Finland, Sweden on the fast track to Nato membership over Ukraine - NATO will look at providing security guarantees during the interim period
Finland, Sweden on the fast track to Nato membership over Ukraine
SINGAPORE - Finland and Sweden are on the fast track to becoming the newest members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) following their respective governments’ historic announcements on Sunday (May 15) that they will seek membership in the military alliance over?Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The motion will be debated in the Finnish Parliament on Monday, but with a majority of lawmakers in favour and record levels of public support for the proposal, a formal application for Nato membership appears to now only be a formality.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto confirmed the bid?to reporters in the presidential palace in Helsinki a day after informing his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin of the move, prompting Mr Putin to warn that bilateral ties would be hurt.
“Today, the President of the Republic and the Government’s Foreign Policy Committee have jointly agreed that Finland will apply for Nato membership after consulting Parliament. This is a historic day. A new era is opening,” Mr Niinisto said.
“I, or Finland, are not known to sneak around and quietly disappear behind a corner. It is better to say it straight what already has been said, also to the concerned party and that is what I wanted to do,” he added, in reference to his call with Mr Putin.
The Kremlin said in a statement that “Putin stressed that abandoning the traditional policy of military neutrality would be a mistake, since there are no threats to Finland’s security”.
The Finland President downplayed concerns of Russian aggression, asserting that while there would be pushback from Moscow “little by little, I’m beginning to think that we’re not going to face actual military operations”.
Meanwhile, Sweden’s long-ruling Social Democrats?dropped their decades-old policy of military non-alignment on Sunday to open the doors to Nato membership.
While the senior leadership was in favour of reversing their party’s traditional opposition to joining Nato, some dissenting voices had emerged to label any such move as hasty.
But an even greater number of MPs – some of whom had made their support contingent on Finland joining the bloc – threw their support behind the proposal, creating a large parliamentary majority in favour.
The two Nordic nations are now likely to submit a formal application within days, with Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin stating: “Hopefully, we can send our applications next week together with Sweden.”
Nato foreign ministers holding talks over the weekend in Berlin that were focused on the membership bids indicated that the accession process – which usually takes up to a year – would be expedited.
“Germany has prepared everything to do a quick ratification process,” Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said, adding that security guarantees must be extended to assuage fears of Russian retaliation.
“We must make sure that we will give them security guarantees, there must not be a transition period, a grey zone, where their status is unclear,” she said.
The two nations are already de-facto “Nato members, just without membership cards”, she added. Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly was also in favour of speedy ratification. “I hope this can be done within weeks,” she said.
However, not all Nato members were in favour of membership for the two Nordic countries, with Turkey threatening to put a spanner into the works over their alleged support for what it calls terrorist groups. Any enlargement of Nato can only be done through the consensus of all 30 existing members.
“The problem is that these two countries are openly supporting and engaging with the PKK and YPG. These are terrorist organisations that have been attacking our troops every day,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, referring to two Kurdish militant outfits outlawed by Turkey.
“A big majority of the Turkish people are against the membership of those countries...and are asking us to block this membership,” he said.
Other Nato allies expressed their belief that Turkey could be brought to the table.
“I’m confident that we will be able to address the concerns that Turkey has expressed in a way that doesn’t delay the membership or the accession process,” said Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
Separately, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said after talks with his Turkish counterpart: “I’m very confident that we will reach consensus.”
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Handelsblatt: Schweden folgt Finnland in die Nato
Sollte man in das Verteidigungsbündnis aufgenommen werden, wolle man darauf hinwirken, dass keine Atomwaffen auf schwedischem Territorium stationiert werden. Auch wende man sich gegen st?ndige?Nato-Stützpunkte in Schweden, hei?t es in der Erkl?rung. ?In der jetzigen Lage ist es natürlich so, dass wir der Nato beitreten müssen“, sagte Verteidigungsminister Peter Hultqvist.
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Al-Arabiya: Iran considers exporting gas to Europe: Official
Iran is considering the possibility of exporting gas to Europe, an oil ministry official said Sunday against the backdrop of soaring energy prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
?“Iran is studying this subject but we have not reached a conclusion yet,” deputy oil minister Majid Chegeni was quoted as saying by the ministry's official news agency, Shana.?
“Iran is always after the development of energy diplomacy and expansion of the market,” he added.?
