Finland has already jumped on board, Sweden is still stuck on security screening. How will NATO’s expansion impact Geopolitics?

Written by Francisco Pedro

On the last April 4th, another important chapter was written on history books, as Finland abandoned its 84-year military neutrality and saw its flag being raised outside NATO’s headquarters in Brussels. After applying alongside Sweden to join the alliance in May 2022, Finland becomes the 31st?ally of the most important military organization in the world.?

But how did we get here? What about Sweden? How will Russia respond? Will Finland change NATO’S dynamics? Is this a shape-moving on world politics? In this article we will try to get into some of the questions that we know are on everyone’s minds. Let’s start from the beginning.

As it is known, Vladimir Putin always said the reason to invade Ukraine’s sovereign territory was to prevent NATO’s expansion towards East and to maintain the buffer zone, created after World War II, whose purpose was to separate the Western Nations from the Soviet Union. From this point of view, this marks a strategic and diplomatic loss for Putin, as Russian border with NATO has never been so extensive.

On the other hand, Finland’s entry in NATO is seen as a win-win situation, as the Finns will now be more confident under Article 5 protection, (“An armed attack against one or more nations shall be considered an attack against all”) while the alliance gets the contribution of one of the most-well-structured and modernized military in the world.

According to the requirements for joining NATO, each member has to vote in favor of a new entrance candidate in their respective national parliaments. It happens that since Finland and Sweden handed over their applications on May 18th?2022, there have been two nations that have consistently protested against their entry: Turkey and Hungary.

This month, only one of the Baltic countries received the green light to join the alliance. Nonetheless, the other NATO members are confident they will get the approval to accept Sweden this July, during Vilnius’ summit, in Lithuania.

Why did Finland want to join the alliance?

In order to understand the reasons that changed Finns’ interpretation and perception, which led them to join a military alliance, it is important to be conscious about their history and their relationship with Russia.?

At the turn of the 20th?century, Finland was still under the Russian Empire, which fell apart in 1917. During World War II, the Soviet Union seized the opportunity born by the escalating conflict in Europe and invaded the Finnish territory. Once the war ended, Finland was able to get back its full territory. However, it was agreed that Finland and the Soviet Union would have military neutrality to establish a buffer zone between the Western nations and the Eastern Nations, just as the Soviets desired. In exchange, Finland would be able to conduct its own domestic policy and economic development.?

Up until weeks before the Ukrainian War, which started on 24th?February 2022, less than 1/3 of the Finns wanted to join NATO, since they couldn’t see the advantages of joining the alliance compared to the tension that could arise in their relationship with the Kremlin. By May 2022, Finland’s population radically changed their opinion, and 80% of the citizens now wanted to join NATO, mostly due to their growing fear of the imperialism and expansion strategy that Russia started to pursue with the attack on Ukrainian territory. Moreover, the rising threats between nations on cyber security and nuclear weapons’ subjects also waken up the need for collective defense and coordinated response against any future armed invasion, as dispute for resources and security in the Arctic Ocean and High North has also intensified in the past years.

The Kremlin felt that Helsinki was making a grave historical error that affected its security and national interest. It also stated it would undoubtedly worsen ties with Moscow and destroy its standing as a friendly nation, especially with regard to its position in the Baltic Region. In reaction to Finland's move, Russia reiterated on April 3rd 2023 that it would strengthen its military presence in its northwestern territories.

What can Finland and Sweden bring to NATO??

When discussing how Finland might contribute to the alliance's military capabilities, it is important to start by noting that Helsinki currently spends 2% of its GDP on military. To get an idea of how significant this is, consider the fact that just 7 members uphold this commitment, while the rest shorten up when it comes to investing in the Defense Dept.

Another significant game-changer is the enlargement of NATO’s operation area. Finland and Russia are separated by a 1,340km border. Prior to April 4th, NATO only shared 1,215 km of land border with five NATO members. As new ally comes on board, the military organization more than doubles the land border extension with Moscow. The first argument Putin used to justify its imperialism strategy amid invading Ukraine was the will to stop NATO from advancing Eastward and reaching Russian Borders, which The Kremlin continued to state as the main objective. This month, he achieved precisely the opposite since the inclusion of Finland will strengthen the bonds between Western European and Northern European countries. NATO has now a 1,600km access from the Baltic Sea to the Artic, and comes closer to Kola Peninsula, which has a major strategic importance to Russia, since that is where the Russians keep most of their nuclear capabilities.?

Furthermore, Finland and Sweden still have mandatory military service, even during times of peace. According to the Finnish Constitution, every citizen has to participate in national defense programs. All male citizens between the ages of 18 and 60 are eligible for military service, and women can voluntary enroll as well. During this time, conscripts receive high-quality military training, and when completed, they become a part of the Finnish Defense Forces’ reserve.

Also, since the Finns have been a neutral nation during their whole History as country, they maintained one of the best, modernized and well defended armies in Europe. It can mobilize 800,000 troops, has surface-to-air missiles, rocket systems, and even made a contract in 2021 with the US to buy a 64 Block 4 F-35 fleet, one of the best combat aircraft models in the world.

Finally, the Baltic Nations have one of the strongest artillery forces in Europe and world-class intelligence and cyber agencies. Both Sweden and Finland have their armed forces up to NATO dynamics, as they have been frequently exercising along the alliance. Thus, they are ready to play side by side with the other members.

With Finland and Sweden’s combined forces, the Baltic Sea will become pretty much a NATO territory, as it will strengthen the alliances’ power and reach in the Baltic Region, which will definitely raise concerns inside the Kremlin. Sweden has also an advanced and strong air force, as they manufacturer their own jets, and a submarine fleet specifically tailored to Baltic Sea conditions. The Swedish also have the Patriot long-range air-defense system, anti-submarine ships, and, more importantly, the presence in Gotland, a strategic island that allows the surveillance and monitoring of Russia actions in Kaliningrad and the control of Baltic’s Sea and Air Space.

Why did Turkey veto Finland and Sweden?

Although Finland joined NATO in a record time, the two Baltic Nations’ applications were put on hold for 1 year, as they needed the approval of all member states to become allies. What reasons led Turkey and Hungary to block the organization’s expansion?

The biggest concern for Turkey, which has been raised frequently over the past year, is the alleged Finland and Sweden’s hosting of Kurdistan Workers' Party members and other affiliates of Kurdish organizations, which are considered by Erdogan as terrorists and anti-regime, despite denials from both Nordic countries. On the other hand, Turkey demanded the lifting on defense industry bans, as Ankara said Finland and Sweden were barring the Turkish from buying weapons. It is also known that Turkey has been attempting to close a deal with the US for a F16-fleet, which has also been blocked since the moment Ankara purchased a S-400 Air Defense system from Russia back in 2017. Erdogan, however, claimed that he had resumed talks with the Nordic countries following the announcement of this agreement. Sweden and Finland in particular have demonstrated a resolve to comply with Turkish requests in the recent months. Ankara’s strategic and diplomatic power throughout the Ukrainian War may have been a key factor to accept its conditions, as Helsinki and Stockholm said they would cooperate on the fight against the Turkish terrorist organizations and would lift the embargo regarding weapons sale. In contrast to Finland, Sweden is still not getting a green light, because Ankara states it has to show a stronger commitment to those conditions. On March 17th, after Hungary and Turkey’s announcement to accept Finland as a new ally, Erdogan applauded the Finns for taking “authentic and concrete steps” while criticizing Sweden for not handing over the Kurdish organizations’ members, as he demanded. Turkey also stated that the Swedish have been criticizing its violation of human rights and disregard for democratic principles. It also objected to protests in Stockholm during which the Koran, the Muslim holy book, was burned, as well as the hanging upside-down of an effigy of Erdogan, on a separate occasion, both of which displeased Turkish leaders and cast a negative light on Sweden's admission into the alliance.

On May 14th, there is a potential scenario that might significantly alter Stockholm's ambitions to join NATO. Analysts believe that if Erdogan loses the presidential elections, which is a serious possibility, Stockholm's prospects of a quick admission may increase.

Is Hungary just making bluff??

Following the Nordic countries’ application, NATO members recurred to their national parliaments to vote their admission. At first, Hungary claimed that its MPs were too caught up with internal parliamentary work to vote on the application at that time. It comes out that their main concern was to pass the legislation required by the European Commission for Hungary to be able to receive 5.8B€ from the COVID-19 European Union funds. Due to corruption problems, the EU had prohibited Hungary from accessing these funds unless Orbán committed to pass laws addressing concerns of rule of law, such as LGBTQ+ rights and the independence of the judicial system. It is possible that Viktor Orbán noticed Erdogan's success in pressing his demands and believed he could use his veto power to do the same. By pressing NATO members, he would at the same time be indirectly pressuring a sizable contingent of EU members.?

Besides, Turkey is not the only country that expresses discontentment with Finland and Sweden’s criticisms, as Orbán declared in a radio station in February that “It’s not right for (Sweden and Finland) to ask us to take them on board while they’re spreading blatant lies about Hungary, about the rule of law in Hungary, about democracy, about life here”.

Orbán has consistently opposed EU policies since his earliest days as Prime Minister, because this strategy typically wins him a lot of the domestic votes, especially the nationalist bloc. Therefore, by vetoing Sweden and Finland, he expects to make Hungary look like an important country that can obstruct NATO’s policy and gain influence to have his demands met.

Additionally, Turkey and Hungary’s commercial relations have been improving in the last years, and even an important military agreement that involved intelligence cooperation between the two countries was signed in 2022. Then, by exercising its veto authority, Hungary may have shown support for the Turkish decision, as way of gaining power inside their friendship.

Another interesting point that has caused concern regarding Budapest’s hesitation and delay, particularly among EU countries, is the close relationship with Russia and unpredictability when it comes to its position on the Ukrainian War. The conflict of interests between the EC and Orbán led his government to threaten some of the EU’s sanctions against Russia, to veto an 18B€ aid package to Ukraine in 2022 and to even struck a deal with Russia's gas giant?Gazprom?despite the EU’s intentions to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. In another example of Hungary’s disruptive behavior, the country also blocked Ukraine from joining NATO’s Cyber Defense Center. The Hungarian FM even commented that” inviting Ukraine to NATO meetings undermines the principle of the alliance’s unity”. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, Budapest has not only barred providing any kind of military assistance to Kyiv, but also blocked military aid from other NATO countries’ military from crossing the Hungarian-Ukrainian border in several cases.

Nevertheless, the fact is that at the beginning of March, a delegation of Hungarian MPs travelled to the North to discuss the 2 countries’ membership. Secondly, Sweden is one of Hungary’s most important military suppliers, as can be seen by the military contracts that have been done between the 2 countries since the?first Orbán government in 2001[AA1]?. This suggests that developing defense cooperation with Sweden may be in Orbán's best interests. Budapest's veto may be lifted if Ankara's response goes in the same direction, just as it occurred with Finland's acceptance.

How will Geopolitical evolve?

As we have been discussing throughout this essay, the simple admission of one member to the strongest military alliance in the world sparked a number of changes in international relations that will have an impact on the new international order. Therefore, there are some significant geopolitical developments that we may discuss and predict, particularly in the relationship between the West and the East, just as it happened amid the Cold War.

Following Finland’s announcement, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would strengthen its defenses and military presence near the Finnish?[AA2]?border, as the Russians are being forced to take countermeasures to ensure its security in the region and keep a check on NATO’s activity.

Some Analysts claim that is possible that Putin may adopt a similar approach against Finland as he did months prior to invading Ukraine, including the use of military force to intimidate and threat the country. But we must keep in mind that unlike Ukraine, Finland is now a NATO member. Therefore, an attack to its sovereign territory would escalate the tensions between the alliance and Russia, as NATO would be obliged to intervene by its law. Considering the alignment of Russia Military forces today fighting in Ukraine, the objectives planned by Kremlin to achieve by the end of this conflict and the level of progress made in the battle theatre, it is highly improbable that Putin will radically alter its stance and increase military presence in the Northwest. By mobilizing troops to fight back Finland’s move, Russia would be undermining their war strategy in Ukraine, as they would be walking into defeat.

Another possibility is that in the post-war period,?Russia?[AA3]?may seek to engage in dialogue and cooperation with NATO in order to maintain an equilibrium in international relations, as the Russians did after the Soviet Union collapsed. However, any such efforts to reduce tensions between the two poles would need to be carefully considered against the broader geopolitical realities and the ongoing concerns about the Kremlin’s interference in Western politics and elections, especially in the US. In addition, after the Russian intervention in Georgia in 2008, in?Moldova?[AA4]?since the 90s, in Crimea in 2014, and now Ukraine, it is extremely difficult that the West will trust Putin and reestablish diplomatic ties with Russia in the next decades. Besides, it would be a loss for Putin’s imperial vision, as by reestablishing relations with NATO members as a way to promote world peace and stability would be admitting that he had no power nor authority to counter-attack NATO’s actions.

Despite this, it is expected new military moves in the following years, including increased military spending, the deployment of additional troops and military equipment to the border regions in the future, and the development of new strategic alliances with other countries, other than the westerns, just like Putin has been doing with Iran, Kazakhstan, Belarus, or even China.?

Sweden and Finland’s strong military presence and capabilities in the Baltic Region will also make Russia’s access to its enclave of Kaliningrad more difficult, and the activities of Russian Navy will be severely monitored and restricted by the alliance. As it is known, NATO members regularly exchange fighters and other aircraft to guard against unidentified planes, including Russian ones. Along with the Finnish and Swedish Air Force participation in these operations, NATO’s aerial security will become more powerful and have a significant impact on the Kremlin’s missions in the Baltic Sea.

Finally, the last geopolitical arena that can be impacted by the admission of the Baltic Nations into NATO is the Artic Region dispute with Russia. The Arctic Region is becoming the focus of international collaboration and conflict over sea lanes and natural resources. In the last years, the Kremlin has been increasing its military presence and operations in this region, and NATO sees the Arctic as an emerging warfighting zone alongside outer space and cyberspace. By working more closely with its new allies, NATO will definitely further speed up its involvement in the region. As so, members may contribute to a militarization of the area, potentially rising tensions and increasing the risk of conflict with Russia. Some security studies academics have alerted for this situation, claiming that the Arctic is becoming into a crucial arena for geopolitical conflict involving not just Russia and the US but also other countries competing for influence and dominance.

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