with the rapid development of technology and AI. Understanding how to make better predictions can give us a significant edge in navigating these fast-paced changes.

Be the non-complainer - Snippet from Chamath P.

Great advice, especially for those starting their career in the business world. This was my goal when starting my career as well. You want to be the non-complainer. Combine that with being reliable and doing what you say you will do, and that is a great combination to move up quickly and gain additional responsibility. By being the non-complainer, you set yourself apart as someone who is proactive and resilient. This mindset not only helps you build a strong reputation but also makes you a valuable team member. When you consistently deliver on your promises and show that you can be relied upon, you build trust with your colleagues. This trust is crucial for career advancement as it demonstrates your capability to handle more significant responsibilities and challenges.

Concept I’ve been studying

You can’t realize it’s the wrong mountain to climb without climbing it

This concept emphasizes the importance of taking risks and learning through experience. As leaders, it's crucial to encourage our teams to take risks, try new things, and branch out. In my own career, I've found that some of the most valuable lessons come from the challenges and setbacks encountered along the way.

I push our leaders and teams to take risks and explore new opportunities. As companies grow, the tendency to avoid risk often increases. However, it is through taking these risks that innovation occurs. Encourage your teams to climb mountains, even if they turn out to be the wrong ones. The experience gained and the lessons learned are invaluable.

At the end of the year, I plan to count the number of failures -- if there are none, we aren't taking enough risks. This approach ensures that we are always pushing the boundaries.

Best podcast of the last 30 days

HIBT - Twitter, Medium and Blogger: Ev Williams

As co-founder of Twitter and founder of Blogger and Medium, Evan Williams was a Nebraska farm boy who dropped out of college. Ev faced several business failures before starting Blogger. After selling Blogger, he launched Twitter with Jack Dorsey and others. Ev learned that he understood product better than people, a trait that contributed to his eventual firing as Twitter CEO. After that crushing blow, he started Medium, a blogging site for posts that are neither too short nor too long.

Why I Liked It:

• Ultimate Humility: One of the most successful entrepreneurs of all time admits on the podcast that he's not a great people manager. This level of self-awareness is rare and incredibly valuable.
• Zero Ego: Despite his massive successes, Ev remains grounded and open about his shortcomings, showing a level of humility that is both inspiring and instructive.
• Intelligent Insights: Ev's deep understanding of products and technology, coupled with his candid reflections on his journey, offers intelligent and practical insights for anyone interested in technology and innovation.

My personal growth

How I’ve failed…

Separate external vs. what you can control

I like this snippet from the book “Focus on What Matters”: distinguishing between externals and what you can control. It’s such an important concept that I've struggled with in the past, often blending the two. But it's crucial to separate them—especially when you are successful with something—to determine whether it was due to external factors or your own actions.

I've worked with people who blame external factors for things they can control. Conversely, I've also worked with people who blame themselves even when the outcome is beyond their control.

Something I’m working to do better, personally and professionally, is separating the two. Understanding this distinction helps in accurately assessing situations and improving decision-making.

Personal Development Priority

Quickly Adjusting to Living in Europe

With my family and three kids, aged 4, 6, and 7, we moved to London for the summer so I can work out of our London office. It's not the easiest thing to get young children into a brand-new routine in a different country, but we are doing our best. We're working to quickly get ingrained and structured in our new environment. We've had a blast so far, and it’s been phenomenal to work daily with our EMEA team.

Closing culture thought

Everyone makes plays

Regardless of role, title, or level at Clearsulting, everyone has the potential to make big plays at any time. This belief is central to our culture and a key driver of our success.

Similar to the "concepts I've been studying" section, I urge everyone to step out of bounds every once in a while and take risks. Innovation often comes from unexpected places, and it’s the willingness to venture beyond the usual that leads to breakthroughs.

Some basics I'll remind everyone of:

Raise Your Hand: If you have an idea, share it. No idea is too small, and every suggestion contributes to our collective growth.

Take Initiative: Don’t wait for permission to innovate. If you see an opportunity to improve something, take the lead. Show initiative and be proactive in driving change.

Embrace Failure as Learning: Taking risks means that sometimes things won’t go as planned. That’s okay. Each failure is an opportunity to learn and grow.

Our future achievements will come from collaboration and the collective efforts of our entire team. I'm looking forward to working with you all to continue to push boundaries, challenge the status quo, and strive for excellence together.