Though Iran boasts one of the world’s largest proven gas reserves, its industry has been hit by US sanctions that were reimposed in 2018 when Washington withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.?
Talks aiming to revive the 2015 nuclear deal began last year in Vienna but have been on pause for weeks amid outstanding issues.?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February sent global oil and gas prices soaring, with many European countries dependent on energy imports from Russia.
The situation worsened Wednesday when Kyiv said Russia had halted gas supplies through a key transit hub in the east of the Ukraine, fueling fears Moscow's invasion could worsen an energy crisis in Europe.
Last year, the European Union received around 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, accounting for 45 percent of its imports.?
Iran’s deputy oil minister also confirmed that Tehran and Baghdad had signed a memorandum of understanding a few weeks ago that will see the Islamic republic increase gas exports to Iraq.?
“Gas exports from Iran increased and in this memorandum it was stated that Iraq’s debt of $1.6 billion to Iran will be paid by the end of May,” Chegeni added.?
Despite considerable gas reserves of its own, poor investment due to decades of war and sanctions have left Iraq dependent on imports from its eastern neighbor for a third of its gas needs.
?US sanctions on Iranian oil and gas, however, have complicated Iraq's payments for the imports.?
Baghdad uses a complex payment method to comply with an exemption from US sanctions on Iran. Iraq is not allowed to simply hand over cash to Iran as payments must be used to fund imports of food and medicines.?
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Al-Arabiya: Egypt procures 1.75 mln tons of local wheat so far this season
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Egypt has procured 1.75 million tons of local wheat since the start of its harvesting season, a senior Ministry of Agriculture official said on Sunday.?
Abbas al-Shennawi, head of the ministry’s services sector, also told Reuters that Egypt had harvested 1.5 million feddans (630,000 hectares) of local wheat so far.?
Egyptian Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said last month that the country had made 1.1 billion Egyptian pounds ($60 million) available for a down-payment to state grains buyer GASC and the Agricultural Bank of Egypt to purchase wheat from local farmers.
?Egypt, among the world’s biggest wheat importers, is heavily reliant on shipments from Ukraine and Russia and its government has been seeking alternative supplies from other countries, including India.?
But India banned wheat exports on Saturday, days after saying it was targeting record shipments this year, as a scorching heat wave curtailed output and domestic prices hit a record high.?
After India announced the ban, Egypt’s plant quarantine head Ahmed el-Attar told Reuters that the country was in talks with Indian officials about getting an exemption.?
India said it would still allow exports backed by already issued letters of credit and to countries that request supplies “to meet their food security needs.”?
In April, Egypt’s agriculture ministry announced it had approved India as a source of wheat supplies as the North African country seeks to supplant purchases disrupted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.?
Egypt has been working to diversify its purchases, holding talks with France, Argentina, and the US. El-Attar said on Saturday Egypt was also considering importing wheat from Pakistan and Mexico.?
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Al-Arabiya - UK military intelligence: Russia lost a third of its forces in Ukraine
Russia has probably lost around a third of the ground forces it deployed to Ukraine and its offensive in the Donbas region “has lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule,” British military intelligence said on Sunday.
“Despite small-scale initial advances, Russia has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains over the past month whilst sustaining consistently high levels of attrition,” the British defense ministry said on Twitter.?
“Russia has now likely suffered losses of one third of the ground combat force it committed in February.”
It said Russia was unlikely to dramatically accelerate its rate of advance over the next 30 days.
Since Russia’s invasion on February 24, Ukraine’s military has forced Russia’s commanders to abandon an advance on the capital Kyiv, before making rapid gains in the northeast and driving them away from the second biggest city of Kharkiv.
A Ukrainian counteroffensive has been under way near the Russian-held town of Izium, though Ukraine's military reported on Sunday that Russian forces were advancing elsewhere in the Donbas region, the main theatre of war over the past month.?
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Ukraine ‘can win’ war against Russia, says NATO chief
?Ukraine can defeat Russia’s invasion, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Sunday at a meeting in Berlin, urging the alliance to keep sending military aid to Kyiv, AFP reported.
“Ukraine can win this war. Ukrainians are bravely defending their homeland,” said Stoltenberg, adding that “we must continue to step up and sustain our... support to Ukraine.”
?“Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going as Moscow had planned. They failed to take Kyiv,” Stoltenberg told reporters by video link. “They are pulling back from Kharkiv and their major offensive in Donbass has stalled.”?
