Finger on the Trigger

Full length sawed-off 0.315 bore rifles. Four body guards. A river.

This is what one sees at Tikamgarh in MP, India. The drought of 2015-2016 hit the district badly; the rainfall it received this monsoon is just half of the average it receives every year. Residents of Tikamgarh have no option but to rely on Baarighat and Raajghat, the two stop dams on the Jaamni River for drinking water supply for the next six months at least, and farmers downstream in MP, and in neighbouring UP eye the same river for quenching the thirst of their parched farms. With uncertainty about the coming monsoon and summer looming large, water is scarce, and the Jaamni River is precious enough for its riparian villages to resort to arms and ammunition for its safeguarding.

The story will alarm a large section of the growing urban middle class of India, but more disturbingly, not surprise an even larger section of the country. Water scarcity is increasingly felt across India. As population and economy grow rapidly and more and more Indians aspire to achieve a higher standard of living, the pressure on natural resources is mounting. Various sections of society and sectors of the economy are locked in an intense competition over access, control and ownership of these precious resources and the outcome is, more often than not, widespread resentment and conflict.

That water is fundamental for human survival and an essential input for agriculture is no news. A growing population will need not only more water for drinking and sanitation, but also more food, the production of which will need more water. It will also need electricity, healthcare and means of transport, all of which need water for either production, or maintenance, or sustenance. Water is important for religion and recreation too, not to mention its enduring aesthetic appeal which provides a substantial boost to real estate and tourism.

The list is long, if not endless, and we are not even including the water needs of animals, birds, trees and the rest of the environment.

The supply side is alarming because of three major characteristics. One, that it is rather limited and scarce: 99% of the water on earth is either salty and unfit for human consumption, or locked away in glaciers and at the poles, and out of the 1% freshwater we can consume, 0.5-0.75% is locked underground. Two, it is unevenly distributed across the globe, meaning that some areas enjoy natural abundance of water while some face natural scarcity. Three, and the most important one, is that a large number of lake and river basins (276 of them) containing freshwater are shared by two or more countries, while many more rivers, lakes, ponds, streams, springs and rivulets are shared by different regions and communities within countries.

Together, these three aspects of water supply form an explosive combination. Man has tried to address all three through technology with mixed results; notably, in the case of damming, the results have often been socio-economically and environmentally disastrous. The fundamentality of water for human survival combined with its scarcity and naturally inequitable distribution can quickly escalate competition to full-scale conflicts if not addressed in a holistic and timely manner.

The demand side is ever-expanding, with little efforts towards any serious water quantity or quality conservation. In many parts of the world if not all, it is suicidal for government to crack down on wasteful use of water, impose water charges at market rates, and implement any strict measures for controlling demand. Indeed, the bulk of water use (more than 2/3rds) is by agriculture. Many countries with largely agrarian economies are also developing countries, dealing with poverty, population explosion, and often, quite unstable/weak governments. Their water supply systems are characteristically poorly constructed and/or maintained, leading to leakages and other inefficiencies in water supply. The same conditions extend to sewage treatment, water recycling, and collection of water charges. Besides, they also have to address the pressing needs of food security for a large population and industrialisation and hence, these countries hesitate to impose any strict measures of water control on the general population.

Coupled with the demand and supply issues is another factor – climate change. Largely outside human control, climate change is basically long-term change in the Earth’s climate and weather patterns. While we do know that climate change will manifest itself in rise and fall in precipitation and temperature, we do not know where and what exactly the changes will be. Dealing with such a global phenomenon with little information and inadequate coping mechanisms is going to be a challenge in the future.

Countries such as (and especially) India and China are a hotbed for the resultant conflicts in the future. Indeed, conflicts are brewing in the present as well. Both are the most populous countries on Earth and span over a large and varied geographical area. Both are developing fast, home to a heterogeneous population, and seeing a rapid decline in their water resources, both in terms of quality and quantity. Both house transboundary basins over which they are yet to establish any holistic and full-fledged cooperation, not only between the two, but also with other neighbours. As these economies grow, their thirst will grow too. Internal conflicts, at the very least, would be as severe as transboundary ones.

The situation, thus, is extremely tricky, but it is only one side of the story. Examples of water conflict resolution can be found, too. Through the OMVS (in English, the Senegal River Basin Development Authority) in West Africa, or the cooperation of nine countries over the Rhine in Europe, cooperation over and through water is very much a reality. In Asia, the Indus River Commission has survived three Indo-Pak wars, while China recently agreed to cooperate with East Asian countries over the Mekong. Water recycling and reuse technology is developed and utilised in arid and semi-arid countries such as Jordan, Israel, Bahrain etc. where water scarcity is the current reality. Hence, any argument suggesting that water conflicts are both inevitable and insurmountable does not necessarily hold merit.

However, the deterioration outpaces the conservation and cooperation efforts. Large parts of the world, most of which are also either populous or housing a fast-growing population, are still deprived of water technology, the framework for cooperation, and also the political will required to tackle the water crisis. Moreover, water is considered as a human right but treated as an economic good and maintaining the balance is rather challenging for both, the policymakers as well as governments and bureaucracy. While their pursuit of water conservation and sufficient supply is often tarred with vested political and strategic interests, NGOs, activists, researchers and ordinary people from the civil society are increasingly coming up with their own ways to deal with the impending water crisis.

Gunmen guarding sections of a river in Madhya Pradesh is only a small indicator of the lengths people are ready to go in order to secure their water supply. While most of us think little about the clear-looking liquid that flows at the turn of the tap, millions are scouring the earth for a trickle of water. They can see the resultant disparity and unfairness, and they are silently questioning it. It won’t be long before their voices grow loud enough and translate into action.

Boutros Boutros-Ghali, former UN Secretary-General, once remarked – “The next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics.” As time passes, this seems to apply to other parts of the world too. We have no choice but to address the water crisis and act on it with speed and priority, or face the adverse consequences of the disastrous conflict looming at the horizon.

References:

Pateriya, Anupam; Noronha, Rahul. “In drought-hit Bundelkhand, gunmen are hired to guard water body”. Hindustan Times. 4 Feb, 2016. Web. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india/in-drought-hit-bundelkhand-gunmen-hired-to-guard-water-body/story-Hd7AfinUNDk6fm9qOKE3bO.html 

Transboundary Waters. UN WATER. 7 Oct, 2014. Web.  https://www.unwater.org/topics/transboundary-waters/en/