Finnish Arctic Policy, Nordic Nations and Deep Seabed Mining, and Divergent Arctic Futures.

Dear readers,

Welcome to this week's edition of Arctic Highlights. The topics discussed today include:

• Finland's Arctic Policy
• Climate Change and the Arctic
• Deep-Sea Mining
• Futuristic Gas Carrier
• Arctic Fisheries
• Future of the Arctic

I hope you find topics interesting and informative!

Finland Needs a More Proactive Arctic Policy

In an op-ed published in Helsingin Sanomat , Timo Koivurova , the Chairman of the Finnish Arctic Society, has called for an emergency meeting to address Finland's diminishing influence in the Arctic.

Koivurova argues that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent suspension of the Arctic Council have left Finland's Arctic policy in a precarious position. Despite possessing significant Arctic expertise, Finland’s Arctic strategy, formulated pre-war, is now outdated.

The piece highlights growing international interest in the Arctic, with nations like China and India seeking a greater role in the region. Finland’s unique position, including its Indigenous Peoples' rights expertise and technological advancements, is not being fully leveraged.

The op-ed contends that Finland needs a more proactive Arctic policy to address challenges posed by climate change and geopolitical shifts. It calls for increased government funding and a more robust civil society involvement in shaping Finland's Arctic future.

In the same line are the arguments by Johanna Ik?valko , director of the Arctic Centre, University of Lapland , who has levelled harsh criticism at Finland's government for its perceived neglect of the Arctic. In an interview with Demokraatti, Ik?valko expressed deep disappointment with the government's failure to develop a new Arctic strategy.

Ik?valko argues that Finland's approach to the Arctic has become overly narrow, focusing primarily on security and economic opportunities at the expense of broader environmental and societal considerations. Ik?valko criticizes the Finnish government's decision to decentralize the coordination of Arctic policy from the Prime Minister's Office to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This shift has led to a less centralized and coordinated approach to Arctic issues. The concern is that Arctic policy may become less prioritized and less visible within the government. She coined the term "Arctic amputation" to describe this narrowing of focus, particularly in light of Finland's NATO membership.

Key concerns raised by Ik?valko include:

• the absence of a comprehensive Arctic strategy
• the underfunding of crucial Arctic research
• the decentralization of Arctic policy coordination
• marginalization of Indigenous perspectives

Overall, the authors stress that Finland's ability to effectively address the complex challenges facing the Arctic region, including climate change and geopolitical shifts may be at risk and call for a more balanced approach that considers the environmental, social, and economic dimensions of the Arctic.

A Looming Threat to the Global Climate

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, a renowned climate scientist, delivered a sobering presentation at the Arctic Circle Assembly. His presentation, which has garnered over 40,000 views on YouTube, highlights the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current that regulates global climate patterns.

This ocean current, often referred to as the "conveyor belt," plays a crucial role in regulating global climate patterns.

Rahmstorf explained that recent scientific research indicates a significant slowdown of the AMOC, driven by increased freshwater input from melting ice and changes in ocean salinity. A complete collapse of the AMOC could have catastrophic consequences, including:

• Rapid climate change, meaning a sudden and drastic shift in global weather patterns, leading to extreme weather events.
• Sea level rise. The disruption of ocean circulation patterns could exacerbate sea level rise, particularly in coastal regions.
• Disrupted ecosystems. The changes in ocean temperature and salinity could have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries.

The scientist emphasized the urgent need for immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the risks associated with AMOC collapse. He called upon policymakers and international organizations to prioritize climate action and invest in research to better understand the potential consequences of this critical tipping point.

Nordic Nations Unite Against Deep-Sea Mining

On October 31st, the Nordic Council, meeting in Reykjavik, voted in favor of a moratorium on deep-sea mining. This significant decision, supported by parliamentarians across the Nordic countries, sends a clear message to Iceland and Norway to join their neighbors in protecting the deep sea.

The resolution, backed by a cross-party majority, highlights the potential environmental risks associated with deep-sea mining and calls on Nordic countries to advocate for a precautionary approach. Denmark, Finland, and Sweden have already expressed support for a moratorium. This decision urges Iceland and Norway to join their Nordic neighbours in opposing this potentially hazardous industry. Iceland is currently monitoring developments and considering involvement, while Norway is moving forward with deep-sea mining licenses within its national jurisdiction, despite significant opposition. This resolution, supported by parliamentarians across the Nordic countries, emphasizes the need to protect deep-sea environments and calls for a unified stance against deep-sea mining in international waters.

The International Seabed Authority (ISA) is currently negotiating a mining code that could pave the way for commercial deep-sea mining. Environmental groups and scientists have warned of the potential ecological damage from such activities. The Nordic Council's resolution underscores the urgent need to protect the deep sea and calls on all Nordic countries to deliver on their commitments to sustainable development.

Arctic Fisheries: The Oceans Futures Initiative’s Call for Sustainable Governance

The Oceans Futures initiative, backed by the World Wildlife Fund, Environmental Defense Fund, and Oceankind, aims to protect marine ecosystems and ensure sustainable fisheries. By leveraging data and expert insights, the initiative seeks to address fisheries conflicts, climate change impacts, and other ocean challenges.

The Oceans Futures initiative has highlighted a growing concern in the Arctic : the potential for increased fisheries conflict as climate change alters marine ecosystems. As sea ice recedes, new fishing grounds open up, leading to competition and disputes among nations.

The initiative's analysis of historical data reveals that conflicts often arise from disputes over access to fishing grounds, changes in fish stock health, and broader environmental shifts. The arrival of new fish species in the Arctic, driven by warming waters, has further complicated the situation.