The NATO chief added that the alliance will look at providing security guarantees for Finland and Sweden during the interim period from their application for membership to accession.?
“Finland and Sweden are concerned about the interim period... we will try to speed up that process,” the NATO secretary general said.
“We will look into ways to provide security assurances including by increasing NATO presence in the region.”
At the meeting, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that NATO countries are ready to provide military aid to Ukraine to help it repel Russia’s invasion for as long as it needed.
“We agree that we must not and will not let up in our national efforts, especially in terms of military support, for as long as Ukraine needs this support for the self-defense of its country,” Baerbock said.
Stoltenberg also voiced confidence at resolving?Turkey’s concerns on expected membership bids by Sweden and Finland.?
“I am confident we’ll be able to find common ground, consensus on how to move on membership issues,” Stoltenberg told reporters virtually at a NATO meeting in Berlin, adding that he was in touch with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.?
“Turkey made it clear that its intention is not to block membership,” Stoltenberg told reporters virtually after alliance foreign ministers met in Berlin.
He said he was in touch with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu after Ankara alleged that the Nordic nations were home to “terrorists,” a reference to Kurdish separatists.
“I am confident we’ll be able to find common ground, consensus on how to move on membership issues,” Stoltenberg said.?
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Institute for Science and International Security
Russian Military UAV Used in Ukraine Depends on Foreign Parts
By Spencer Faragasso
May 11, 2022
Russia is well known to depend on foreign goods for its military equipment and industries. Recent Ukrainian social media reports illustrate the large fraction of foreign goods in Russia’s Orlan-10, a mid-range, gasoline-engine, propellor-driven reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) widely used by Russian military forces to pinpoint Ukrainian civilian and military targets for artillery strikes. Official Russian sources claim that the Orlan-10 is a “Russian made” UAV, first developed in 2010 by the Russian state-owned firm Special Technology Center (STC) and since used in military action in Syria and Ukraine. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, several Ukrainian social media reports offer a far different narrative. Information on the internal components in recovered or damaged Orlan-10 UAV aircraft are analyzed here, identifying several Western brand components and parts. This information indicates that Russia is highly dependent on sourcing foreign commodities to produce this weapon system vital to Russia’s devastating artillery barrages against military and civilian targets.
The impact of Western sanctions will make sourcing these commodities increasingly difficult for Russia. As a result, the stock of operable vehicles and spare parts would be expected to slowly diminish and force Russia to rely more on Russian-made goods or from other sources.
The Orlan-10 is a relatively low-tech, propellor-driven UAV, launched from a catapult and landing by parachute. Its modular design enables its ground assembly just prior to launch by its operating crew. The UAV is flown remotely from a controller, typically from a command-andcontrol vehicle. Its range of 150 kilometers provides Russian combat forces in Ukraine with reconnaissance information, enabling these forces to fire its artillery more accurately at Ukrainian positions. This UAV can also provide laser guidance for guided munitions. Another variant of this UAV is also suspected to be deployed with signal jamming capabilities. Parts List Open-source information, including videos of captured or downed Orlan-10 UAV, reveals foreign commodities as the key components in the Orlan-10. A list of the known parts produced by companies outside of Russia is in the table below. These components are available on the open market and are relatively inexpensive compared to the complex and advanced systems that typically make up modern combat systems.
Many of the identified components originate from companies based in the United States. Some of the companies are based in Europe, while a smaller number of companies are based in China and Japan. The manufacturers of other parts of the UAV, such as the propellor, wings, tail, and other components could not be identified from the online postings. The procurement pathways or networks acquiring these components could not be identified from the available information. Surprisingly, Russia appears to have decided not to source its domestic industries, perhaps because these industries do not exist or cannot produce reliable parts, such as the Japanese camera lens or U.S. microchips. The claim that the UAV costs close to $100,000 to produce is at odds with the parts list in the table. Based on this figure alone, it would be assumed that the components are specially sourced or specifically designed for the activities that the UAV would undertake. For example, the on-board imaging and targeting camera is what appears to be an off-the-shelf Canon EOS 750D digital camera that’s has a value of $750. In a video demonstration of the UAV published on YouTube in 2018, a Russian soldier can even be seen wearing a Canon branded camera strap (see Figure 2). The true value of the UAV cannot be determined, but based on the available information, it is many thousands, if not tens of thousands less than what is claimed.
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