FIRE AND FORGET. ANALYSIS OF THE COMMUNICATION STRATEGY OF THE GOVERNMENT OF PRIME MINISTER MELONI.

by Paolo Corti

The Italian Government can be criticised for many things, but failing to communicate with its electoral base is not one of them. The latest survey conducted by SWG for the LA7 news programme shows that if voted on 11 December 2023, Fratelli d'Italia, the party led by Prime Minister Meloni, would obtain 28.2% of the preferences, registering a 2.3% increase compared to the September 2022 elections. The centre-right coalition, consisting of Fratelli d'Italia, Forza Italia, and Lega, would obtain 44.8% of the preferences, which is a 0.8% increase compared to the elections a year ago. The figures demonstrate two things: the government coalition has maintained the support of its electorate, and the Prime Minister's party has even increased its potential support. Given the Meloni government's lack of progress in fulfilling its election promises, these results may be difficult to understand. After performing a simple fact-check on the government's performance and comparing it with the framework agreement signed by the pre-election majority parties, it is evident that there has been a clear failure across the board. The centre-right's election programme had several pivotal and identifying proposals, but unfortunately, they have either been disregarded, not addressed, or have even exacerbated the problems they were meant to solve. For instance, illegal immigration is a case in point. The Meloni government's political failures have affected all sectors, including economic policy (such as reducing excise duties on fuels and taxes), social policy (such as cancelling the Fornero law and supporting families and birth rates), and changes in the balance of power with the European Community (as stated by Meloni herself 'The fun is over'). In the light of the above, one might ask how the current government can still maintain its high approval ratings and electoral support. The answer is simple: the executive communicates effectively, convincing its electorate of its (non)performance. In short, the government has a strong communication strategy. The strategy used by the Meloni Government to communicate can be simplified as follows. I called it the “fire and forget” strategy because it is similar to the operation of war weapons such as the Javelin: the operator frames the target, fires, and then the weapon itself reaches the target, giving the operator time to get to safety. In the same way, the government creates news messages and exploits media space to let public debate spread and develop on its own. PM Meloni or the government only make the announcement of the initiative, without disseminating the details of the law or project, which always will come "at a later date". The message reaches its target audience independently through media debates, both for and against. The government only shares a headline message, creating a 'safe distance' from the event. It is irrelevant whether a project or a law is functional, feasible or even just possible. This lack of discussion between the media and the government allows for this approach. Here are a few examples: the tax on banks' extra profits, the agreement with Algeria to combat illegal immigration, the rehabilitation of Caivano (a suburb of Naples), the compensation for the floods in Emilia Romagna, the Italian citizenship for Indi Gregory, the pact with Albania to set up reception centres for illegal immigrants.

Target The Meloni government's communication strategy and actions target only its own voters and, to a lesser extent, undecideds. Fratelli d'Italia is aware that its current percentage of potential voters is more than enough to be confirmed as a party with a relative majority also in the next European elections. At the same time, the aim of PM Meloni is to take shares of the voters of the parties in her coalition, namely from Forza Italia and the Lega. Convincing the voters of the PD or the M5S (left parties) would be a waste of time due to the polarisation of political issues in Italy: electoral flows usually take place within the same political-cultural environment. This strategy only takes into account half of the electorate because it does not include abstentions: the lower the turnout, the fewer people there are to persuade.

Profile of the target audience The average Italian voter, both conservative and progressive, has a limited and unvarying media diet: he usually gets his information from one source, usually TV news, and only uses media that match his political views. He is seeking confirmation that his vote is valid and that the opposition is wicked. Additionally, 90% of Italian mainstream television (RAI and Mediaset) is directly or indirectly controlled by the government, giving the Meloni executive a significant advantage over the opposition. This advantage is compounded by the voters' lack of knowledge about the functioning of the institutions, particularly legislative power. For most Italian voters, a proposal or bill is seen as a legislative act. When the government proposes a bill on a sensitive issue, often in response to a popular news story, voters perceive this declaration as equivalent to a legislative act, even though they are not aware of how it will be written (and therefore applied), whether it will be amended and above all whether it will be transformed into a regulatory act. The mere announcement of a bill is perceived by the public as a sign of Government efficiency.

