First al-Assad, Now Maduro

In just one week, a 50-year dictatorship has fallen, and its repercussions are already being felt around the world—or perhaps, they have already begun to be felt. The escape of Bashar al-Assad from Syria and the collapse of this tyranny leave many lessons that until now had gone unlearned, but which many will now finally grasp. The implications of this event should have three Latin American dictators very worried—if not panicked—since the foundation upon which their dictatorships were built has been severely weakened.

Nicolás Maduro and his mafia government in Venezuela, Daniel Ortega and his wife in Nicaragua, and Miguel Díaz-Canel and the Castro kleptocracy in Cuba must now be reassessing their options after the sudden disappearance of Russian and Iranian support for Syria, following decades of joint efforts to keep the Assad family in power.

The truth is that today, Russia, like the emperor in Hans Christian Andersen's "The Emperor's New Clothes," stands exposed. With its abandonment of Assad, two things became clear: first, the fragility of Russia’s support for its allies, and second, the ease with which it casts aside its supposed friends, even after 50 years of close political, ideological, economic, and military relations. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who once celebrated the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan just over three years ago and claimed that Russia would never do the same with its allies, now understands the limits of his country’s power. The lesson Putin leaves for the world is clear: we are not trustworthy.

Assad and Syria were not just any allies. His father, Hafez al-Assad, also a dictator, was a staunch partner in the ideological battle against capitalism during the Cold War, and when the Berlin Wall fell, this alliance remained in place as a counter to Israel and the West. With an airbase and a military port in Syria, the country exemplified how Russia—and previously the Soviet Union—exercised geopolitical power. Today, that influence is dissipating, and this event is already being dubbed "Putin's Saigon," likening it to the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam.

Iran’s position is similar. Another emperor left without clothes, as its regional power—and, in a way, its global influence through Hezbollah—vanished in an instant, exposing the fragility of another dictatorship in its support of its proxies and allies. Iran, a nation once feared by even the most powerful countries in the Middle East, used Syria as a weapons transit point for Hezbollah and as a sanctuary for fighters and leaders. Now, it has abandoned its partner, revealing itself to be an opportunistic regime that exploits the countries it operates in, and when faced with any threat, retreats without hesitation.

So why should the dictators of Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua be concerned? The main reason is that Russia is the primary supporter of these regimes. Cuba cannot survive without Russian backing, and Nicaragua and Venezuela are even more dependent. Russia’s intelligence and repression capabilities are crucial for maintaining the control these regimes need to stay in power. On the other hand, Iran has deployed its limited military and political resources to support these dictatorships. It’s no coincidence that the Iranian president recently visited the region, including these countries. Iran’s true strength lies in its ability to deploy Hezbollah across the region, which has made Venezuela its epicenter of criminal operations, but also engages in drug trafficking, money laundering, and illegal gold mining throughout the continent.

All three dictatorships have minimal domestic support, much like al-Assad in Syria. These regimes remain in power thanks to the brutal repression they impose on any citizen who questions them. Russia, Iran, and China also provide international support, regardless of the human rights violations, corruption, or humanitarian crises they perpetuate. These countries hide behind the rhetoric of the "Global South" or "non-interference" to justify their backing of these bloody regimes, which once felt secure under this protection that has now evaporated in an instant.

Furthermore, in a podcast recorded recently, one of the closest advisors to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, stated that a condition for negotiations on Ukraine would be Russia's withdrawal from Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. The dictators have been warned, and in the case of Maduro and his mafia, they must negotiate by January 10 or face a fate similar to that of Assad—some in exile, others dead.

This new international landscape, filled with hope (but not without risks), owes much to two key actors whom the world's democrats should thank: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the people of Israel, who, through their attacks on Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, weakened them to the point that they could not come to Assad's defense in Syria. We also owe thanks to Volodymyr Zelensky and the people of Ukraine, whose role in the brutal military wear-and-tear on Russia—losing nearly 600,000 citizens in the invasion—prevented Syria from falling into Putin’s hands and kept Russia from defending Assad, as it did in 2015.

There is a sense of fresh air, which, with the return of Trump to power, could be capitalized on, cementing his legacy with the return of democracy to countries currently under the control of dictators, criminals, and even terrorists. We must call them by their true names and not be mistaken about who they are.

Let’s hope for the best, but the reality is clear: for Maduro, Ortega, and the Castros, with Díaz-Canel as their puppet, their time is running out. It was about time.

[1] The Emperor's New Clothes (Hans Christian Andersen)

[2] Podcast Link (Minute 120 for the section on Ukraine, Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua)