“Will Finland change after the election?”

“Will Finland change after the election?” – I’ve received questions from international friends regarding the future expectations of Finland after the election on Sunday, especially after a visible Prime Minister will (most likely) change. Below a short summary with some key points to consider.

So on Sunday, Finland had a tight election with three main political parties receiving almost the same amount of votes. The winner was the ?? Coalition party with 20,8 % of the votes. They represent more liberal-conservative politics compared to current PM Sanna Marin’s ?? Social Democratic Party (SDP) placed 3rd with 19,9% of the votes.?2nd placed the ?? “Finns Party” (20,1%).

THE BIGGEST FINNISH POLITICAL PARTIES SIMPLIFIED

?? The National Coalition Party: A classic “Nordic” liberal-conservative aiming for more privatisation and a tighter financial budget. Their leader Petteri Orpo will start forming the government next week.

?? The Finns Party – Leader Riikka Purra: Representing “today’s working class” (previously strongly associated with SDP). The Finns party is known to be more populistic, sceptical towards immigration and aims, in the long run, to “take back control” of Finnish decision rights (like the EU).

?? The Social Democratic Party (SDP) – Leader and current PM Sanna Marin: As the name says, more socialistic in their style, historically a strong party “building the Finnish/Nordic welfare model” where the government plays a crucial role in developing and actively operating wide range of welfare services.

MAIN ELECTION TOPIC – WHAT DID FINLAND CHOOSE

The main topic of the election was the economy, and how much of the welfare services will be cut to decrease Finnish debt (currently €144Bb, GDP relation 67% and expected to grow to 75% BY 2027). Finland has been left behind by the other Nordic countries since the 2008 financial crisis.

The previous government had extreme four years to handle and solved it with increasing debt. The government (Sanna) received high satisfaction rates for handling the crisis, but now the general mood turned towards the economy, which the current government was not associated with. Finns are classically very careful with their finances and there is now a strong will to put the economy “back on track”. All the parties agree on this, it's just the question of how this will be done.

GOVERNMENT ALTERNATIVES + WILL FINLAND CHANGE?

There are currently two main alternatives for Finland to form a government to reach majority (out of 200 seats):

• ???? Coalition party X SDP (Sanna) + other minor parties = Looking from the outside, things will stay the same. Internally there will be more privatisation and cuts from the welfare services
• ???? Coalition party X “Finns Party” + other minor parties = Finland might get harsher and more populistic in its messages, but in general, things will maintain the same looking from the outside as long as the Coalition Party steers the wheels. There will be even harder cuts in welfare services and privatisation, with the aim of taking down debt.

So, in general, the expectation is that Finland will not change its “public profile” or change too much of its current activities towards international agreements. As with any political party, they are all aiming to build a more prosperous future, but the main question is at which cost: welfare services and nature. So far the “green strategy” has led to more positive outcomes and the national goal to become carbon neutral by 2035 is channelling more projects and investments.

p.s. this was supposed to be just a short LinkedIn update, but somehow exceed the 3000 character limit.