Objectives The Meloni government's communication strategy aims to control the media agenda by selecting the topics to discuss. This allows the government to direct the media debate and public attention, while also avoiding issues that do not concern it. However, this strategy may divert attention from the government's shortcomings and problems that it cannot solve. Technically speaking, this is done by exploiting the exclusivity of agenda-setting. In political discussions, only one topic can be discussed at a time. Therefore, whoever sets the agenda decides what the media will discuss and what they will not. If you issue a financial statement that follows Draghi's policy and is framed within the guidelines of the European Union, it may be difficult for your electorate to understand and could be used as a reason to attack your opponents. In this case, it would be better to shift the public debate to other topics, such as the Prime Minister's personal life. By focusing on the alleged 'opposition' of the judiciary to adapting the immigration rules created by the government itself, you will avoid having to justify the exponential increase in illegal immigration, which is a sensitive issue for the electorate. It is proposed to solve the problem by setting up reception centres in Albania, but this approach only gives the impression of shifting the problem outside the country's borders without actually solving it, and is not a viable solution from a cost-benefit perspective. When discussing the M.E.S. debate, it is more effective to construct a targeted argument against an influencer (Chiara Ferragni) with millions of followers. This distraction tactic is effective because projects, polemics, and bills that deal with divisive and popular issues are highly attractive to the media industry. The media needs 'emotions' to generate advertising revenue and survive. Fact-checking is typically left to specialists rather than ordinary people, regardless of whether the proposal is viable or the controversy is futile. The goal is not to draw attention to critical issues. The public may forget about the issue after a few days, as another topic of discussion may arise.

Timing In order to be effective in the medium term, the timing of the launch of the message is crucial. It is necessary to constantly occupy the media agenda with contemporary topics, preferably related to news events, divisive issues, celebrities or popular topics. This way, even those who are less educated or politically enthusiastic can be engaged. Anything goes: prank calls, controversies with influencers, imaginary conspiracies, laws against ravers. This strategy is effective because it is built around the functioning of mass media and is perfectly adapted to the socio-cultural structure of the target audience. Nowadays, both new and old media are heavily reliant on advertising revenues. Shares, views, or clicks are crucial for these companies. Sensationalism is essential to hook users through emotions, given the quantity and speed of information they receive daily. News is built around the event's headline, which must be simple yet impressive to emotionally involve the viewer. In-depth analysis is not possible, and as a result, everything turns into bar talk. After the event loses its newsworthiness, it will be forgotten, and the cycle will repeat. Ultimately, only the government's distilled message will remain in public opinion.

The figure of the enemy and the revenge of the victim In political communication, the 'enemy' could be considered an archetype. Whether real or imaginary, this figure is created at the table and serves multiple functions. It unites the group against a common foe and simplifies reality in a Manichean way: we are good, they are evil, we work for the good of all, they do not allow us to. This dialectic is functional in a society that has "no time" and no knowledge of reality, and therefore needs simple solutions to complex problems. In the Melonian narrative, in addition to the "enemy", the figure of the Prime Minister as "victim" is omnipresent: this figure is fundamental because it fulfils a double function. Firstly, it allows voters to identify with the leader, as everyone has experienced victimisation at some point. Secondly, culturally, the victim is seen as a "good guy" who is oppressed by an evil entity, that for Prime Minister Meloni are: big powers, the judiciary, journalists, Europe, or bureaucrats. Through her act of revenge, she transforms from victim to victor. This cathartic figure brings hope and emotion, making it easier to connect with the Prime Minister. It humanises her and makes her popular, while also elevating her as primus inter pares.