To address these challenges, the Oceans Futures initiative emphasizes the need for robust governance, sustainable fishing practices, and international cooperation. This includes strengthening the Arctic Council, promoting scientific research, and implementing effective monitoring and enforcement measures.

Russia Presents Futuristic Arctic Gas Carrier: Nuclear-Powered Solution

At the International Forum on Shipbuilding and High-Tech Equipment for Arctic and Offshore Development “OMR 2024,” one of the most unique and controversial projects presented was the nuclear-powered underwater gas carrier. This concept, introduced by Mikhail Kovalchuk, President of the Kurchatov Institute, during his presentation titled “Russia’s Arctic Vector,” captured significant media attention. (see prototype in the link)?

The idea of a civilian nuclear submarine serving Gazprom’s interests is novel enough to draw considerable interest. The presentation included a video detailing the vessel’s specifications, highlighting its potential to revolutionize LNG transportation in the Arctic. The nuclear-powered gas carrier is designed to navigate underwater, avoiding ice contact and achieving speeds of up to 17 knots, reducing travel time from 20 to 12 days.

The vessel, developed by the St. Petersburg Marine Engineering Bureau “Malachite,” would integrate into existing LNG transport infrastructure with a cargo capacity of approximately 180,000 tons and a draft of no more than 14 meters. It features membrane tanks for efficient LNG storage and three RITM-200 nuclear reactors powering three 30 MW electric propulsion motors.

Despite the project’s potential, significant challenges remain, including the need for specialized shipyards like Sevmash, which are currently occupied with other projects. The feasibility of constructing even one such vessel, let alone a series, is uncertain without clear timelines, objectives, and funding. Critics have raised concerns about the project’s design, maintenance, and safety.

In summary, while the nuclear-powered underwater gas carrier presents an innovative solution for Arctic LNG transport, its realization depends on strategic decisions, financial support, and overcoming substantial logistical hurdles.

Divergent Arctic Futures: Socio-Economic Implications and Regional Insights

The research article “Divergent trajectories of Arctic change: Implications for future socio-economic patterns,” authored by Abbie Tingstad , Kristin Van Abel, Mia Bennett , Isabelle Winston, Lawson W. Brigham, Scott R. Stephenson, Margaret Wilcox, and Stephanie Pezard, was published in Ambio, a journal of the human environment.

The researchers used a mixed-methods approach that included a literature review and a Delphi forecasting exercise, which involved gathering insights from experts through questionnaires and online discussions. This exercise focused on expert expectations for socio-economic changes in four Arctic sub-regions by 2050.

Regions Definition:

The researchers divided the Arctic into four sub-regions: Barents, Bering-Beaufort, Central Siberia, and Nunavut-Greenland. This division was driven by the need to compare potential outcomes across the Arctic while limiting the number of questions in the Delphi questionnaires. The researchers acknowledge that there are multiple ways to subdivide the Arctic, and a different subdivision could yield different results.

Factors for Sub-Regional Division:

The researchers prioritized cultural and economic factors in creating these sub-regions, although political and physical geography were initially considered. They observed that development outcomes might not be entirely tied to national governments or borders, citing the Barents sub-region as an example. The Barents sub-region features a history of international cooperation between countries and Indigenous Peoples despite encompassing diverse governance structures and political ideologies. This cooperation stemmed from common goals rooted in shared cultural and economic principles. However, the researchers note that the 2022 invasion of Ukraine disrupted this cooperation, highlighting the fragility of such connections.

Findings for the Four Regions:

• Barents. Experts anticipate growth in food production, mining, tourism, and the technology sector. They also predict an expansion of military operations in the region. The likelihood of increased Arctic residency and Indigenous self-determination is considered possible. While there is potential for geopolitical tensions, the region has high levels of inhabitation, infrastructure, investment, and dialogue.
• Bering-Beaufort. Experts are optimistic about growth in food production, tourism, and the technology sector. They also predict an expansion of military operations. However, the future of extractive activities like oil, gas, and mining remains uncertain due to changing environmental policies and ongoing discussions about regulations. The region benefits from existing transportation infrastructure and unique ecology for tourism development.
• Central Siberia. Experts are confident in the continued growth of oil and gas extraction and mining, aligning with the Russian government’s focus on resource development. However, they are pessimistic about Indigenous self-determination and tourism growth in the region. Limited infrastructure and a focus on extractive industries pose challenges to tourism, while environmental damage might restrict food production expansion.
• Nunavut-Greenland. Experts anticipate growth in food production and tourism, while the future of mining activities remains uncertain due to ongoing debates about community benefits. They also predict a high likelihood of expanded Indigenous self-determination. However, there are concerns about limited infrastructure and access to various livelihoods and services, which could hinder population growth and economic expansion.

Future Prospects:

The researchers highlight the concept of “many Arctics,” underscoring the Arctic’s heterogeneity and the diverse socio-economic trajectories across its sub-regions. The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly those exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, add another layer to this concept, leading to a bipolar Arctic split. This division poses challenges to circumpolar cooperation and threatens the progress made in areas like Indigenous rights, environmental protection, and public health.

The researchers emphasize the need for further research to understand the complex interplay of socio-economic and biophysical variables across the Arctic. They suggest frameworks like the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to guide this research. Additionally, addressing the digital divide and finding ways to maintain circumpolar collaboration despite geopolitical tensions are crucial for navigating future challenges.

The study acknowledges some limitations, including the limited number of outcomes considered in the Delphi exercise and potential biases stemming from participant expertise and engagement. They suggest future research focus on individual sub-regions for a more nuanced understanding of regional dynamics. They also encourage incorporating Indigenous knowledge into future research efforts.

Thank you for your continuous interest and support!

Have a great weekend!

yours,

Alexandra